538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

[Sam]

It's always better to rely on what 538 says than to rely on what the Post Millenial says that 538 says.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
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The 2024 presidential election starts out in our forecast as a toss-up. While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection. Right now, Biden is favored to win in 489 out of 1,000 simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 508 of our simulations. In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

Look at the slider, and you'll see the projections have been swapping between Biden and Trump since the beginning of June.

Yes, but I think the gist of the OP is accurate enough, in that 538's projection currently has Trump edging out Biden in its simulation run. Everyone should, of course, understand exactly what that means and understand that it's not in the least smart in June to put any money on what's still essentially a 50/50 bet for November but it's true enough that Trump is narrowly winning in 538's algorithm.

-Sam

[Cow Poke]

Yes, but I think the gist of the OP is accurate enough, in that 538's projection currently has Trump edging out Biden in its simulation run. Everyone should, of course, understand exactly what that means and understand that it's not in the least smart in June to put any money on what's still essentially a 50/50 bet for November but it's true enough that Trump is narrowly winning in 538's algorithm.

-Sam

And I think that's the main point --- it's a first, though there's still a long way to go and a lot can happen between now and then.

[Cow Poke]

Well, isn't that a Christian pastor like think to say.

Absolutely - I'd miss you. As long as you're still breathing, you still have an opportunity to honor your mom's wishes.

[Starlight]

It would be hilarious if Trump won again. It would also be completely devastating to the US's reputation, which is something I can support.

But one of the interesting factors in the polling thus far is the strong connection between people who report being low-information (not following news, and knowing very little about politics) and people who say they're currently leaning Trump. In the lead-up to the election, I've got to imagine that people are going to be bombarded with political discourse, so the low-information group are going to learn something. It looks like that will probably work in Biden's favor.

One of the other interesting things in the polling seems to be that Democrats are doing very well down-ballot. There seem to be a lot of voters out there who are voting solidly Dem down the ballot, but leaving off Biden's name at the top of the ticket. It's unusual for that to happen (although I can personally understand it, because that's probably how I would vote this election if I was American), as it's usually regarded as working the other way - people are supposed to vote down-ballot down the party line because they're voting for the person at the top of the ticket. It really shows how poorly the Dems have chosen in having Biden as their candidate, pretty much literally any other Dem would have been a better choice. It's looking like Dems will perform above expectations in the House and Senate, but they might lose the Presidency, which is a weird outcome.

[Diogenes]

It would be hilarious if Trump won again. It would also be completely devastating to the US's reputation, which is something I can support.

Given Biden's mental challenges, I can't see Trump being "completely devastating to the US' reputation" more than re-electing Biden.

[Starlight]

Given Biden's mental challenges, I can't see Trump being "completely devastating to the US' reputation" more than re-electing Biden.

Trump has similar mental challenges that cause people around the world to laugh at him.

Earlier this week we had the wonderful sharks vs electrified boat death ramble. I shared it with friends who laughed at him.

My own first introduction to US politics was George Bush jokes which did the rounds. e.g.

Donald Rumsfeld is giving the president his daily briefing. He concludes by saying: "Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed."

"OH NO!" the President exclaims. "That's terrible!"

His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.

Finally, the President looks up and asks, "How many is a brazillion?"

But at least those were fictional, and just made up to mock Bush's perceived idiocy. With Trump, it's real idiotic comments that do the rounds for people to laugh at him. Whether it be about windmills causing cancer, him telling boy scouts about yacht sex parties, or the above crazy anecdote about sharks and sinking electric boats, Trump's always got something hilariously insane.

Biden's mental foibles come across as normal aging, and people feel bad for him, but they're very rarely funny. Whereas with Trump, people almost always laugh at him for the inane stupidity of his mental foibles, and I know it's a bit bad to be laughing at an insane old man for his mental insanity caused by aging, but Trump really does come up with the weirdest stuff, and Trump is a bad enough person that people feel okay laughing at him. As a result, Trump's weirdness gets replayed around the world and people laugh at him, and America, whereas Biden's ones don't tend to get replayed and shared because people just feel bad for him.

[Diogenes]

Trump has similar mental challenges that cause people around the world to laugh at him.

Earlier this week we had the wonderful sharks vs electrified boat death ramble. I shared it with friends who laughed at him.


But at least those were fictional, and just made up to mock Bush's perceived idiocy. With Trump, it's real idiotic comments that do the rounds for people to laugh at him. Whether it be about windmills causing cancer, him telling boy scouts about yacht sex parties, or the above crazy anecdote about sharks and sinking electric boats, Trump's always got something hilariously insane.

At least Trump is speaking coherently in an amusing hypothetical. None of that makes Trump "insane" or having "similar mental challenges" to Biden.

