Something truly odd is happening. I track RealClearPolitics because I find polling aggregators to be less biased. Their tracking of Trump's job approval shows the expected "rally-around-the-president" bump in late March, and then shows that this bump is eroding in an interesting way: Trump's approval is dropping faster than his disapproval is rising. When you look at the polls that are aggregated, if you know the general history of them, one of them jumps right out: Rasmussen Reports. Since Trump took office, this poll has consistently been about 4-8 points to the right of the mean. Trump has called them out many times because they have actually shown him at dead even (disapprove-approve), or even a point or two ahead, several times. They have shown this even though the aggregate has never been in the positive since the first two days of Trump taking office. Now, all of a sudden, they are a full 8 points to the LEFT of the mean, and the gap has been widening over the past couple weeks.
I have long suspected that Rasmussen was skewed because their poll somehow over-represented the GOP and/or conservatives. If that suspicion is correct, it suggests that Trump's approval within his base is showing a few cracks. While I consider that unlikely, it does fit with what we are seeing here: a strong emphasis on the economy and dismay at the scale of the coronavirus response and its impact on that economy. Trump is clearly currently in "this is bad and we have to respond" mode, and it may well be that some of his base is not happy about it. If that is true, and history repeats, this background noise will continue to rise, Trump will see he is risking his base, and his focus will shift more forcefully to "reopening the economy." If he does that and the feared "second wave" actually manifests, Trump will be between a rock and a hard place. Return to mitigation and risk his base, or respond to the second wave and risk the moderates currently supporting him.
This is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. Black swan indeed...
I have long suspected that Rasmussen was skewed because their poll somehow over-represented the GOP and/or conservatives. If that suspicion is correct, it suggests that Trump's approval within his base is showing a few cracks. While I consider that unlikely, it does fit with what we are seeing here: a strong emphasis on the economy and dismay at the scale of the coronavirus response and its impact on that economy. Trump is clearly currently in "this is bad and we have to respond" mode, and it may well be that some of his base is not happy about it. If that is true, and history repeats, this background noise will continue to rise, Trump will see he is risking his base, and his focus will shift more forcefully to "reopening the economy." If he does that and the feared "second wave" actually manifests, Trump will be between a rock and a hard place. Return to mitigation and risk his base, or respond to the second wave and risk the moderates currently supporting him.
This is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. Black swan indeed...
Comment