Originally posted by carpedm9587
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I just stumbled on this, and it explains a bit of what I'm seeing in the numbers. Apparently, the Dems have never really lost any significant ground over the months. What has been happening is that some of the "toss-ups" are solidifying, and the ones for the Reps seem to be solidifying at a faster rate. If you look at the statistics below, the Dems have hovered in a pickup range between +4 and +51. Over the past few weeks that rage has narrowed. Now their top predicted gain is +44. The bottom is now +11. With 193 seats currently, Dems need a pickup of 25 seats to take the house. That's just below the midline of the current +11 and +41 window (midline is +26).
I don't have have time to dig through the 30 current toss-ups to see how many have the Dem slightly ahead and how many have the Rep slightly ahead, and (for some reason) the house is the only segment that doesn't have a "no-toss-ups" map that depicts that. But I guess we'll know in 21 days. Right now, best guess is it looks "pretty good" for the Dems in the house - but unlikely for the Dems in the Senate.
By now you have probably discerned that I love to play with numbers...
I don't have have time to dig through the 30 current toss-ups to see how many have the Dem slightly ahead and how many have the Rep slightly ahead, and (for some reason) the house is the only segment that doesn't have a "no-toss-ups" map that depicts that. But I guess we'll know in 21 days. Right now, best guess is it looks "pretty good" for the Dems in the house - but unlikely for the Dems in the Senate.
By now you have probably discerned that I love to play with numbers...
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