Originally posted by Sparko
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostThe biggest problem with the counting of cases is that we don't know how many of these people would have tested positive three months ago. All we have are these "big" numbers. They have no indication of how many people will become ill. I showed numbers on Dallas County where a newstory was done about the increased cases. Yet, the deaths in that county were less than flu deaths -- as counted over 90 days of the 6 month season.
Don't go by the case numbers. It is the number of deaths (when counted properly) that are important for determining whether there is a problem or not.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostIt doesnt matter mike. People get tested who have symptoms, it's the same as it was in march in that regard, except now more people are coming up positive than ever before. And that means more deaths, over 3% excepting a change in the age distribution of the positive cases. Those people and many more will need ICU care, of which there is limited supply. If we overrun the medical system, then many of those that would survive if they got hospital care will die, driving mortality up. Not to mention more patients means tired or sick doctors and nurses, adding to the existing strain on the system.
If you want to remain scared or if you want to have an excuse not to go to work, then use the scary numbers. If you want to live based on normal flu statistics, we can have our open economy again (except that unemployed people may still be dying at greater rates than the coronavirus caused).
Checkout the thread for Dallas County on Jul 22: http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...514#post753514Last edited by mikewhitney; 06-26-2020, 10:10 PM.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostNot to worry. The hospitals after 3months still are not being overcrowded. The case counts are unscientific in every fashion and thus are useless.
If you want to remain scared or if you want to have an excuse not to go to work, then use the scary numbers. If you want to live based on normal flu statistics, we can have our open economy again (except that unemployed people may still be dying at greater rates than the coronavirus caused).
Checkout the thread for Dallas County on Jul 22: http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...514#post753514My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Postyou remind me of John Martin. Oh well.
It seems you will have to create a new scientific field to justify such crazy numbers. Here is the Dallas County death chart again.
DallasCountyDeathsUptoJune26.jpg
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI have no idea what you are talking about. But I do await some defense how you expect a supernatural jump in the rate of deaths per day when places have continued (whether in quarantine or not) at steady death rates (but lower than the flu death rate). You are the one who has to explain how a sudden great increase can happen here. You have to explain why you don't use normal rate-of-death calculations of deaths per 10,000 or deaths per million people over a year. You have to explain why deaths were not high in Dallas County before people went into quarantine and soon afterward -- since lots of people would have had the virus by then. (They would not have known to stay isolated.)
It seems you will have to create a new scientific field to justify such crazy numbers. Here is the Dallas County death chart again.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]46057[/ATTACH]My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostI have explained it. You are not understanding what mortality as it is applied to disease pathology means. Mortality is the ratio of deaths to total cases, not total population. If a town has 50,000 people and 5000 get sick and 500 die, the mortality for that disease in that town is 10%, not 1%. Until you grasp that simple distinction and why 10% is the correct value you will be forever wrong in your assessments of what is happening.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostWell...maybe a bit over simplistic. There are a LOT of different measurements of death rate. What you are calling "mortality" is actually called the "death-to-case ratio." The mortality or death rate or crude death rate is actually measured against population. Then there is the cause-specific morality rate. The CDC has a good summary here. Ultimately, as long as you are talking about the same numbers, what it is called is probably not as important. But any claim that the flu has a higher mortality rate than SARS Coronavirus 2 ignores a GREAT deal of information.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostWell...maybe a bit over simplistic. There are a LOT of different measurements of death rate. What you are calling "mortality" is actually called the "death-to-case ratio." The mortality or death rate or crude death rate is actually measured against population. Then there is the cause-specific morality rate. The CDC has a good summary here. Ultimately, as long as you are talking about the same numbers, what it is called is probably not as important. But any claim that the flu has a higher mortality rate than SARS Coronavirus 2 ignores a GREAT deal of information.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostMike needs it reduced to its simplest terms carpe.
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The US is adopting a very different strategy to Europe, driven mostly by the need to keep economic activity going. To me, this is a reasonable strategy provided businesses are adopting sensible precautions against virus spread. Only in the long term, perhaps two years from now, will we know who had the better response.
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Originally posted by firstfloor View PostThe US is adopting a very different strategy to Europe, driven mostly by the need to keep economic activity going. To me, this is a reasonable strategy provided businesses are adopting sensible precautions against virus spread. Only in the long term, perhaps two years from now, will we know who had the better response.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI just want to see how he explains what you failed to figure out. Your numbers make it sound like coronavirus is killing more people (and will kill more people) than a bad (or double of bad) flu season. The problem is that the overall death rate has not been anywhere near what has been advertised in the media. Maybe carpe can explain the relation of number of coronavirus-ascribed deaths in Texas to the fear factor generated by the media.
So far, coronavirus has killed 128,243 people in the U.S. (as of this posting), and the disease was first detected in late January, so we are about five months in. Most epidemiologists are clear that they believe these numbers are an under-count, because they primarily include deaths of those confirmed to have had the virus. Most cities in the U.S. have seen a surge in EMT DOA calls that are believed to be directly due to this virus because it is the primary differentiation between this year and previous years.
And remember that these numbers are WITH a massive effort to social distance that has had significant implications for employment and our economy in general, something we do not see happen for the flu. Without those efforts, the numbers would have been significantly higher. Indeed, it looks like we're going to get a chance to see just how bad the numbers can get as the virus re-surges across most of the U.S.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI just want to see how he explains what you failed to figure out. Your numbers make it sound like coronavirus is killing more people (and will kill more people) than a bad (or double of bad) flu season. The problem is that the overall death rate has not been anywhere near what has been advertised in the media. Maybe carpe can explain the relation of number of coronavirus-ascribed deaths in Texas to the fear factor generated by the media.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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