The Morning Plum has a reasonable analysis of the likely fallout of the Moore candidacy as of today. I'm going to spin off of that.
If Moore stays in and wins, McConnell will launch an ethics probe which can have only one outcome. He will certainly launch the probe, because even if he isn't all in on the 38-year-old misdemeanor charge, he surely doesn't want another loose cannon in his caucus.
Alabama may love him, but everyone else thinks he's toxic, and has been thinking that even before the current scandal broke. At that point, Governor Kay Ivey will make an interim appointment of another Republican, which will safeguard McConnell's majority.
Alternatively, if Moore stays in and loses, which is actually possible, the seat will shift to the Democrats, who have a strong candidate in Doug Jones.
If Moore drops out, any replacement would have to run as a write-in, which may have worked out okay for Murkowski in Alaska, but she was already well known, and incumbent. The analogous incumbent in Alabama already has a job, though it's not shaping up to be as fun as he might have thought when he went in. I think Sessions could win as a write-in, but doubt anyone else could. I think this could be the perfect excuse for him to jump ship.
No Republican write-in can win if Moore stays in. He'll split the vote.
Sans a Sessions write-in, the least worst option for McConnell is to have Moore stay in and win, which will still freeze the Senate until he's removed, which will effectively sideline the only adults in the house as North Korea turns the last bolts on a nuclear missile that could hit the US.
I'm not liking this option. Moore should drop out, for the good of the country.
Republican partisans should start appealing for Sessions to recapture his seat.
If Moore stays in and wins, McConnell will launch an ethics probe which can have only one outcome. He will certainly launch the probe, because even if he isn't all in on the 38-year-old misdemeanor charge, he surely doesn't want another loose cannon in his caucus.
Alabama may love him, but everyone else thinks he's toxic, and has been thinking that even before the current scandal broke. At that point, Governor Kay Ivey will make an interim appointment of another Republican, which will safeguard McConnell's majority.
Alternatively, if Moore stays in and loses, which is actually possible, the seat will shift to the Democrats, who have a strong candidate in Doug Jones.
If Moore drops out, any replacement would have to run as a write-in, which may have worked out okay for Murkowski in Alaska, but she was already well known, and incumbent. The analogous incumbent in Alabama already has a job, though it's not shaping up to be as fun as he might have thought when he went in. I think Sessions could win as a write-in, but doubt anyone else could. I think this could be the perfect excuse for him to jump ship.
No Republican write-in can win if Moore stays in. He'll split the vote.
Sans a Sessions write-in, the least worst option for McConnell is to have Moore stay in and win, which will still freeze the Senate until he's removed, which will effectively sideline the only adults in the house as North Korea turns the last bolts on a nuclear missile that could hit the US.
I'm not liking this option. Moore should drop out, for the good of the country.
Republican partisans should start appealing for Sessions to recapture his seat.
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