Originally posted by Mountain Man
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Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostFair enough.
Running the numbers has been horrifying. I'd really like my estimates to be wrong.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostIF they did, no. The problem is this virus is a natural mutation that made its way to humans through closer proximity to the carrier. And yes, it may have been a cultural affinity for those animals meat that allowed that to happen. But then again, the Europeans wiped out most native americans when they came here bringing syphilis which the Indians had no natural immunity to.
What you have is a government that wanted to contain it themselves and they didn't. A mistake - yes. Unexpected, no. Irresponsible - sure.
Do I think they were bad wrong to handle it like they did - yes. Typical authoritarian deal. Very bad.
Does any of that mean it's been floating around the US for months before we learned of it in China?
NO!
You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by Zara View PostOne sobering number I found recently is that the number of deaths has increased by between 13-14% per day for the past week. If that trend continues then 1 million people will have passed in one month, 36 million in two and 1.6 billion in three (although the peak will likely have passed by then) to the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/
But yeah, ten doublings is a factor of a thousand.
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Originally posted by Zara View PostOne sobering number I found recently is that the number of deaths has increased by between 13-14% per day for the past week. If that trend continues then 1 million people will have passed in one month, 36 million in two and 1.6 billion in three (although the peak will likely have passed by then) to the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostAn average of 34M get the flu each year, and an average of 34K die - hence the 0.1% mortality.
That's 2.5 million.
The ICL study examined a number of NPIs separately and in tandem and estimated that number could be cut in half.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostI'm freaking, myself, with a niece who's already in quarantine and a brother with chronic respiratory issues. I'm beyond terrified I'm going to lose him to this.
Running the numbers has been horrifying. I'd really like my estimates to be wrong.
Our Church Nursery worker's husband works with that man.
I had the unpleasant job of notifying the parents of children who had contact with her 2 weeks ago, but for whatever reason that was a very LOW ATTENDANCE nursery day - only 3 kids from 2 families.
Everybody took it well, as it's extremely unlikely the timeline allows for infection, but I let them know out of an abundance of caution.
The scary part is that one of the children is the grandchild of the man who is dying of a variant of ALS.
Again, HIGHLY unlikely we have a problem, but...The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostFWIU, for things like respirators and other supplies they were relying heavily on other member states in the EU if the need arose. When it did the other members said they couldn't spare any and left Italy to fend for themselves (one report even claimed that Germany forbade doctors from leaving the country to help).
If any of this is true I cannot see Italy staying in the EU after the dust finally settles.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostThere you go again - off with the paranoid conspiracy Thing. Again, we know its origin both genetically and geographically.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0317175442.htm"As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostThe estimates for covid-19 are 80 percent, or around 250 million infected, and an IFR around 1 percent.
That's 2.5 million.
The ICL study examined a number of NPIs separately and in tandem and estimated that number could be cut in half.
Yes. Take a few precautions. Maybe people over 70 should reduce contact with people. And certainly, if possible, reduce the consumption of bat stew.Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020, 10:19 PM.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View PostThat's a reasonable question, but it doesn't work, from what I know. Covid-19 isn't just flu-like symptoms, it's people coughing up blood on ventilators filling ICUs.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostThe UK estimate, when applied to the US, would mean 104,000 deaths (in a population of 330Million). But even the original report said no more than 20,000 in the UK. So your estimate of 2.5 million looks rather high. But if you are into super scary numbers, live by your estimate. The higher end of deaths by flu in the states is 61,000 in a year. So if we stay below this 104,000 in the US (or 20k in the UK), we are have the equivalent of a doubly-bad flu season, not millions in the US.
Yes. Take a few precautions. Maybe people over 70 should reduce contact with people. And certainly, if possible, reduce the consumption of bat stew.
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
The new figures are not as reassuring as I'd hoped.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostSerious cases, yes. But there are indications that the vast majority of cases exhibit relatively mild flu-like symptoms.
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Originally posted by Juvenal View Postv. Update from Ferguson:
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
The new figures are not as reassuring as I'd hoped.
It sounds like Ferguson does not do a very good job. I wonder if he had stated this reasoning in his initial notification of the revised numbers.
Maybe someone can tell us what information he uses to calculate his numbers. Also, it would be important to note that it is the big cities that would likely have the density of interaction to have significant problems, if the original death rate from Ferguson is correct. And we have potential medicines to treat the worst cases.
Ferguson's tweet is at:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/st...94815200124928Last edited by mikewhitney; 03-26-2020, 10:39 PM.
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