The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."
This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.
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This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.
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