My own first introduction to US politics was George Bush jokes which did the rounds. e.g.

Donald Rumsfeld is giving the president his daily briefing. He concludes by saying: "Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed."

"OH NO!" the President exclaims. "That's terrible!"

His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.

Finally, the President looks up and asks, "How many is a brazillion?"

That is funny.

[Starlight]

That is funny.

I'm surprised you haven't heard it before. Bush had the misfortune to be in office when email was becoming ubiquitous. Chain-email humour was a thing for several years, and jokes based around Bush's perceived idiocy were a common theme.

[Juvenal]

Yes, but I think the gist of the OP is accurate enough, in that 538's projection currently has Trump edging out Biden in its simulation run. Everyone should, of course, understand exactly what that means and understand that it's not in the least smart in June to put any money on what's still essentially a 50/50 bet for November but it's true enough that Trump is narrowly winning in 538's algorithm.

-Sam

The o/p says "538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election." 538 doesn't think this is anything other than a toss-up and says so. I'm going to resist calling a direct contradiction "accurate enough." There's no excuse for citing 538 and then neglecting to use them directly. 538 is not behind a paywall, and a link was provided in the second paragraph of the o/p article.

And it's 1000 simulation runs. The results and the sums of those results are statistical and as such come with an expected value, and also with an expected error in that value. We have the perfect example of what that means from 538 itself, or more precisely, its previous incarnation before being acquired by ABC.

NOV. 4, 2016, AT 11:09 AM
Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton
By Harry Enten
Filed under 2016 Election
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And to be clear, we shouldn’t expect a polling error just because national polls struggled in the 2012 presidential election and in some international votes since then. The polling in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections was quite good (after two elections in which the national polls were well off the mark). Also, in half of the contests since 1968, the final polls missed by a percentage point or less.

Still, Clinton’s lead is small enough that it wouldn’t take more than a normal amount of polling error to wipe the lead out and leave Trump the winner of the national popular vote. If Clinton wins by 3 percentage points, she’s very likely to win the White House. But that’s still a medium-sized “if.”

A small final error, within normal bounds, was still sufficient to change the result.

The error in 2016 amounted to a few points in a few states, enough to create an electoral college victory despite a popular defeat, mirroring the first Bush election. What's notable this time is that Biden has been favored in 538's electoral college simulations despite a very consistent popular vote lead by Trump, between 1 percent and 1.5 percent for most of the time I've been tracking it this year. Prior advantages for the Rs in the electoral college led me to believe, incorrectly, that Trump's popular vote lead would be determinative.

As you note, we're still on the lee side of the conventions which is when I start taking more than an academic interest in polling results.

The only polling result with any news value is the remarkable stability of Trump's popular vote lead over Biden despite the turmoil surrounding his felony convictions.

[seer]

Jim, if Trump pulls off a win, do you promise not to harm yourself?

Well Psychologists will have a banner year!

[Mountain Man]

I still have vivid memories of 2020 when Trump's insurmountable lead was suddenly paused and reversed in the middle of night when nobody was paying attention. The Democrats did it once and got away with it, so there's a good chance they'll try it again. I just hope the Republicans, or more specifically Trump's team, is prepared to watch the vote counters like hawks, refusing to leave no matter they're told until the final results are delivered. And if any of the tables are covered with long, black tablecloths, they better check under them to make sure there aren't boxes of ballots hiding under there.

To follow up on my earlier comment, it seems Republicans are, at least ostensibly, taking things more seriously this time around and have "launched a swing state initiative to mobilize thousands of polling place monitors, poll workers and attorneys to serve as 'election integrity' watchdogs in November". Of course Democrats are crying foul and and have hilariously claimed this will undermine the public's trust in the voting process.

[Diogenes]

To follow up on my earlier comment, it seems Republicans are, at least ostensibly, taking things more seriously this time around and have "launched a swing state initiative to mobilize thousands of polling place monitors, poll workers and attorneys to serve as 'election integrity' watchdogs in November". Of course Democrats are crying foul and and have hilariously claimed this will undermine the public's trust in the voting process.

Very reminiscent of "x isn't in schools but banning x to be in schools is bad" and then surprisingly, "x" turns out to be in schools.

[Ronson]

Lots can happen, for sure.

I think the Biden Team® (since Biden himself is too busy stumbling) is busy trying to manufacture some sort of "lots can happen." Perhaps a war.

[Cow Poke]

The o/p says "538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election." 538 doesn't think this is anything other than a toss-up and says so. ....

From 538's website....


538.jpg

[Starlight]

From 538's website....


538.jpg

With reference to the thread title, do you understand what it means when a news outlet says "we project the winner of the election to be X"?

It doesn't mean what you just posted.