COVID deaths still declining

[Cow Poke]

That's why I think we should focus on hospitalizations. That is a totally unambiguous datapoint and one which is impossible to artificially inflate. The hospitalization data is grim.

Impossible to artificially inflate? All you would have to do is 'code' a patient as Covid for any reason whatsoever.

[DivineOb]

We seem to have fraud there to. This apparently was the case in NYC and some other localities where any minor flu-symptom was deemed a covid-19 case. Plus, afaik there still is a bigger payment by medicare for covid-19 cases. The Dallas County data seems decent since they show no presumed covid-19 but only counts for patients who were tested, at least for those who died. I also liked some details they provided on the percentage of deaths by ethnic groups which also included the percentage of those ethnic groups in the population of the county. This showed good correlation between the proportion of deaths and the population -- there was no big difference due to ethnicity.

Let's stipulate that a handful of cases were fraudulent (really, I need more than your say so given your love for all things bat [stuff] crazy). Unless you think you can support the idea that a *significant* fraction of COVID ICU beds are incorrectly attributed it doesn't change my point.

[oxmixmudd]

Your latest graph shows the rise leveling off.

It does indeed. But it is not likely to remain that way ... very much unfortunately. Something major would have to change not to rise above 1000 deaths/day with 70000+ new cases per day.

[mikewhitney]

It does indeed. But it is not likely to remain that way ... very much unfortunately. Something major would have to change not to rise above 1000 deaths/day with 70000+ new cases per day.

Maybe something akin to realizing the false assumption that the number of cases has any real meaning?

[shunyadragon]

We have to remember that this just means that they are testing a lot more people and that the tests "indicate" a positive result. We also have places in Florida, for example, where all the test results were positive. This means that fraud can be involved. The number of "cases" is an big unscientific number with very little value.

No a lot more people died, and hospitalized with severe symptoms many may not fully recover from.

[mikewhitney]

No a lot more people died, and hospitalized with severe symptoms many may not fully recover from.

If we can get numbers on that and then compare those with the flu/influenza/respiratory cases from other years, then that can be part of the discussion too.

I'm not advocating that people get sick. I'm just trying to reveal the ways to see if this is as bad as our panic leads us to think it is. If this is less deadly than the flu (once we get out of NYC, MD,CT and DC), then it most certainly is the time to get back to the old normal. We saw with the Dallas County (or Dallas City) that the number of daily deaths stayed below ten (for the most part) whether people were quarantined, out on holiday, or wearing masks. The new normal can then just be the old normal. But if they start seeing a hundred deaths a day, we know things have gone really bad.

[shunyadragon]

If I understand what you have said -- you agree that the rate of deaths have gone down and your prediction was wrong.

The rate of fatalities is slowly dropping over al from the March - April peak. I did predict the June surge, and of course rate of fatalities will go up in the surge, but not as high as the original peak of the pandemic. Yes, after the second peak passes the rate of falities will decreas, but the peak of the second surge of infections has not begun to drop

I don't pay attention to Trump's numbers. Are you saying that 1% (or more????) of people who have a positive test of coronavirus are dying now?

I liked what I heard from one doctor's office. His nurses sent in swabs that had not been used -- they all came back positive for coronavirus. The test may be a bit too sensitive-- no?

I think it was the Kenyan leader who sent in samples taken from motor oil and from fruit. The lab results showed these had coronavirus.

The United States had the second highest death toll in the world at 908, second only to Brazil at 1,163. I reviewed sources for Russia's statistics are unreliable.

I am not concerned with case totals or testing general because they are not an accurate measure. The are only usable is be used for a rough statistical sampling in trends over time. Fatalities and documented severe cases and hospitalizations are a better more reliable measure except for China, Russia and Brazil that under report fatalities.

[shunyadragon]

If we can get numbers on that and then compare those with the flu/influenza/respiratory cases from other years, then that can be part of the discussion too.

