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Coronavirus Outbreak...
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Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostSo close that Trump immediately banned him from his properties when an underage staffer at Mar-a-Largo complained about his accosting her. So close that Trump was the only one of Epstein's high-profile associates to fully cooperate with the Florida investigation, for which the lawyer for Epstein's victims expressed his gratitude.
Darn those inconvenient facts and how they get in the way of your vitriolic nonsense [ATTACH=CONFIG]44052[/ATTACH]
Darn those inconvenient facts!
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostIt's an experimental and unproven treatment at the moment, so Fauci's caution is reasonable. It should be rolled out slowly on a small scale and the patients carefully monitored. Can you imagine if it was used to treat thousands only to later discover that there are undesirable long-term side effects?
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As we soar to almost 1.4 million cases and creep up on 100,000 fatalities worldwide, the world growth curve is beginning to show a slight turn toward the horizontal, perhaps a result of so many countries under lock-down.
world log cases and deaths 04072020.PNG
There are countries (like Mexico) still playing though. Mexico doesn't have too awful many cases yet, but its growth curve in cases and deaths is currently pure exponential with a doubling time of about a week. Not as step as ours has become, but not by any means under control. Sweden also is not doing social distancing and shows a somewhat unsteady logarithmic curve with a current doubling also around a week or so.
Mexico log cases 04072020.jpg
Sweeden log cases 04072020.jpg
The US too is seeing a rounding of the curve. Doubling time is now down to about 7 days vs 4 days just a week ago.
US log cases 04072020.jpg
deaths while lagging is also rounding a bit, though still doubling every 5 days (down from 3 last week)
Us log deaths 04072020.jpg
Keep in mind that at 370,000 cases, we'll see a million cases during the week after easter unless the rounding of the curve continues. And keep in mind that constant increases (instead of growing increases) will still round a logarithmic curve. We are adding 30,000 cases per day. We are adding 1200 or so deaths from this virus very day. That is 1200 bodies are being carried out of ICU's across this country just due to this virus every single day, more than twice the number that die from lung cancer. And remember, those lung cancer patients are still there. But this disease is not killing as many per day as all cancers combined. That number is around 1700 per day. But almost. Maybe we can turn this before the number that die from coronavirus exceeds cancer deaths per day.
(remember, the problem is a lack of excess capacity overwhelming hospitals. If that happens, these death rates could double or worse. Countries where that happens see much higher mortality)
I'm also beginning to see more credible information that what covid does isn't exactly a pnemonia, and that ventilator treatment may or may not be what wpuld theoretically be best. Although I'm not sure what other means exists for supplying oxygen to a body where the lungs are not working well.
And along with that I'm seeing yet more ignorant people thinking that might mean something sinister, or devious, as if scientists and doctors dealing with a completely new disease and learning something new is actually evidence they've bee purposefully deceiving everyone, or that since one element of treatment might need improvement, it means the everything we've been told about it is wrong and evidence of evil scheming by 'the liberals' or 'the godless' or whatever categorical grouping you drape on populations of people is also placed in league with the Devil.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostAs we soar to almost 1.4 million cases and creep up on 100,000 fatalities worldwide, the world growth curve is beginning to show a slight turn toward the horizontal, perhaps a result of so many countries under lock-down.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44066[/ATTACH]
There are countries (like Mexico) still playing though. Mexico doesn't have too awful many cases yet, but its growth curve in cases and deaths is currently pure exponential with a doubling time of about a week. Not as step as ours has become, but not by any means under control. Sweden also is not doing social distancing and shows a somewhat unsteady logarithmic curve with a current doubling also around a week or so.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44068[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44067[/ATTACH]
The US too is seeing a rounding of the curve. Doubling time is now down to about 7 days vs 4 days just a week ago.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44069[/ATTACH]
deaths while lagging is also rounding a bit, though still doubling every 5 days (down from 3 last week)
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44070[/ATTACH]
Keep in mind that at 370,000 cases, we'll see a million cases during the week after easter unless the rounding of the curve continues. And keep in mind that constant increases (instead of growing increases) will still round a logarithmic curve. We are adding 30,000 cases per day. We are adding 1200 or so deaths from this virus very day. That is 1200 bodies are being carried out of ICU's across this country just due to this virus every single day, more than twice the number that die from lung cancer. And remember, those lung cancer patients are still there. But this disease is not killing as many per day as all cancers combined. That number is around 1700 per day. But almost. Maybe we can turn this before the number that die from coronavirus exceeds cancer deaths per day.
(remember, the problem is a lack of excess capacity overwhelming hospitals. If that happens, these death rates could double or worse. Countries where that happens see much higher mortality)
I'm also beginning to see more credible information that what covid does isn't exactly a pnemonia, and that ventilator treatment may or may not be what wpuld theoretically be best. Although I'm not sure what other means exists for supplying oxygen to a body where the lungs are not working well.
And along with that I'm seeing yet more ignorant people thinking that might mean something sinister, or devious, as if scientists and doctors dealing with a completely new disease and learning something new is actually evidence they've bee purposefully deceiving everyone, or that since one element of treatment might need improvement, it means the everything we've been told about it is wrong and evidence of evil scheming by 'the liberals' or 'the godless' or whatever categorical grouping you drape on populations of people is also placed in league with the Devil.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostWhat do you mean "picked him?" Dr. Fauci has been director of the NIAID since 1984, so he moved into that position during the Reagan administration. Do you mean on the task force? Seems a bit odd to NOT have the director of the NIAID on the task force, especially given his history and obvious capabilities. And I submit that politics is not the primary metric, IMO, for responding to a medical crisis.
