The weather for 2017

[shunyadragon]

Like the previous threads on annual weather and temperature trends this thread will follow these trends for 2017. Also the relationship between the El Nino/La Nina cycle will be compared to the temperature and weather data. I do not predict that 2017 will be another record breaker, but I believe it will be above average. The preliminary data is in for January 2017 and it is globally warmer then the 30 yer average.

Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/01/global-temperature-report-january-2017/

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade
January temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.27 C (about 0.49 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.33 C (about 0.59 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
Tropics: +0.07 C (about 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.
December temperatures (revised):

Global Composite: +0.24 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.19 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.21 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Feb. 1, 2017:

Temperatures in the tropical atmosphere continued to drop in January as temperatures there moved closer to their long-term averages, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Composite temperatures over both hemispheres, however, bumped slightly warmer in January, especially in the higher latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, pockets of warmer than normal air were especially pronounced over the eastern U.S., Canada and the North Atlantic. In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and a large area of southern ocean between South America and New Zealand were warmer than normal.

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[sylas]

There are indications that El Nino may be coming back already this year.

From the most recent Australian Bureau of Meteorology ENSO wrap up:


Comment on this from the weather underground blog: :

[stfoskey15]

Meanwhile, here in Australia we are having a nasty heat wave. Beaches closed, kids off to hospital from overheating, really nasty.

Why would you close beaches when it's hot? Wouldn't the water be a good place to cool off?

[sylas]

Why would you close beaches when it's hot? Wouldn't the water be a good place to cool off?

Beaches were closed in Queensland due to poor ocean conditions and a big swell. But IMO, a beach isn't that great a place in a heat wave. A beach gets very hot, with not much shade or facilities. The sand can get hot enough to burn.

[oxmixmudd]

Why would you close beaches when it's hot? Wouldn't the water be a good place to cool off?

On many coastlines that is true, but clearly not down under, or at least where sylas is. The US Pacific coast waters are so cool one usually needs a jacket or windbreaker, and even the south Florida beaches get a cooling breeze off the ocean, though I,ve been on southeastern US beaches many times when you had to wear some sort of flip flop or other foot covering to keep the sand farther from the water from burning one's feet.

Jim

[shunyadragon]

There are indications that El Nino may be coming back already this year.

From the most recent Australian Bureau of Meteorology ENSO wrap up:


Comment on this from the weather underground blog: :

The qualification of 'may come back' is important. I will take a 'cautious wait and see' view, because the transition period between El Nino and La Nina can be longer or less clear tan expected.

[sylas]

The qualification of 'may come back' is important. I will take a 'cautious wait and see' view, because the transition period between El Nino and La Nina can be longer or less clear tan expected.

Yes... it says something like that in the extracts I included already. See the bit in the BOM extract:

That ENSO outlook from BOM Australia also included a nice graph showing the large spread of model projections.
20170131.poama_nino34.jpg

About this time last year, in your previous thread, I made a guesstimate for 2016 global anomaly msg #2 of thread "The weather for 2016". Couldn't do the same this year; situation much more murky. But it's interesting to see that the range of short term projections do include this possibility.

Cheers -- sylas

[TheLurch]

January results are in at GISS:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

[stfoskey15]

What do you mean? 2011 and 2012 were colder than 2010, while 2008 was colder than 2007.

[TheLurch]

What do you mean? 2011 and 2012 were colder than 2010, while 2008 was colder than 2007.

[shunyadragon]

What do you mean? 2011 and 2012 were colder than 2010, while 2008 was colder than 2007.

It is the overall trend in the el nino/la nina cycle and not certain years cooler (colder?) than others. My view of the trend is that the future la nina years will be warmer than previous la nina years. This year may be a farly warm year, and represent a transitional year, if we do enter the la nina part of the cycle.

[shunyadragon]

[shunyadragon]

Wait! Reports and rumors of the demise of the El Nino may be wishful thinking! The previous UAH reference got the temp data right, but speculation on the passing of the El Nino may be wrong. If the trend continues this will be the record shortest La Nina in recorded history.

[shunyadragon]

Temperature records for March 2017

[shunyadragon]

Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/uah-global-temperature-update-for-march-2017-0-19-deg-c/

UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2017: +0.19 deg. C
April 3rd, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2017 was +0.19 deg. C, down from the February, 2017 value of +0.35 deg. C (click for full size version):


The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 15 months are:

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84
2016 02 +0.83 +1.16 +0.50 +0.98
2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.08
2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93
2016 05 +0.54 +0.64 +0.44 +0.71
2016 06 +0.33 +0.50 +0.17 +0.37
2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.29 +0.47
2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.31 +0.49
2016 09 +0.44 +0.49 +0.38 +0.37
2016 10 +0.40 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46
2016 11 +0.45 +0.40 +0.50 +0.37
2016 12 +0.24 +0.18 +0.30 +0.21
2017 01 +0.30 +0.26 +0.33 +0.07
2017 02 +0.35 +0.54 +0.15 +0.05
2017 03 +0.19 +0.30 +0.07 +0.03

The cooling in March occurred virtually everywhere, with 23 of the 26 subregions we track having cooler anomalies than in February.

The UAH LT global anomaly image for March, 2017 should be available in the next few days here.

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