Two-Year Global Cooling Event?

[seer]

Interesting

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.

The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998. If someone is tempted to argue that the reason for recent record cooling periods is that global temperatures are getting more volatile, it's not true. The volatility of monthly global average temperatures since 2000 is only two-thirds what it was from 1880 to 1999.

None of this argues against global warming. The 1950s was the last decade cooler than the previous decade, the next five decades were all warmer on average than the decade before. Two year cooling cycles, even if they set records, are statistical noise compared to the long-term trend. Moreover, the case for global warming does not rely primarily on observed warming; it has models, historical studies and other science behind it. .

Annual atmospheric CO2 levels have gone up in pretty much a straight line since 1960, if temperatures did the same thing, the link to CO2 would be direct and obvious. In fact, it is real but complex, and those complexities are important for analyzing policy choices.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...ce_103243.html

[Cow Poke]

Get ready for the haters to swoop in and tell you what an ignoramus you are.

[Starlight]

Where do you dredge up this garbage from?

Would it surprise you to learn the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred?

It would.

Let's look at the graph from the site that he links to:



Looks like 2018 has been the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record.

The latest month available is Oct 2018, not Feb 2018. (Oh, I see, the article is 6 months old)

And the average global temperature in the year ending Feb 2018 is only 0.1 degree lower than the average temperature in the year starting Feb 2016. So no, there was no 2 year global cooling event.

You only get to the number he cites if you super-duper cherry pick and you select out the specific month of Feb 2016 which was a particularly hot month in an El Nino year, and compare that month and that month alone (not the year it was part of), with the specific month of Feb 2018 which was hot by historical standards but was in a La Nina year.

For those unfamiliar, the El Nino/La Nina cycle is a short term atmospheric and sea current fluctuation which causes temperatures to go up slightly for about a year before dropping slightly for about a year. The last El Nino period was Nov 2015-Apr 2016, where, as can be seen on the large image above, the average temperatures were drastically higher than anything previously recorded. Following that has come a cooler La Nina period, but even with the "cooler" La Nina the average temperatures are still nigh on the highest ever recorded

Observing that a month at the height of a El Nino is hotter than the same month in a following La Nina year, is not a new observation, and is about 100 years old, and is why articles such as the linked article are garbage and the writer is ignorant or deceptive. Climate scientists know all about the short-term El Nino cycle and know to factor that in to their estimations about how fast the globe is warming long-term.

My point is that statistical cooling outliers garner no media attention.

It's at this point I tend to assume that the author has no science qualifications whatsoever, because any scientist would know statistical outliers have zero interest when it comes to establishing the main trends... I just checked, he doesn't seem to have any science background, he works in a hedge fund and writes books about Wall St.

The middle part seems to be a lie.

As for the rest, why is the well-known El Nino/La Nina cycle occurring a story? It's like night following day, it's a well known short term temperature variation. If the media reports a record hot day, is he saying they should then report that during the night that followed it the temperature dropped? Or can the media assume the public knows that the temperature drops at night? This is why I get sick of reading such garbage here.

Annual atmospheric CO2 levels have gone up in pretty much a straight line since 1960, if temperatures did the same thing, the link to CO2 would be direct and obvious.

Since the 60s the global average temperatures have indeed done a pretty good approximation of a straight line according to the data he referred us to:



So by his own criteria, I guess he acknowledges the obvious then, that climate change is being heavily caused by CO2 levels. It fluctuates slightly around a straight line because there are El Nino/La Nina cycles and other short term fluctuation effects. But long term, it definitely looks pretty straight-line-ish.

In sum I think the writer of the OP article is either a complete moron or deliberately lying as much as he possibly can to deceive people, possibly both, you should have posted it in the screwball thread.

[shunyadragon]

Get ready for the haters to swoop in and tell you what an ignoramus you are.

You did it first, nothing to add. Good swoop!

Starlight's post brings things back in focus.

[Starlight]

Get ready for the haters to swoop in and tell you what an ignoramus you are.

If you like, I can write you a garbage essay about how Jesus is a mythic figure that comes from the reuse of the Osiris dying and rising motif, as totally proven by a few mis-cited biblical passages and a few completely made up passages, and tell you about how the entire early church itself was fictional. And then Tass and Roy and Jim can sit round saying "oh, that sounds totally reasonable".

And then you can face-palm almost as hard as I do when I read the garbage in Seer's OP. It's at that kind of level.

[Cow Poke]

You did it first, nothing to add. Good swoop!

Starlight's post brings things back in focus.

Nice try, Shuny - I only predicted what would happen.

[Cow Poke]

If you like, I can write you a garbage essay about how Jesus is a mythic figure that comes from the reuse of the Osiris dying and rising motif, as totally proven by a few mis-cited biblical passages and a few completely made up passages, and tell you about how the entire early church itself was fictional. And then Tass and Roy and Jim can sit round saying "oh, that sounds totally reasonable".

And then you can face-palm almost as hard as I do when I read the garbage in Seer's OP. It's at that kind of level.

If you were bringing this article to me - this "garbage essay" - I wouldn't open and close with insults. Unless, of course, I knew you had evil intent. I would take the time to show you the error of your ways.

Here is your lead-in....

Where do you dredge up this garbage from?

And here is your close....

In sum I think the writer of the OP article is either a complete moron or deliberately lying as much as he possibly can to deceive people, possibly both, you should have posted it in the screwball thread.

You have fulfilled my prophecy:

Get ready for the haters to swoop in and tell you what an ignoramus you are.

[Mountain Man]

Would it surprise you to learn the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred?

Doesn't surprise me in the slightest because I actually stay informed about this sort of thing.

[Mountain Man]

Since the 60s the global average temperatures have indeed done a pretty good approximation of a straight line according to the data he referred us to:

That's one of those infamous "adjusted data" graphs. NASA and other organizations have so corrupted the historical temperature record that anything they publish should be immediately dismissed by anybody who has a love for truth.

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/...rature-record/

[Mountain Man]

This quote is apropos: "Each adjustment means they got it wrong last time. The more adjustments, the greater the track record of being wrong, and there is no reason to believe they are getting closer to being right. So why believe them at all?"

[Starlight]

If you were bringing this article to me - this "garbage essay" - I wouldn't open and close with insults.

I predict multiple posters here would provide insults if I posted such an essay. Probably including yourself.

[Cow Poke]

I predict multiple posters here would provide insults if I posted such an essay. Probably including yourself.

If it were you, that's why I left the caveat....

Unless, of course, I knew you had evil intent.

[Leonhard]

Get ready for the haters to swoop in and tell you what an ignoramus you are.

I don't think seer is an ignoramous, but I think its pretty clear people here have made up their minds, and no actual discussion is taking place anymore.

[Cow Poke]

I don't think seer is an ignoramous, but I think its pretty clear people here have made up their minds, and no actual discussion is taking place anymore.

I've actually been having a fairly decent discussion with Starlight when he's not being a jerk.




(and when I'm also not being a jerk)

[Tassman]

Interesting

This is only of interest to those who for whatever dubious reasons, wish to deny the obvious. Namely that over 90% of climate scientists are certain global warming is occurring. "Every one of the past 40 years has been warmer than the 20th century average. 2016 was the hottest year on record. The 12 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. Over the past 130 years, the global average temperature has increased 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, with more than half of that increase occurring over only the past 35 years".

https://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/glob...e#.W_tLNIczYdU

Unless we take preventative action then we and our planet are in big trouble.