Originally posted by Sparko
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Recent Covid-19 infections and the unvaccinated
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
You have pointed out nothing of substance nor provided any references to support your case.
Still waiting.
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
There is no exact number needed for herd immunity. It's basically "the more, the better".
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Originally posted by Sparko View Post
The fact remains that Fauci lied and admitted it, just tossing out any number he wanted. But while there is no exact number, there is a range where a disease will not be able to spread depending on it's R0 value (how infectious it is).
We do know that if "enough" people are immune, then the prevalence of the disease will decrease. But "enough" for this summer won't necessarily be "enough" for the coming winter. And "enough" while people are still practicing social distancing won't necessarily be "enough" when they go back to their previous behavior.
As someone without immunity, your risk decreases whenever someone gets vaccinated. Fauci wants as many people as possible to be vaccinated. You should be on his side.
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostAnd some folks are shocked that many of us don't trust him.
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
The problem is, we don't know exactly what the value of R0 is. But we know that it is different in different places, and that it changes over time. It changes with the weather, and it changes with people's behavior, and it's higher in places with a higher population density. And it gets higher with new variants.
We do know that if "enough" people are immune, then the prevalence of the disease will decrease. But "enough" for this summer won't necessarily be "enough" for the coming winter. And "enough" while people are still practicing social distancing won't necessarily be "enough" when they go back to their previous behavior.
As someone without immunity, your risk decreases whenever someone gets vaccinated. Fauci wants as many people as possible to be vaccinated. You should be on his side.
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Originally posted by Sparko View Post
I do want as many people vaccinated as possible. I don't think Fauci lying to "bump up the numbers" is a good way to accomplish that. People are already suspicious of him. Him lying does nothing to help earn anyone's trust.
I'm going to get my first later this month, as openings suddenly became available (pretty much got a choice time). I've heard that Georgia is refusing new vaccine shipments because enrollment has dropped precipitously. I think there are several reasons for this, and Fauci looking rather duplicitous is among them.
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by Sparko View Post
I do want as many people vaccinated as possible. I don't think Fauci lying to "bump up the numbers" is a good way to accomplish that. People are already suspicious of him. Him lying does nothing to help earn anyone's trust.
My own guess is that it may be 50% (or less) in Florida in the summer with the original virus, and 90% in New York City in the winter with the Delta variant. (But you can't stamp out the disease in Florida if people are still getting it in New York City.)
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
IMO, someone in Fauci's position has the option of telling people what the latest scientific estimates are, or what he himself believes, and it isn't lying. Especially when we're talking about something that is at best a guess, in any case.
My own guess is that it may be 50% (or less) in Florida in the summer with the original virus, and 90% in New York City in the winter with the Delta variant. (But you can't stamp out the disease in Florida if people are still getting it in New York City.)
So he either lied in order to "nudge it up a bit" or he was lying before and downplaying the number to reach herd immunity. And he did it based on polls, not science.
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Originally posted by Sparko View Post
“When polls said about half of all Americans would take a vaccine… I thought, ‘I can nudge this up a bit,'” Fauci told the Times.
So he either lied in order to "nudge it up a bit" or he was lying before and downplaying the number to reach herd immunity. And he did it based on polls, not science.
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A more charitable interpretation would simply be that there were varying estimates and he went with the higher estimates to try to encourage people, not that he was actually lying about it.
Whether that charitable interpretation is true or not, I am not sure... but it is a possible interpretation of his remarks.
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Originally posted by Sparko View Post
Or he was lying. Why do you feel the need to defend Fauci at every turn?
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostEven the staunchest Trump supporters here would agree that he occasionally mixed things up, got it wrong and played fast and lose with the truth (I doubt that there is a politician who doesn't). But Stoic here shows a willingness to die on every hill often defending the indefensible.
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