Roy Moore accused of sexual contact with 14-year old

[Teallaura]

Provisional ballots are often pointed to as the "saving grace" for voterID, but they still require the person to be verified after the election day (within two weeks), so it is not clear to me how that is going to happen without ID. That being said, I have no statistics about how deeply this impacts. My assumption is that the data I provided early includes people who are able to vote provisionally, but I cannot say I know that for a fact.

If we were seeing actual disenfranchisement, we should see a lot of provisional ballots - but we don't.

[Teallaura]

In most states (I do not know about Alabama) a provisional ballot is only counted if the voter can be verified as a registered, legal voter within 2 weeks of the election date. That process is only undertaken if the vote is within the number of provisional ballots cast (as indicated in CP's post).

A provision ballot is NOT a guarantee of being counted. ID or some proof needs to be provided. What exactly that proof is varies widely.

Didn't say it was - but if we were really disenfranchising people, we should see an increase in the number of provisional ballots and that has not materialized.

[Adrift]

African American, Black Belt.

[carpedm9587]

If we were seeing actual disenfranchisement, we should see a lot of provisional ballots - but we don't.

Again, Teal - not necessarily. You will not see provisional ballots for the people who do not have IDs and simply do not show up to vote, believing they cannot or the game is rigged against them. You cannot assume, from the lack of provisional ballots, that disenfranchisement is NOT occurring. The best you can say is it MAY not be occurring. But the statistics suggest otherwise.

And this is only one of many ways voters are disenfranchised. There is a long record of systematically closing polling places in more predominantly black districts to create longer lines and a greater number of people abandoning the vote because it is taking too long.

The left has had its dirty tricks as well (e.g., announcing to one district that Republican voting was being deferred for one day to reduce the lines at the polls, and slashing the tires of "take you to the polls" cars so they could not be used), so it is not just the right that is guilty of trying to put their thumb on the electoral scales. Ultimately, all of these things, IMO, are unpatriotic and unamerican activities.

[carpedm9587]

Didn't say it was - but if we were really disenfranchising people, we should see an increase in the number of provisional ballots and that has not materialized.

See my other response...

[Teallaura]

Early results: 16% tallied - Moore 51%, Jones 48%

[Adrift]

This conversation about voter ID reminds me of this video I saw, I think, on Reddit.

[Teallaura]

Again, Teal - not necessarily. You will not see provisional ballots for the people who do not have IDs and simply do not show up to vote, believing they cannot or the game is rigged against them. You cannot assume, from the lack of provisional ballots, that disenfranchisement is NOT occurring. The best you can say is it MAY not be occurring. But the statistics suggest otherwise.

And this is only one of many ways voters are disenfranchised. There is a long record of systematically closing polling places in more predominantly black districts to create longer lines and a greater number of people abandoning the vote because it is taking too long.

The left has had its dirty tricks as well (e.g., announcing to one district that Republican voting was being deferred for one day to reduce the lines at the polls, and slashing the tires of "take you to the polls" cars so they could not be used), so it is not just the right that is guilty of trying to put their thumb on the electoral scales. Ultimately, all of these things, IMO, are unpatriotic and unamerican activities.

Um, Carpe, that would also be true if they were already disenfranchised - in which case the law had no effect.

But more likely is that people who were voting and were not able to vote now would show in provisional ballots. The self-disenfranchised (turnout is rarely that large in Alabama) remaining disenfranchised is not the issue for the complaint of disenfranchisement.

[One Bad Pig]

LGM's appropriate posts were filled with vitriolic mockery. That's how he got on my ignore list to begin with. Theonomy got stung and turned getting rid of him into a campaign.

Quite possible, re Theonomy, but he wasn't one of the decision-makers. LGM was easily the most conflicted banning we've done; most of the leaders were reluctant to pull the trigger, and he probably got more rope than most would've.

[Raphael]

They killed Kenny.

mmmmm Kilkenny, I haven't had a pint of that in ages......

[guacamole]

Is that a real movie? Cuz I would watch the heck out of that movie if it were a real movie.

[Teallaura]

Is that a real movie? Cuz I would watch the heck out of that movie if it were a real movie.

Yep.

[guacamole]

Yep.

I just watched the trailer. That looks amazing.

[Teallaura]

55% Reporting:
Moore 52%
Jones 46%

[Cow Poke]

Roy Moore leads by 7 percentage points over Doug Jones with 59 percent of precincts fully reporting.