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Joe Biden's advantage over Trump with Black voters is currently smaller than Hillary Clinton's was
(CNN)
The death of George Floyd and subsequent protests reshaped the presidential race. It brought race relations, racism and police brutality to the forefront.
In that time, former Vice President Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump expanded from about six points to closer to 10 points.
Interestingly, however, Trump continues to do something perhaps unexpectedly among Black voters: Hold his own against Biden relative to many people's expectations.
There have been over 10 national live interview polls since the protests began for which I could assess Black voter sentiment in the presidential race. Altogether, we're looking at well more than 1,000 interviews.
Biden leads in those polls by an 83% to 8%, or 75-point, margin. That, of course, is a huge advantage for Biden, but it also represents a small improvement for Trump since 2016.
Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by a 79-point margin among Black registered voters in the pre-election polls taken right before the 2016 election, as compiled by the New York Times' Nate Cohn.
Biden, for what it's worth, is equaling Clinton's 83% in those polls. Trump's picking up a lot of the vote that went to third-party candidates.
Given the way margins of error work (i.e. it gets smaller as the result gets more extreme), this slight improvement for Trump from 2016 is statistically significant.
Biden currently has such a large lead overall that Trump's small gain among Black voters doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of the 2020 election. But if the race for president tightens, Trump's small gain with Black voters could make a difference. It could cost Biden 0.5 points nationally on the whole compared to where Clinton ended up. That may not seem like a lot, though it could make the difference in a close election. And, of course, Biden's margin with Black voters may tighten further if the margin with other voters also shifts.
Historically, Trump is doing as well and probably even a touch better than Republicans normally do among Black voters. While we don't have a bulk of pre-election polling for many prior years like we do for 2016, the American National Election Studies pre-election polls show that since 1964, the average Democrat has earned 86% to the average Republican's 6%. That 80-point margin is wider than the current 75-point margin Biden current earns.
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The death of George Floyd and subsequent protests reshaped the presidential race. It brought race relations, racism and police brutality to the forefront.
In that time, former Vice President Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump expanded from about six points to closer to 10 points.
Interestingly, however, Trump continues to do something perhaps unexpectedly among Black voters: Hold his own against Biden relative to many people's expectations.
There have been over 10 national live interview polls since the protests began for which I could assess Black voter sentiment in the presidential race. Altogether, we're looking at well more than 1,000 interviews.
Biden leads in those polls by an 83% to 8%, or 75-point, margin. That, of course, is a huge advantage for Biden, but it also represents a small improvement for Trump since 2016.
Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by a 79-point margin among Black registered voters in the pre-election polls taken right before the 2016 election, as compiled by the New York Times' Nate Cohn.
Biden, for what it's worth, is equaling Clinton's 83% in those polls. Trump's picking up a lot of the vote that went to third-party candidates.
Given the way margins of error work (i.e. it gets smaller as the result gets more extreme), this slight improvement for Trump from 2016 is statistically significant.
Biden currently has such a large lead overall that Trump's small gain among Black voters doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of the 2020 election. But if the race for president tightens, Trump's small gain with Black voters could make a difference. It could cost Biden 0.5 points nationally on the whole compared to where Clinton ended up. That may not seem like a lot, though it could make the difference in a close election. And, of course, Biden's margin with Black voters may tighten further if the margin with other voters also shifts.
Historically, Trump is doing as well and probably even a touch better than Republicans normally do among Black voters. While we don't have a bulk of pre-election polling for many prior years like we do for 2016, the American National Election Studies pre-election polls show that since 1964, the average Democrat has earned 86% to the average Republican's 6%. That 80-point margin is wider than the current 75-point margin Biden current earns.
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