Originally posted by TheLurch
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ID and coronavirus conspiracy theories
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Originally posted by TheLurch View PostSo, one, you're refusing to acknowledge the extensive discussions of the literature on these mutations, which show the two mutations did not have to occur simultaneously.
Second, you're attempting to apply the evolution of drug resistance to completely unrelated contexts.
Third, you're ignoring that fact that a vast number of neutral mutations always exist in all populations, and thus the raw material for evolution of new functions pre-exists the selective pressures for them.
Blessings,
Lee"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostBut mutations are statistically independent, so the probability is the same, whether the mutations occur simultaneously, or not.
With neutral mutations, they can occur many generations apart.
Larry Moran would disagree...
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostLAURENCE A. MORAN is not a reliable source.
Simultaneous mutations are not necessary
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostBut mutations are statistically independent, so the probability is the same, whether the mutations occur simultaneously, or not.
Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostLarry Moran would disagree...
Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostThat apparently wasn't the case for the malaria parasite, which required some time to develop resistance."Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."
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Originally posted by Stoic View PostNo, the probability of them occurring simultaneously is much lower than the probability of them occurring up to many generations apart.
With neutral mutations, they can occur many generations apart.
Blessings,
Lee"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
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Originally posted by TheLurch View PostThe quote doesn't address what i said. Try again.
You don't actually know that. It's entirely possible that one or even both mutations existed in the population prior to the experience of selective pressure (malarial parasites undergo sexual reproduction, so you can have recombination events that combine separate mutations). What may have taken time was the combination becoming prevalent enough in an area with sufficient healthcare resources for us to recognize it existed.
Blessings,
Lee"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
Comment
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostEvolutionary biologists agree about the low probability, regardless of the context.
A something that has absolutely nothing to do with whole-genome virus evolution.
Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostBehe, as I recall, calculated the probability of the two mutations arriving after chloroquine was introduced, and it fits with the timing when resistance developed.
Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostWith statistically independent events, the probability is not dependent on the timing of the events. So if you roll three dice, or if you roll one die three times, the probability of getting three 3s is the same."Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostWith statistically independent events, the probability is not dependent on the timing of the events. So if you roll three dice, or if you roll one die three times, the probability of getting three 3s is the same.
Blessings,
Lee
You roll the dice as many times as it takes for one of the three numbers to come up, and then you roll it as many times as it takes for one of the other numbers to come up, and then you roll it as many times as it takes for the third number to come up.
Simultaneous mutations would be akin to expecting the 3 numbers to be rolled sequentially.
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Originally posted by Stoic View PostThe dice aren't being rolled 3 times. They are being rolled countless times.
You roll the dice as many times as it takes for one of the three numbers to come up, and then you roll it as many times as it takes for one of the other numbers to come up, and then you roll it as many times as it takes for the third number to come up.
Simultaneous mutations would be akin to expecting the 3 numbers to be rolled sequentially.
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
Comment
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Originally posted by Stoic View PostYou roll the dice as many times as it takes for one of the three numbers to come up, and then you roll it as many times as it takes for one of the other numbers to come up, and then you roll it as many times as it takes for the third number to come up.
Simultaneous mutations would be akin to expecting the 3 numbers to be rolled sequentially.
Blessings,
Lee"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
Comment
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostConsidering how many times and in how many ways it has been explained that a sequence of mutations do not need to occur simultaneously folks like Behe cannot be ignorant of it but are instead being intentionally dishonest when they keep saying otherwise.
Blessings,
Lee"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
Comment
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostWell, the mutations have to be simultaneously present, so simultaneous in that sense, but the probability of independent events occurring is the same, no matter when the events occur.
But even if we grant him that premise for some hypothetical case, then he's got to show that the existence of neutral mutations in the population is rare, and there aren't many of them floating around. If he can't show that, then the probability of one or both of these pre-existing the arrival of selection is much higher. But, given the fact that we know neutral mutations are the most common type, and huge numbers of neutral variants exist in every population, i don't get how he could claim that.
So it's both a bad argument and based on a false premise.
And, in any case, it's a huge side track from the topic under discussion, which is that the only analysis of the coronavirus genome has been done by biologists, and not the ID crowd, because after all these years, they've not developed any tools to analyze genomes."Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostWell, the mutations have to be simultaneously present, so simultaneous in that sense, but the probability of independent events occurring is the same, no matter when the events occur.
Blessings,
Lee
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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