Coronavirus Outbreak...

[shunyadragon]

I don't know what you're talking about. Just a short couple of weeks ago, Italy was praised by the left as a model for how to deal with the China flu with its strictly enforced mask and social distancing mandates, and yet the China flu is on the rise. How can that be if they've done everything "right"? This has nothing to do with President Trump despite your unhealthy fixation on the man.

The government may or may not have done everything right, but is obvious congratulations are not warranted because it is documented that the peole did not follow the recommendations.

I am talking about it is not the government that controls human behavior, it can only offer regulations and recommendations for human behavior to reduce the spread of COVID-19. It is humans that fail to wear mask, social distance, and not have crowded gatherings. It is overwhelmingly documented that many people do not follow the recommendations in Italy and the USA. In fact many in the USA ridicule the recommendations and continue with church activities, social gatherings, and wide spread political campaigns activities that have documented the spread among the participants, and their homes where the COVID-19 has been tracked..

[Starlight]

Number of COVID deaths not a big deal.

They pulled the study down because it was wrong.

For some real data, there is a good article here:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Here are the two most-relevant graphs:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...t&region=World

Excess Mortality1.JPG


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...3&region=World

ExcessMortality2.JPG

[shunyadragon]

They pulled the study down because it was wrong.

For some real data, there is a good article here:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Here are the two most-relevant graphs:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...t&region=World

Excess Mortality1.JPG


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...3&region=World

ExcessMortality2.JPG

Excellent post!!!!

The measure of the severity is the number of fatalities and hospitalizations and not the number of cases nor tests.

[Stoic]

Wow. If he discouraged all these things that don't work, why are you mad at him?

Because he discouraged all those things that work, while encouraging things that don't work, like HCQ.

[Stoic]

There is no way to make a correlation. Most people getting tested are in the range of 25-44. They are not ones much susceptible to becoming sick by positive coronavirus test results. The people that have died are primarily 60 years and older ... greatly increasing in each 10 years groupings from there

I guess we can just wait a few weeks, and if the number of daily deaths due to coivd-19 goes above 3000, I'm right. Otherwise, you're right.

[Stoic]

Number of COVID deaths not a big deal.

That article had some serious flaws.

[Mountain Man]

The government may or may not have done everything right...

According to liberals they did.

[shunyadragon]

According to liberals they did.

Not a coherent response, though ultimately it is how the people comply to the guidelines and not necessarily the government.

[mikewhitney]

I guess we can just wait a few weeks, and if the number of daily deaths due to coivd-19 goes above 3000, I'm right. Otherwise, you're right.

you cannot establish correlation when the increase of tests is a different age range than the age rage of the deaths that increaseed.

[Stoic]

you cannot establish correlation when the increase of tests is a different age range than the age rage of the deaths that increaseed.

So you don't think the death rate will go up significantly in the next 3 weeks?

[Starlight]

The government [of Italy] may or may not have done everything right

According to liberals they did.

As a liberal, I wouldn't even say the liberal government in my country (New Zealand) did everything right. And my country did a whole lot better than Italy, and is regularly praised around the world for its handling of the pandemic, and various polls here found 84-92% approval of the government's handling of the pandemic.

As a result of our liberal government's relatively competent performance we had more than 150x fewer covid deaths per capita than the US; total deaths in New Zealand was lower in 2020 than previous years (mainly because the side-effect of wiping out covid from the country was to also wipe out the flu); and unemployment only went up by 1 percentage point.

There was room for improvement, and I have been very critical of my country's government for making some obvious errors, however overall they did exceptionally well compared to most of the rest of the world, especially compared to countries like the US.

[mikewhitney]

So you don't think the death rate will go up significantly in the next 3 weeks?

i have not checked whether to expect increasing deaths.

[Stoic]

i have not checked whether to expect increasing deaths.

A good way to see if you're on the right track is to make an actual prediction, and see how closely it matches reality.

[mikewhitney]

A good way to see if you're on the right track is to make an actual prediction, and see how closely it matches reality.

But you cannot take correlation of unrelated things to make a useful prediction.

[Stoic]

But you cannot take correlation of unrelated things to make a useful prediction.

They are not unrelated.