Originally posted by Cow Poke
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�Global Temperature� � Why Should We Trust A Statistic That Might Not Even Exist?
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I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostSo... only once a decade or so?Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostExcept it's not the same measurement. There are far fewer temperature stations now than in years past, many of those stations are no longer optimally placed due to urban expansion, huge swaths of the earth have no temperature stations (notably many of the earth's coldest regions), and the data, including the historic record, has been "adjusted" so many times that it is now thoroughly corrupted and untrustworthy.
JimMy brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by One Bad Pig View PostSame here. That gets us the "climate denier" label, however.
JimMy brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostIt is the same measurement MM in all the ways that matter. No it is not a measurement made from exactly the same set of stations for the last 100 years, but to think that invalidates the results is ignorance.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostNo it doesn't, not from me anyway. But if you post nutcases pseudo-science, I will point out what what you posted is nutcase pseudo-science.
JimVeritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
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I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostWhat invalidates the results is the amount of "massaging" that has to be done to paper over the numerous coverage gaps, and how the historic record has been irreparably corrupted by arbitrary "adjustments" designed to fit the hypothesis rather than adjusting the hypothesis to fit the data.
So what more can be said. You don't want to learn, and you think you already know - so what more is there to say, except that you are wrong.
JimMy brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post"He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
My Personal Blog
My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)
Quill Sword
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Originally posted by firstfloor View PostThe sign of a misspent youth; too much Bible study and not enough education.
The article is a straightforward straw man. The interesting thing about average temperatures over any given area is how it changes over time.
Highest Recorded Temperature: 134.1 F (56.7 C)
Lowest Recorded Temperature: -128.6 F (-89 C)
So, the mean is calculated by adding up all the temps taken in a given period in that range and dividing by the number of data points. It's ridiculously skewed because there are a LOT of places we don't take surface temps for (or don't take them regularly) and a lot we CAN'T take surface temps for (war zones are not conducive to long careers if you are dumb enough to try to build a station in them). The range is wide - especially considering how often we're told that a change in the average of only a 1.5 degree C will signal the END OF THE WORLD!
But, of course, it's not a pure average - can't be, it would oscillate too much from reading to reading (averages skew easily) - it has to be weighted.
For a complex system we DON'T fully understand, we're weighting the average temperature. Yeah - no. Amateur night at the OK Corral...
To be honest, I don't think a median would fix that mess - I don't see how either one is meaningful. It's like taking the interior temperature of your car with AC on max, the temperature of the trunk and the running engine temp and averaging them. Easy to do - but what, exactly, does it tell you about the real car? Well, let's see:
Interior: 68 F (MAX AC for the win!)
Trunk: 105 F (sunny day in Alabama!)
Engine: 200 F (average range for most engines is 195 F to 220 F - took the low end)
68 + 105 + 200 = 124.3333333333
The car is an oven!
Okay, so what does that actually tell us? Not a danged thing. We're reducing a complex machine that has varying parameters to a single measure that has no bearing on car comfort, performance or safety - although the three data points we took bear on those matters individually (yeah, you don't want a trunk that gets as hot as the engine - gasoline vapor can ignite at high temps all by its lonesome. When it does that in the engine, we call it a backfire which is a relatively minor problem. When it does that in the trunk we call that a big explosion...)
But an average of the data points in a FAR MORE COMPLEX SYSTEM is supposed to be meaningful? Yeah, right...Last edited by Teallaura; 08-26-2019, 02:04 PM."He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
My Personal Blog
My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)
Quill Sword
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Originally posted by Teallaura View PostIt's an AVERAGE - the mean is next to useless whenever the distribution is wide - as it is with the planet.
Highest Recorded Temperature: 134.1 F (56.7 C)
Lowest Recorded Temperature: -128.6 F (-89 C)
So, the mean is calculated by adding up all the temps taken in a given period in that range and dividing by the number of data points. It's ridiculously skewed because there are a LOT of places we don't take surface temps for (or don't take them regularly) and a lot we CAN'T take surface temps for (war zones are not conducive to long careers if you are dumb enough to try to build a station in them). The range is wide - especially considering how often we're told that a change in the average of only a 1.5 degree C will signal the END OF THE WORLD!
But, of course, it's not a pure average - can't be, it would oscillate too much from reading to reading (averages skew easily) - it has to be weighted.
For a complex system we DON'T fully understand, we're weighting the average temperature. Yeah - no. Amateur night at the OK Corral...
To be honest, I don't think a median would fix that mess - I don't see how either one is meaningful. It's like taking the interior temperature of your car with AC on max, the temperature of the trunk and the running engine temp and averaging them. Easy to do - but what, exactly, does it tell you about the real car? Well, let's see:
Interior: 68 F (MAX AC for the win!)
Trunk: 105 F (sunny day in Alabama!)
Engine: 200 F (average range for most engines is 195 F to 220 F - took the low end)
68 + 105 + 200 = 124.3333333333
The car is an oven!
Okay, so what does that actually tell us? Not a danged thing. We're reducing a complex machine that has varying parameters to a single measure that has no bearing on car comfort, performance or safety - although the three data points we took bear on those matters individually (yeah, you don't want a trunk that gets as hot as the engine - gasoline vapor can ignite at high temps all by its lonesome. When it does that in the engine, we call it a backfire which is a relatively minor problem. When it does that in the trunk we call that a big explosion...)
But an average of the data points in a FAR MORE COMPLEX SYSTEM is supposed to be meaningful? Yeah, right...
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It's actually not true - you only need a skew - which is pretty easy to get when you average.
The question is 'does 'average global temperature' actually mean anything in the real world? Averages are seductive because they are so easy to do - but they are easily skewed and frequently run into external validity problems."He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
My Personal Blog
My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)
Quill Sword
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostThat isn't what is happening MM. I realize you don't have the background to be able to understand what is actually being done so you just have to take the word of those you trust, but you've basically hitched your train to the wrong wagon. OTOH, any time I've tried (or others) to offer any sort of basic explanation, you just venture off into rank sarcasm and ignore everything that is said. So we have to add in the fact this is willful ignorance on your part.
So what more can be said. You don't want to learn, and you think you already know - so what more is there to say, except that you are wrong.
JimSome may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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