Originally posted by pancreasman
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The odds will be dependent upon the number of possible choices. 6 religions, one in 6. 30,000 religions 1 in 30,000. We make choices among them anyway. And we cannot chose what we do not know can be a choice. The odds are against us.
I'm also wary of 'obvious' truths. It's 'obvious' the sun revolves around the Earth, it's 'obvious' heavy things fall faster than light things. If we make so many errors with physical things how can we hope to recognise 'obvious' metaphysical truths?
Before I knew about Pascal's wager, I had proposed a method to test ideas that were not otherwise empirically testable. When I had presented it on a BBS discussion forum, I was told that it was Pascal's wager.
The method takes only two views at a time. One is premised to be true, while the other is premised not to be true. And it is further premised what one is believing is the view which is not true.
Then the roles are reversed the one premised to be true is then instead premised to be false and the one premised to be false is then instead premised to be true. Again, premising the one premised to be false, is the one that is being believed.
The idea is to get an equal comparison of those two views. And the likelihood the one believed is the one that is not true. Which would be the one to be wrong about, if the other is true?
Then pick another view to compare with the view that was chosen from the other set. And so on and so forth. Only comparing two views at a time. Understanding the more choices the more likely a wrong choice will be made. And there is no guarantee that any of the two views are ever the really true thing to believe.
Now of course one really does not want to pick what is not really true. But it is a comparison test. And different people getting the same result will still make different choices. It makes sense to me. But others dismiss it.
It is a method to compare. One does not have to make any choice at all using the method. And that too my friend is a choice too. Just one more of the choices to make.
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