Coronavirus Outbreak...

[oxmixmudd]

So we are now sitting at 845,822 confirmed infections in the U.S., That puts us slightly ahead of the next five nations combined, which are Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK. We have a comparable population (324M combined for them to our 330M). We have 2,585 confirmed infections per million pop and they collectively have 2,574 per million pop. Unfortunately, we have 30% more new cases per day (on average) than the 5 combined, so we will continue to pull ahead of them if that doesn't change.

We have 145 deaths per million pop to their 324. The rate is about the same, and the UK is spiking, so we have done better than those five on that front so far. We have 12,651 tests per million pop to their 15,900, so we are still behind on testing.

The true gem in that set is Germany. Their infection rate is 1,810 per million, their deaths are 63/million and their testing is at 20,629 per million. They have been on top of trace/test/treat from the outset and have done one of the best jobs out there.

Unfortunately, weeks after the start of this pandemic, basic things are still not in place and governors are still asking for the same things - which are basically not forthcoming. And now we have the media over-covering what are basically fairly minor protests (with the exception of a few larger ones) ans momentum is building for what I consider to be a premature reopening. Prediction: we're going to get hit with a second wave before the first one is even over, and it will be someone else's fault, of course.

ETA: we now sit at 47,479 deaths and 46,452 of those have happened in the last four weeks. So basically, we have seen as much death due to this virus in 28 days as we do in a "worse than average" flu season of 4-6 months. If the death rate does not begin to slow, we will exceed the worst flue season within one week. The means we will have lost in 5 weeks more people than the worst 4-6 month flu season. But I'm sure we'll see more "it's no worse than the flu" posts shortly.

On the 'open too early side", the reality is everywhere you look the rise to the peak is much steeper than the drop after social distancing kicks in. So it will take longer to bring the disease down to a 'safe' level than it did to rise from that level to the peak - by a substantial amount. And the potential return to the same peak possible in a much shorter time than it takes to pull it down. And the time from "whoops we let it out again", back to lock down, wait till it goes back down again is about 3 weeks (best case) or more.

For example, Germany - as you mention one of the best, when from 1459 new cases/day to 6399 new cases/day in 11 days, but even with all their testing and tracing, it took about 24 days for it to come back down. And that is one of the better recoveries out there.

A similar rise in Italy (1492 -> 6557) took a little longer - 13 days, but they have yet to get below 2000 new cases/day a full 31 days later.

Basically, the relative amount we are pushing the rate of spread below 1 by social distancing is significantly less than the amount above 1 it attains without it.

Unfortunately the US rise in cases was sharper, and the decay (so far) shallower than either of these countries. We rose from 1700 to over 9000 in just 7 days. and 12 past our apparent peak we've only dropped 24%. Whereas that same twelve days past peak in Italy they had dropped 38% in new cases/day and Germany more than 50% (I'm eye balling this, the trend needs to be properly averaged for more precise results because its up/down a good bit, and the 'peaks' themselves are not a single peak)

It's basically like playing whack-a-mole. One short period of careless behavior and we're right back where we started. We can't do this multiple times. We have to do it right the first time.

[carpedm9587]

On the 'open too early side", the reality is everywhere you look the rise to the peak is much steeper than the drop after social distancing kicks in. So it will take longer to bring the disease down to a 'safe' level than it did to rise from that level to the peak - by a substantial amount. And the potential return to the same peak possible in a much shorter time than it takes to pull it down. And the time from "whoops we let it out again", back to lock down, wait till it goes back down again is about 3 weeks (best case) or more.

For example, Germany - as you mention one of the best, when from 1459 new cases/day to 6399 new cases/day in 11 days, but even with all their testing and tracing, it took about 24 days for it to come back down. And that is one of the better recoveries out there.

A similar rise in Italy (1492 -> 6557) took a little longer - 13 days, but they have yet to get below 2000 new cases/day a full 31 days later.

Basically, the relative amount we are pushing the rate of spread below 1 by social distancing is significantly less than the amount above 1 it attains without it.

Unfortunately the US rise in cases was sharper, and the decay (so far) shallower than either of these countries. We rose from 1700 to over 9000 in just 7 days. and 12 past our apparent peak we've only dropped 24%. Whereas that same twelve days past peak in Italy they had dropped 38% in new cases/day and Germany more than 50% (I'm eye balling this, the trend needs to be properly averaged for more precise results because its up/down a good bit, and the 'peaks' themselves are not a single peak)

It's basically like playing whack-a-mole. One short period of careless behavior and we're right back where we started. We can't do this multiple times. We have to do it right the first time.

I have to admit I'm not seeing our "peak." And I think there is a danger we will think in terms of collective numbers rather than local ones. Both have to be factored in and balanced, AFAICT.

[Roy]

I'd say 5 or 6, That is scary .. especially wrt immigration and immigrants.

Looks like '1' from here - unless there is some law I'm unaware of that requires immigrants to wear special hats.