But many on the right are doing to Mr. Fauci what they have done to so many others: attack a previously well-respected and honorable person because they had the audacity to contradict or speak out against Mr. Trump. Kelly. Mattison. Vindmann. Mueller. The list goes on. This is one of the many dynamics that convinces me what was once a political party (Republican) and political leaning (conservative) has now become a cult following.
Originally posted by NorrinRadd View PostI hope he stays, but takes a diminished role. I'd like to see Bad Orange Man add a few more experts with views contrary to Fauci's, and elevate them to at least equal to Fauci and Birx in rank.
Fauci is a legitimate expert and his input can be valuable. But his focus is too narrow (infectious disease), and his approach is too inclined toward researcher as opposed to clinician. He needs to be balanced more by experts who are interested in actually treating the disease NOW, and by experts on the mental and physical health effects of quarantine, unemployment, etc.
He has been ignorantly dismissive of both HCQ therapy (seeming to conflate "not conclusively proven" with "no evidence at all") and the dangers of shutdown and lockdown ("inconvenient").
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Originally posted by seanD View PostWe're in an era of political tribalism. That's just the way it is, good or bad notwithstanding. If it's interpreted as a cult, so be it. Personally, I oppose the political tribe (and that includes the intelligence community and many others that were considered "well-respected" and "honorable") that have been opposing Trump for three years far more than I support the orange man himself, political buffoon at times and extreme narcissist that he is. In light of what we've seen for three years, anyone advising Trump on something of this magnitude should be looked upon with extreme caution, professional qualifications aside. Don't like it? Tough.
Agreed. Dissenting opinion from those equally qualified is the way to go.
But a great deal of what you display here and in other posts is Paranoia targeting the educated and the knowledgeable, the experienced career individuals that have dedicated their lives to the well-being of this country and our people. The fear of knowledge and science that undermines nearly every aspect of conservatism in this country, and unfortunately that undermines evangelical Christendom as well.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-07-2020, 11:01 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by seanD View PostWe're in an era of political tribalism. That's just the way it is, good or bad notwithstanding. If it's interpreted as a cult, so be it. Personally, I oppose the political tribe (and that includes the intelligence community and many others that were considered "well-respected" and "honorable") that have been opposing Trump for three years far more than I support the orange man himself, political buffoon at times and extreme narcissist that he is. In light of what we've seen for three years, anyone advising Trump on something of this magnitude should be looked upon with extreme caution, professional qualifications aside.
Originally posted by seanD View PostDon't like it? Tough.
Originally posted by seanD View PostAgreed. Dissenting opinion from those equally qualified is the way to go.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostI've been watching the "active cases" number. Worldwide we just crossed the million mark (1,005,989) which is 72.91% of all known cases. In the U.S., 345,841 of the 377,499 known cases (91.61%) are still active. The count for both continues to climb fairly aggressively. The hump is not yet here. And while there is definitely going to be a national hump, it will likely be at different times in different parts of the country - which will add another complication. So too will the waning days of the pandemic. As the daily count begins to drop, pressure will mount to end social distancing and re-open businesses so as to "save the economy." Will that trigger a second wave?My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostAlthough you are correct in that multiple differing opinions from qualified experts is critical, the key word is experts (not fox news show populist ideologues)
But a great deal of what you display here and in other posts is Paranoia targeting the educated and the knowledgeable, the experienced career individuals that have dedicated their lives to the well-being of this country and our people. The fear of knowledge and science that undermines nearly every aspect of conservatism in this country, and unfortunately that undermines evangelical Christendom as well.
Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostTribalism? Absolutely. However, I don't buy into the "deep state" narrative. The media has not been doing anything to Mr. Trump that hasn't been done to every president before him: reporting on what he does and challenging him when he says things that are not true. It's their job. The fact that he says things that are not true so often is not the doing of the media - it is the character of the (vile) man holding the office. While I am sure there a some rotten apples in the bunch, the majority of civil servants, in my experience and as far as I can tell, are good people just doing their jobs. This spirit of "tear down the person in the opposite tribe at any cost" is one I find repugnant.
Not sure what value this added. What I think/like is not of great import pretty much anywhere - except maybe in my kitchen!
If they are basing their opinion on facts/data, I agree.
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Originally posted by seanD View PostIt was "paranoia" accusations from your political side when we questioned the Russia conspiracy narrative, and every other wild narrative following that which turned out to be a farce. So, par for the course.
If by "deep state" you mean extreme partisan hacks who abused their sitting power to orchestrate a failed impeachment circus to the world, then you'd be wrong, but of course you'd disagree on the basis of political tribalism. Par for the course.
And the only reason the conviction failed was because the Senate held a show-trial and most Senators on both sides, including the Majority and Minority leaders, publicly acknowledged before the trial began that their minds were already made up. They held a trial in which witnesses and documents (beyond what was passed from the House) would not be permitted, and the House was never able to get the first-hand accounts and needed documents because the Executive blocked them at every turn. The partisan nature of the Senate trial was obvious to pretty much everyone. The only Senators on either side to show an iota of bi-partisanship were Romney, and (to some degree) Collins.
Don't get me wrong - I am glad he was not convicted. His conviction would have removed him from office and I do not think that is a good thing in this current climate. The results could have been ugly. But, based on my own digging and the information presented, there is no doubt in my mind that the current holder of the highest executive office in the land is one of the most corrupt individuals ever to hold that office.Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-07-2020, 11:49 AM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostSo first, the impeachment didn't fail. Trump was actually impeached. What did not happen was conviction on the articles presented to the Senate and removal from office (for which I am grateful).
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Originally posted by carpedmprig View PostAnd the only reason the conviction failed was because...Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post...the House lacked sufficient evidence to convince 2/3rds of the Senate that Trump was guilty. For that matter, the Democrats couldn't even present a compelling enough case to convince a simple majority that the trial should continue beyond opening arguments.
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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