Originally posted by little_monkey
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Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-03-2020, 09:59 PM.
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Originally posted by Charles View PostAnything to support your claim? And remember you did speak in general terms about "the media" not some particular media source."As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
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Originally posted by little_monkey View PostMy revised numbers (10:30 pm EDT) - 32,284 new cases and 1,321 new deaths. We're still climbing. The numbers are from WORLDOMETER - they give the numbers for every country on the planet. Also states by states, with graphics.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThe numbers will continue to climb up and down for a while. The peak will be between now and very early May and then taper off in a normal natural virus bell curve as previously predicted. April be a bad month. The positive side if there is one, is in natural virus bell curves the fatality rate and severity of the new cases decrease with time.
The epidemic has only hit a few major cities at the present, hospital capacity is not stressed for most of the country. Across New York State, the first cases are only now hitting the nursing homes in most of the state (they are admitted over the protests of administrators hoping to delay the inevitable). When peaks are hit in one place, the cases will be ramping up in others.
We had one governor encouraging citizens to eat at Bob Evans, boasting how crowded it was. Then he closed things down. In spite of the evidence, public officials are hesitant to recognize the potential severity of this. We even have some here questioning if it is some evil media misinformation campaign. A consensus has not been had among 50 governors, which does suggest difficulty among 300 million to proceed with caution through this.
Pandemic skeptics will play a role in allowing the hoped for tapering off.
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Originally posted by simplicio View PostWill the cases taper off? I do doubt that there will a classic bell, the bell curve implies that it has run its course. We don't have a single epidemic, but a series of outbreaks at differing time and differing severity with differing local responses. If NYC experiences a tapering off, it has to deal with new cases brought in from other areas, other states. What we have is a rolling epidemic, rolling across the countryside.
The epidemic has only hit a few major cities at the present, hospital capacity is not stressed for most of the country. Across New York State, the first cases are only now hitting the nursing homes in most of the state (they are admitted over the protests of administrators hoping to delay the inevitable). When peaks are hit in one place, the cases will be ramping up in others.
We had one governor encouraging citizens to eat at Bob Evans, boasting how crowded it was. Then he closed things down. In spite of the evidence, public officials are hesitant to recognize the potential severity of this. We even have some here questioning if it is some evil media misinformation campaign. A consensus has not been had among 50 governors, which does suggest difficulty among 300 million to proceed with caution through this.
Pandemic skeptics will play a role in allowing the hoped for tapering off.
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Originally posted by simplicio View PostWill the cases taper off? I do doubt that there will a classic bell, the bell curve implies that it has run its course. We don't have a single epidemic, but a series of outbreaks at differing time and differing severity with differing local responses. If NYC experiences a tapering off, it has to deal with new cases brought in from other areas, other states. What we have is a rolling epidemic, rolling across the countryside.
The epidemic has only hit a few major cities at the present, hospital capacity is not stressed for most of the country. Across New York State, the first cases are only now hitting the nursing homes in most of the state (they are admitted over the protests of administrators hoping to delay the inevitable). When peaks are hit in one place, the cases will be ramping up in others.
We had one governor encouraging citizens to eat at Bob Evans, boasting how crowded it was. Then he closed things down. In spite of the evidence, public officials are hesitant to recognize the potential severity of this. We even have some here questioning if it is some evil media misinformation campaign. A consensus has not been had among 50 governors, which does suggest difficulty among 300 million to proceed with caution through this.
Pandemic skeptics will play a role in allowing the hoped for tapering off.
Of course I could be wrong, but likely only to a degree. It is better than the bogus erratic predictions of the White House and Fauci, and fits the current evidence of the trends in the data, and the history of the behavior of the related viruses..Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-04-2020, 07:13 AM.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostThere is about 50% valid in that excuse and about 50% invalid. One could believe it was a distraction and could have hampered him to a certain extent.
One can not believe that it is THE reason for the poor response - we have ample text spoken by trump at various briefings over that period to make clear he considered it of little or no consequence. He was buying into conspiracy theories about it, and he was not listening to experts about much of anything, including this.
And then of course there is all of February and the first part of March where he was still down playing it and dragging his feet.
This is just excuse making. We have what he said about this on record. For those that are willing to let historical records of what he did guide their thinking about this, it is clear Donald Trump being classic Donald Trump is the reason Donald Trump was slow to respond to this.
Hindsight is 20/20 and you are just another armchair quarterback.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostThe point, Sparko - is that a pandemic was anticipated. Whether it was a super-flu or a coronavirus is largely inconsequential.
And I've heard the "it was the impeachment" defense over and over again. Trump's acquittal was February 5. He (and others) were all downplaying the situation through January, which is understandable given the circumstances. Even most of February can be largely forgiven for lack of foresight - it was a condition shared by many. By the 24th of February we had over 50 cases scattered around the nation, community spread beginning to happen, and alarms going off left and right. By then Trump had had at least a month of warnings from his intelligence groups that China was lying about the situation. The WHO had already declared an international emergency. His continued dismissal in the following three weeks, all the way through March 16th, was the critical window in which we lost time that need not have been lost.
Could we have shut down the pandemic if we shut down all borders 100% upon immediate detection of the first case? Maybe. But I doubt anyone reasonably suggests that such a thing should have been done. But by the time there were close to 4,000 cases all around the U.S., for Trump to STILL be saying "nothing to fear here," closing borders almost by happenstance, and NOT implementing aggressive action to prepare for the coming pandemic is a reflection on his chaotic and unfocused administration, his poor leadership skills, and his me-centered attitude towards everything.
Maybe you guys should have let him put up the fence along the border in the first place? Maybe the dems shouldn't have complained when he shut down flights from China and other places.
Maybe Trump should have panicked and told us that the world was going to end, initiated Martial Law and placed everyone under house arrest?
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Originally posted by little_monkey View PostMy revised numbers (10:30 pm EDT) - 32,284 new cases and 1,321 new deaths. We're still climbing. The numbers are from WORLDOMETER - they give the numbers for every country on the planet. Also states by states, with graphics.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostPlease, mister Infectious Disease Expert, tell me how they should have handled it differently?
Maybe you guys should have let him put up the fence along the border in the first place? Maybe the dems shouldn't have complained when he shut down flights from China and other places.
Maybe Trump should have panicked and told us that the world was going to end, initiated Martial Law and placed everyone under house arrest?
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostJust to be clear, I don't think Trump was slow in responding, or that he is doing a bad job. I was just pointing out to carp that if he thinks so, then he should be blaming the democrats for distracting Trump and the whole country with the Impeachment fiasco instead of watching what was going on in China.
Hindsight is 20/20 and you are just another armchair quarterback.
Period of inexcusable delay and inactivity (IMO) begins after 2/24/20 (starting almost 3 weeks later when community spread was first manifested and continuing to the present). Before then, even the experts were all over the place, so to expect Trump not to be is unrealistic.
The two are unrelated. You are ignoring the arguments I am actually making to argue against ones I am not. You are doing it in the usual way: assuming my arguments are the same as "all those liberals" or "all those democrats." They are not, and they actually are seldom aligned with "all those liberals" and "all those democrats."
If folks here responded to what I actually said and argued, instead of applying the "liberal/Democrat" label and arguing against what others are saying, we actually might make progress. Instead I spend post after post noting that the responses are not addressing my arguments. I think I'm going to stop making those responses. It's clearly a waste of time.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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