Record Cold, US and Europe: Global Warming?

[carpedm9587]

Let's deal with the Gore tweet, via Michael Mann:

So they are claiming that bitter cold and snow are evidence for global warming, no matter how you parse it Carp, this is the bottom line. Yet, the last two or even three winters were milder and warmer with fewer snow storms - were they also evidence for AGW because the temperatures were above average? And if single weather events can not speak against AGW how do they then get to speak for AGW? Then there is the whole problem with deciding what is average, because without a base line, how do we know what is extreme - compared to what?

No - they are not claiming it is evidence for global warming - at least not in anything I read. They are saying that those who claim it is evidence AGAINST global warming are wrong, and they are noting that an increase in this kind of weather pattern is exactly what the glpobal warming climate models predict. That is NOT a claim that this specific storm "proves" global warming. It is a rebutal of the claim that it disproves global warming.

Singular weather events do NOT speak FOR global warming, and I have never heard a climatologist make this claim. I HAVE heard them rebut the claim made by climate deniers that a single storm DISPROVES global warming.

As for your question about baseline, it is not necessary to have an absolute baseline to show global warming. What is necessary is to show an upward trend in the global temperature. The graph I showed below, using the tropospheric data for the past 40 years shows exactly that pattern. It is visible in the graph, but can also be seen by using a trend line for [X] year rolling averages, where X can be any value - but the longer the year window, the less variation will be exhibited in the data (i.e., law of large numbers). If you use a rolling 10, 15, or 20 year average, you can clearly see the rise.

And I note that my question about this data, from my last post, is still getting.... crickets...

[seer]

No - they are not claiming it is evidence for global warming - at least not in anything I read. They are saying that those who claim it is evidence AGAINST global warming are wrong, and they are noting that an increase in this kind of weather pattern is exactly what the glpobal warming climate models predict. That is NOT a claim that this specific storm "proves" global warming. It is a rebutal of the claim that it disproves global warming.

That is the point - what kind of weather pattern wouldn't fit into their predictions, extremely cold winters as well as mild winters both do. Any thing can and has been made to fit. Like Gore said that is exactly what we should expect - that is evidence (not proof) for them Carp of AGW, no matter how you want to parse it. And I'm not sure what you mean by an increase in this kind of weather pattern - there hasn't been an increase of what we have seen this winter as compared to the last few winters - so that is bogus.

Singular weather events do NOT speak FOR global warming, and I have never heard a climatologist make this claim. I HAVE heard them rebut the claim made by climate deniers that a single storm DISPROVES global warming.

Then why say that this is exactly what AGW would predict? They are in fact using this single event to justify the theory, whether you want to see it or not.

As for your question about baseline, it is not necessary to have an absolute baseline to show global warming. What is necessary is to show an upward trend in the global temperature. The graph I showed below, using the tropospheric data for the past 40 years shows exactly that pattern. It is visible in the graph, but can also be seen by using a trend line for [X] year rolling averages, where X can be any value - but the longer the year window, the less variation will be exhibited in the data (i.e., law of large numbers). If you use a rolling 10, 15, or 20 year average, you can clearly see the rise.

But what is the point? 40 years tells us nothing. Were there similar or more extreme patterns 200 years ago, 500 years ago, 1,000 years ago? Our view is myopic and limited.

[tabibito]

I never said it was.

So is there a single prediction that global warming would lead to record cold temperatures throughout the world?

When record cold temperatures throughout the world occurs, there might be a point to consider.

World Temp Nov 2017.gif

Meanwhile, ocean depth continues to increase - the cause being increase from melting snow and ice coming off the land being the cause. Argument might be raised about the percentage contribution due to human activity, but the fact that the world is getting warmer is demonstrated.

[Starlight]

When record cold temperatures throughout the world occurs, there might be a point to consider.

I see Sydney, Australia, broke its previous record for hottest day yesterday with 47.1C / 116.8F.

But the US conservatives in this forum have regularly made clear they think the rest of the world doesn't count...

[tabibito]

I see Sydney, Australia, broke its previous record for hottest day yesterday with 47.1C / 116.8F.

But some of the US conservatives in this forum have regularly made clear they think the rest of the world doesn't exist...

FIFY

Still - there is a percentage of every nation's population that seems to have the same attitude - and it doesn't seem to be restricted by political persuasion.

[Leonhard]

That is the point - what kind of weather pattern wouldn't fit into their predictions, extremely cold winters as well as mild winters both do.

A single weather phenomenon localized to the US, at one point in time, can neither confirm nor deny Global Warming.

Any thing can and has been made to fit.

This is false seer. I've proposed several observations that would disconfirm that the Earth is getting colder. What you'd basically need is for the temperature record worldwide to show a sufficiently long pause/decline for long enough to rule out random fluctuations. This hasn't happened.

Like Gore said

Al Gore is not the one behind the science of climate change, nor is he himself a scientist. His views should be taken only as popular opinion and nothing else.

Then why say that this is exactly what AGW would predict?

Al Gore shouldn't be saying this.

They are in fact using this single event to justify the theory,

Who are 'they'?

The climate record consists of billions of temperature observations, from dozens and dozens of different and independent sources. The most important of which are the land and ocean surface temperature records we've got extending back about 100 years.

No scientist is basing the theory of global warming on whether it was, or wasn't cold on a tiny spot on the surface of the Earth called "The North-West part of the USA"

[tabibito]

I see Sydney, Australia, broke its previous record for hottest day yesterday with 47.1C / 116.8F.

Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
✔
@BOM_NSW

#SydneyHeat: Sorry, in our earlier checks we missed a 47.8 degrees C temperature recorded at an old #Richmond station (now closed) in 1939. 47.3 today still beats the previous #Penrith record.