[Roy]

So we are now sitting at 845,822 confirmed infections in the U.S., That puts us slightly ahead of the next five nations combined, which are Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK. We have a comparable population (324M combined for them to our 330M). We have 2,585 confirmed infections per million pop and they collectively have 2,574 per million pop. Unfortunately, we have 30% more new cases per day (on average) than the 5 combined, so we will continue to pull ahead of them if that doesn't change.

We have 145 deaths per million pop to their 324. The rate is about the same, and the UK is spiking, so we have done better than those five on that front so far. We have 12,651 tests per million pop to their 15,900, so we are still behind on testing.

I've getting more and more disappointed in our government's response. Not just because they're doing the wrong things now - there's little or no effort to trace infected peoples' movements - but because they didn't do the right things at the outset, and allowed the virus to get a massive head-start even after it was known what was happening in Italy.

[oxmixmudd]

Looks like '1' from here - unless there is some law I'm unaware of that requires immigrants to wear special hats.

I did not take that list as requiring that symolization had to be physical. The government itself assigning them a derogatory, symbolic name name would seem to be sufficient. I'm not sure physical symolization has been part of all genocides, certainly not on the early march toward it, so I'm not sure that is the right way to interpret that.

[Sparko]

Georgia is opening up and even Trump thinks it's too early.

[oxmixmudd]

Georgia is opening up and even Trump thinks it's too early.

Which is interesting, but not entirely surprising in that Trump is not above contradicting or abusing those trying to please him. There is a very long list of people that communicated publically what he told them only to have him pull the rug out from under them and make them look like fools.

In this case it was the right thing to do. It is too early for Georgia to open up.

[simplicio]

.......snipped

In this case it was the right thing to do. It is too early for Georgia to open up.

Could you explain why you believe this? (no not sarcasm, but a request to articulate your reasons, and your priorities)

[shunyadragon]

Could you explain why you believe this? (no not sarcasm, but a request to articulate your reasons, and your priorities)

. . . because the fatality and case rate for Georgia is not decreasing.

[Sparko]

Which is interesting, but not entirely surprising in that Trump is not above contradicting or abusing those trying to please him. There is a very long list of people that communicated publically what he told them only to have him pull the rug out from under them and make them look like fools.

In this case it was the right thing to do. It is too early for Georgia to open up.

So even when Trump is on what you think is the right side of things, you still find a way to twist it into him "contradicting himself" and "abusing others," and you still refuse to admit you are obsessed with Trump? Pull the other one!

[shunyadragon]

The quality of the health of older population may be a factor in the fatality rates. As far as quality of health issues such as obesity the USA is near the bottom.

Source: sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-obesity-risk-factor?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=latest-newsletter-v2&utm_source=Latest_Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest_Headlines

COVID-19 is hitting some patients with obesity particularly hard

© Copyright Original Source

[oxmixmudd]

Could you explain why you believe this? (no not sarcasm, but a request to articulate your reasons, and your priorities)

It was the right thing to say it is too early for Georgia to open right now. Does that need an explanation? Perhaps you though I meant something else?

[oxmixmudd]

So even when Trump is on what you think is the right side of things, you still find a way to twist it into him "contradicting himself" and "abusing others," and you still refuse to admit you are obsessed with Trump? Pull the other one!

I'm not twisting anything Sparko - merely speaking the truth. What I mentioned in that post is just the simple reality that he:

1) has led governors to believe he wants them to open as soon as possible
2) has affirmed Georgia's governor's plans in calls to him
3) has reversed that affirmation publicly
4) has a history of pulling the rug out from under people responsible for communicating his policies.

These are all just facts Sparko. Facts that are of critical bearing on what he has done. Facts that if hidden from view would effectively be lying in support of him. So to communicate the truth about his rebuke, they must be reported along with that statement. He led this governor to believe he supported his actions, then pulled the rug out from under him. So even though that was a nasty thing to do, the nasty part was in leading the governor to think he (Trump) would support him (the governor), not (Trump) saying it was too early for Georgia to open.

[oxmixmudd]

With over 100,000 recovered of 150,000 cases and an fairly agressive testing program, Germany's worst case 5%/naive 3.3% mortality is sobering. For that number to drop to 1% or less like so many wish to promote, the number of asymptomatic cases not caught by Germany's wide spread testing would have to be 80%, only 1 in 5 actually developing symptoms that would prompt them to get testing. to reach .5% (still 5x that of the flu) even based on the naive mortality only 1 in 6. IOW, to be even close to some sort of 'safe' mortality, 5 out of every 6 people catching the virus would need to be a unaware of its presence in their bodies.

Given Iceland's full testing effort yielded 1 out of every 2 being asymptomatic, the idea the mortality of this virus is grossly overstated stretches credulity.

Mexico's do nothing policy is having the expected result. It is climbing that ladder of nations in terms of total cases. It will pass S. Korea today. It's naive mortality is 9%

Sweden OTOH seems to be holding flat their growth at ~600 new cases per day, and deaths/day may be peaking. So their expectation that they are a nation of responsible people who will do what is needed w/o explicit laws or declarations may well have been a reasonable call - for them.

[shunyadragon]

The USA has dominated the world in new COVID19 cases since aout March 21. See graph: Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases on: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Leadership and priorities, leaderships and priorities, and ah . . . leadership and priorities.