Record Employment

[Starlight]

though the US deficit is on the rise, not declining.

Sadly Republicans only pretend to care about the deficit when Democrats are in office. The moment Republicans get into office they ramp up the deficit as fast as possible. Their lack of principles gets tiresome.

[rogue06]

I don't know many predicting Trump would be a necessary disaster economically. Although we have yet to see the full effect of his trade war with Chine and others. Most economically minded people were glad he came to power.

The day after Trump was elected liberal economic guru Paul Krugman called his victory "the mother of all adverse effects," predicting "a global recession, with no end in sight" as a result.

[Cow Poke]

Sadly Republicans only pretend to care about the deficit when Democrats are in office. The moment Republicans get into office they ramp up the deficit as fast as possible. Their lack of principles gets tiresome.

But, at least they feel bad about it. (or, they used to )

[Tassman]

The day after Trump was elected liberal economic guru Paul Krugman called his victory "the mother of all adverse effects," predicting "a global recession, with no end in sight" as a result.

There's still time.

"The Trump administration is headed for a gigantic debt headache. Debt levels are piling up in the government, pushing borrowing costs higher. The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it will be increasing the size of its auctions to help pay for burgeoning budget deficits. While the Trump administration has said that economic growth would make up for shortfalls from tax cuts and spending increases, the early results do not bear that out.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/the-...-headache.html

It doesn't look good.

[seer]

That is good ... on its own. But the cost of letting that improvement cause us to ignore other very important issues related to fundamental principles of a successful democracy and freedom is potentially very, very high.

Jim

Have you lost any freedoms Jim? What do you expect to lose?

[rogue06]

There's still time.

Indeed. Anywhere from 2 to 6 years and a lot can happen in that time -- especially if the Democrats seize control of Congress and hurl us back into another economic malaise of the kind that they seem to enjoy. But Krugman and his ilk proclaimed that Trump would immediately send us spiraling into "a global recession, with no end in sight" whereas virtually the exact opposite is true.

[rogue06]

Have you lost any freedoms Jim? What do you expect to lose?

The "freedom" to smash the windows of some business and poop on a car parked nearby?

[Starlight]

especially if the Democrats seize control of Congress and hurl us back into another economic malaise of the kind that they seem to enjoy.

Given simple data analyses show that the US economy on average does better when there is a Democratic president rather than a Republican one, and on average does better when the Democratic party controls congress than when Republicans do, and given this is fairly often commented-upon by experts... your comment reads as if you're in lala land.

[Leonhard]

especially if the Democrats seize control of Congress and hurl us back into another economic malaise of the kind that they seem to enjoy.

If you take the geometric average, instead of just cherry-picking years (actually quarter periods) during Obama's terms, then the economic growth under Trump's two terms (I'll assume its going to be two terms) appears to be only around 15% greater than under Obama, and that's with me assuming that the market rise is going to continue at this rate. Though at the same time he's increased the deficit somewhat.

Now of course, if he can sustain the gdp growth rate at 4%, year in, year out, for the rest of his presidency, then of course the economy would have grown twice as fast during his presidency, than during Obama's, but I honestly doubt that's going to happen.

2.7% is my estimate as the average yearly gdp growth rate during his presidency.

[seer]

The "freedom" to smash the windows of some business and poop on a car parked nearby?

That would be just like East Germany!

[carpedm9587]

So, why is Trump not talking about that, and focusing on "the caravan(s)" instead?

Three things come to mind: First, the man is politically naive. Second, the man is convinced that the greatest motivator is fear/anger. Third, "immigrants" has become a hot point among his base, and he knows it will rally that base. Unfrotunately for him, it appears to be rallying the anti-Trump crowd as much or perhaps even more.

In truth, these records are a non-story. Total people working is going to keep climbing simply because the population keeps climbing. We can see that in the historical record. Since 1991, total people working has only seen declines twice: the dot.com bubble burst in 2001-2002, and the recession from 2008-2010. Other than that, increases happen year over year, and records are a matter of course. Obama didn't see "records" until 2015 because it took that long for the employment base to recover from the declines of 2008-2010. But we have seen consistent growth since 2010.

My thoughts...

[carpedm9587]

You kind of have to take Rasmussen polls with a grain of salt. I tend to follow the aggregators, like www.fivethirtyeight.com and www.realclearpolitics.com. If you look at the polling data for Trump job approval, for example, and scroll down and look at the polling results (left column), every time you hit a number that is significantly different from the others, it is pretty consistently a Rasmussen poll. They seem to skew an average of 8-10 points further to the right than most other polls, as indicated by the running average. For example, right now, the aggregate numbers for Trump approval are 44.1 approve and 52.7 disapprove, a gap of 8.6 towards disapproval. Rasmussen has it 51% approve, 47% disapprove, a gap of 4% towards approval. So they are 12.6 points away from the aggregate (an aggregate that is weighted to the right by Rasmussen itself, so the true gap is actually higher).

This gap is consistent across all polling data.

[carpedm9587]

It's like what is the difference between a large pizza and a philosophy degree - you can feed a family of four with the pizza...

Actually - I have a philosophy undergraduate degree. I am a reasonably successful business man who has started and run his own business for the last 10 years. What is happening in this thread is that people are confusing anecdotes for data. The hard data is the unemployment rate, which is extremely low, suggesting that people across all education sectors are finding jobs. As it turns out, college graduates from all all fields, even the humanities, are successfully finding jobs. The issue not so much about finding jobs as it is finding jobs related to their degree. Humanitarian and liberal arts students tend to not find jobs related to their degree, and they do tend to secure jobs that have a lower total income than the highest paying jobs (e.g., engineering, computer science, nursing, finance/accounting).

[Leonhard]

That would be just like East Germany!

And Denmark, and France, Sweden too... our youths always get a bit spirited when it comes to demonstrations. Though it takes a rather large one, and usually one attracting the BZ's and other Autonomous (extreme left wing movement in Denmark, basically our Antifa only with less restraint). Most of these are peaceful, and they're called the 'Pink block' but there's also 'Der Scharwze Block' who are filled with skinheads who enjoy the excuse for violence.

As always I'm against violence.

[Tassman]

Indeed. Anywhere from 2 to 6 years and a lot can happen in that time -- especially if the Democrats seize control of Congress and hurl us back into another economic malaise of the kind that they seem to enjoy.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...last-economics

But Krugman and his ilk proclaimed that Trump would immediately send us spiraling into "a global recession, with no end in sight" whereas virtually the exact opposite is true.