I'm not advocating that people get sick. I'm just trying to reveal the ways to see if this is as bad as our panic leads us to think it is. If this is less deadly than the flu (once we get out of NYC, MD,CT and DC), then it most certainly is the time to get back to the old normal. We saw with the Dallas County (or Dallas City) that the number of daily deaths stayed below ten (for the most part) whether people were quarantined, out on holiday, or wearing masks. The new normal can then just be the old normal. But if they start seeing a hundred deaths a day, we know things have gone really bad.

They have the numbers, and this article makes the comparison you ask for. The graphs are very instructive. Many sources compare flus versus COVID-19 at the city, state and country level. This one compares the world data and problem with underestimated fatalities. Another source I may cite documents that the COVID-19 deaths is greater than the last ten years of flu deaths.

Source: =https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

Coronavirus: What is the true death toll of the pandemic?

By Becky Dale & Nassos Stylianou
Data journalists 18 June 2020

At least another 130,000 people worldwide have died during the coronavirus pandemic on top of 440,000 officially recorded deaths from the virus, according to BBC research.

A review of preliminary mortality data from 27 countries shows that in many places the number of overall deaths during the pandemic has been higher than normal, even when accounting for the virus.

These so-called "excess deaths", the number of deaths above the average, suggest the human impact of the pandemic far exceeds the official figures reported by governments around the world.

Some will be unrecorded Covid-19 victims, but others may be the result of the strain on healthcare systems and a variety of other factors.

Explore the animated guide to excess deaths below and scroll further to see how the pandemic has affected countries such as Brazil, Italy, South Africa and the UK.

Let's use the UK as an example. If 2020 had been an average year, the dotted line in the chart below shows how many people we would have expected to die each week. This is known as expected deaths and is calculated based on the number of deaths in previous years.

Any deaths above those expected are known as excess deaths. During the coronavirus pandemic, many countries have recorded significantly more deaths than expected this year.

Many of these excess deaths can be explained by the number of people who were officially confirmed to have had Covid-19. But in many places, that does not account for all the excess deaths.

These other excess deaths may have been, directly or indirectly, caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The total number of excess deaths shows a more complete picture of the human scale of the coronavirus outbreak.

Directly comparing the death toll between different countries is difficult. The accuracy of coronavirus data depends on how many people are tested for the virus and whether governments include deaths outside hospitals in their counts.

As the virus has spread around the world, countries have reached different stages of their outbreaks at different times. In some places, the number of excess deaths may still increase in the coming weeks and months, especially as figures are revised, while in others the number of deaths is beginning to return to normal levels.

Analysing deaths from all causes during the outbreak and comparing them with deaths in the same period from previous years can begin to provide a more accurate, if still provisional, assessment of the coronavirus pandemic's true death toll.

Read through our analysis of excess deaths in 27 locations and personal stories highlighting some of the tragic consequences of the pandemic.

CORONAVIRUS Excess deaths

United Kingdom (7 Mar - 5 Jun)
The number of deaths in the United Kingdom has been 43% higher than average, with about 64,500 more people dying than usual.


The UK's peak came during the week ending 17 April, with more than 12,800 excess deaths registered. According to ONS data, 9,495 of them mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate.

London, for a long time the UK's coronavirus hotspot, has recorded the highest number of excess deaths since the outbreak began.

But all of the UK's regions have seen excess mortality, with the West Midlands and the North West registering about 50% more deaths than usual during the pandemic.

While all parts of the UK have moved past the peak, Wales and the North West of England saw the highest rates of excess deaths in the week ending 5 June.

Chart showing the trends of excess deaths in all UK nations and regions. The peak of the outbreak in all areas was in mid-April. The decline in London, West Midlands, North West and South East has been a sharp drop, whereas elsewhere it has been more gradual.

The number of UK coronavirus deaths in the totals above includes all deaths that mention Covid-19 on the death certificate.