This is the kind of thing that the "it isn't true" brigade would complain about if a correction showed that the previously published historical high temperature was overstated.
And the "it is true" brigade shows as much interest in portraying a single season as proof of climate warming when it goes their way. (Australian) Summer 2012-2013 broke more than 100 weather records including records for flooding and an unprecedented full week where temperatures topped 39 degrees nation-wide.The Bureau of Meteorology even had to add a new colour to the temperature graphs (purple: 52-54 degrees).
Much anger was expressed that the Bureau (quite rightly) didn't portray the season as evidence of climate warming.

[seer]

Al Gore is not the one behind the science of climate change, nor is he himself a scientist. His views should be taken only as popular opinion and nothing else.

Al Gore shouldn't be saying this.

Who are 'they'?

It wasn't just Al Gore saying this was Gore quoting Michael Mann, that AGW theory predicts such extreme cold and snow. Yet only a few years ago Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia was predicting an end to snow:https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/...-the-internet/

No scientist is basing the theory of global warming on whether it was, or wasn't cold on a tiny spot on the surface of the Earth called "The North-West part of the USA"

It isn't just a a small part of the US, it is the whole North American Continent. We are breaking 100 year old records. Records lows from Canada, to Texas, to New England to Florida to the West. And it has been happening for weeks:

actchill_1280x720.jpg

[Leonhard]

It wasn't just Al Gore saying this was Gore quoting Michael Mann, that AGW theory predicts such extreme cold and snow.

I couldn't find the supposed tweet that Michael Mann has sent about that. The only thing I could find referenced was an article which was a bit more nuanced than "Global Warming predicts extreme cold and snow"

You can find it here. https://www.climaterealityproject.or...climate-change

At no point is the words 'prediction' or 'predict' used there. It instead talks about how the US can experience such a cold front.

It isn't just a a small part of the US,

A quarter of the US, is still only a minute part of the world seer. That's what I meant. Though you're right its the north-east, and its more than a quarter, and it also extends a bit into Canada. The USA covers about 1.3% of the world. And this winter, even if it lasts week would only be about 8-10% of a year. That's hardly a representative sample.

it is the whole North American Continent. We are breaking 100 year old records. Records lows from Canada, to Texas, to New England to Florida to the West. And it has been happening for weeks:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]25832[/ATTACH]

Its only that upper purple part, in the upper quarter of the US (and a little bit into Canada ), which is below the average of the planet. The rest of the world is hotter, Africa is hotter, Russia is hotter, China is hotter, the Poles are hotter, Europe is mostly the same.

Out of all that space, the part of the US (and yes a little bit into Canada) that is colder than normal is almost nothing compared to the rest of the world. It barely registers on the global average.

[Leonhard]

What you need seer, is a normalized graph so you can see the deviations from an average temperature. That's why this image which has been posted before is useful. You see the whole world, and you can see that other areas are much warmer than usual.

[seer]

I couldn't find the supposed tweet that Michael Mann has sent about that. The only thing I could find referenced was an article which was a bit more nuanced than "Global Warming predicts extreme cold and snow"

You can find it here. https://www.climaterealityproject.or...climate-change

At no point is the words 'prediction' or 'predict' used there. It instead talks about how the US can experience such a cold front.

From your link:

an example of precisely the sort of extreme winter weather we expect because of climate change

https://www.climaterealityproject.or...icted-long-ago

And that is my point! What extreme or non-extreme weather couldn't be linked to climate change? We had a series of mild winters - well that too is exactly what we would expect from climate change! Your side tells us we can't use weather events, yet that is exactly what Mann is doing here - though more subtly. Like when he connected hurricane Harvey to Climate change. https://www.climaterealityproject.or...here-are-facts

[Leonhard]

From your link:

https://www.climaterealityproject.or...climate-change

And that is my point! What extreme or non-extreme weather couldn't be linked to climate change?

No individual climate event can prove or disprove Global Warming. Dr. Michael Mann does neither in it, at best he explains why increasing global temperatures could make a cold front like this more likely, but he's much more restrained than you're making him say. He did not say "Global Warming makes the US colder in winter", he just shows that it wasn't unexpected.

We had a series of mild winters - well that too is exactly what we would expect from climate change! Your side tells us we can't use weather events, yet that is exactly what Mann is doing here - though more subtly.

He does not use individual weather events to argue that Global Warming is happening seer. Not even subtly.

Like when he connected hurricane Harvey to Climate change. https://www.climaterealityproject.or...here-are-facts

[Leonhard]

Got the raw monthlies data for maximum, minimum and average temperatures for the GHCN data. Will start to look at it today. Its a bit of a messy dataset, but I'm used to that. There's a problem with multiple stations having the same identification code, and I'll have to figure out how to handle that. Apparently its because there were sometimes multiple instruments used at the same spot. I'll see if I can't find a way to make a proper local average out of all of them, otherwise I'll just pick one local instrument station.

[Juvenal]

Like when he connected hurricane Harvey to Climate change. https://www.climaterealityproject.or...here-are-facts

v.

[Mountain Man]

What you need seer, is a normalized graph so you can see the deviations from an average temperature.

Again with the "average" game.

First of all, I've checked ClimateReanalyzer.org's data sources, and they're coming from official record-keepers like NOAA and NASA which we already know deal in fraudulent science and are therefore unreliable (there is so much evidence for this point that it's beyond dispute as far as I'm concerned).

Secondly, you continue to play the "average = ideal" bait-and-switch. You can pick literally any point in Earth's history and claim it's higher or lower than an arbitrary average. So what? This in no way proves that there's something wrong that needs to be fixed, a proposition that is based on the almost certainly false -- or at least unproven -- premise that man can do anything to meaningfully alter the earth's climate.