This will differ from the total number of deaths with a positive test result announced each day by the Department of Health and Social Care.

© Copyright Original Source

The article is easier to read with the graphs.

[firstfloor]

... like a broken clock is right twice a day.

[mikewhitney]

They have the numbers, and this article makes the comparison you ask for. The graphs are very instructive. Many sources compare flus versus COVID-19 at the city, state and country level. This one compares the world data and problem with underestimated fatalities. Another source I may cite documents that the COVID-19 deaths is greater than the last ten years of flu deaths.

The number of UK coronavirus deaths in the totals above includes all deaths that mention Covid-19 on the death certificate.

This will differ from the total number of deaths with a positive test result announced each day by the Department of Health and Social Care.

The article is easier to read with the graphs.

It is a bit harder to address the situation in America when you want to use BBC reports about the UK and other places.

If other countries have things to deal with, that is up to them.

I have showed that Maricopa County was not something to fear for the general population. If there are ways for long term care facilities to reduce transmission of disease among their residents, that is worth exploring. But this data has not been addressed well. We have to know why we should kill the economy and kill a broader population by our protective actions. The tough questions are how we will survive the cure.

[Zara]

It is a bit harder to address the situation in America when you want to use BBC reports about the UK and other places.

If other countries have things to deal with, that is up to them.

I have showed that Maricopa County was not something to fear for the general population. If there are ways for long term care facilities to reduce transmission of disease among their residents, that is worth exploring. But this data has not been addressed well. We have to know why we should kill the economy and kill a broader population by our protective actions. The tough questions are how we will survive the cure.

I'm not really sure why your disregard other countries. It's clear that Europe now has the virus under control. Europe has a larger population than the US.

The situation in the US is now out of control.

You took economic harm and failed to get the virus under control. Now lots of people will die.

Your commander and chief who is "always responsible" must surely be to blame. He admitted himself that he failed.

Did I mention yet that you failed? Not like a D but pretty much an E level fail.

[Whateverman]

It is a bit harder to address the situation in America when you want to use BBC reports about the UK and other places.

If other countries have things to deal with, that is up to them.

If those other countries are behaving in ways which suggest the opposite of what you're arguing, then they become relevant to the discussion.

[mikewhitney]

I'm not really sure why your disregard other countries. It's clear that Europe now has the virus under control. Europe has a larger population than the US.

The situation in the US is now out of control.

You took economic harm and failed to get the virus under control. Now lots of people will die.

Your commander and chief who is "always responsible" must surely be to blame. He admitted himself that he failed.

Did I mention yet that you failed? Not like a D but pretty much an E level fail.

What is the type of failure you are saying has happened?

I cannot even tell what you are saying. If we do not have pandemic levels in the States (maybe severe flu season levels * 3) and the examples are not affecting most ages, we are killing the economy. Our activity will do nothing to save other countries, since we have pretty much stopped international travel.

Maybe you can explain what the quarantines were for if they helped do nothing but kill our economy.

What has been done wrong in the States? What would you do to to protect people and the economy?

[mikewhitney]

If those other countries are behaving in ways which suggest the opposite of what you're arguing, then they become relevant to the discussion.

Maybe you are right. We should build the wall so that we are not affected by other countries.

[shunyadragon]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46378[/ATTACH]

Even though the daily cases is rising (because of more testing mostly) the death rates are still dropping.


Better look at just the daily deaths:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46379[/ATTACH]

This does not tale into account the increase in hospitalizations. Yes what you describe is the gradual grueling end of the pandemic that I predicted after the June surge. which you apparently believe it was not as severe as the figures of fatalities demonstrate. By displaying the graphs you apparently accept the reality of the pandemic. Bettertreatment advancements and the natural decline of the pandemic as in the pandemics in the past is the likely course. The fatlities resulting from the June surge is not over yet.

Pesimism and ridicule of the pandemic likely contributed to the death toll in the USA, Great Britain and Brazil. It is interesting what they have in common.