2023 US jobs report revised downward by nearly half a million

[Sam]

The fact is, the precipitous drop in the labor force participation rate actually has nothing to do with people retiring in droves. On the contrary, a growing number of older worker are staying in the labor market longer because they can't afford to retire. It's the younger folks who are not returning to the labor market post-pandemic:

Whether by choice or financial necessity, millions of older Americans have made the [decision not to retire]. Nearly 64 percent of adults between the ages of 55 and 64 were working in April [2022], essentially the same rate as in February 2020. That’s a more complete recovery than among most younger age groups.

The rapid rebound has surprised many economists, who thought that fear of the virus — which is far deadlier for older people — would contribute to a wave of early retirements, especially because many people’s savings had been fattened by years of market gains. But there is increasing evidence that the early-retirement narrative was overblown.

“The bottom line is that older workers have gone back to work,” said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

For many people, retiring early was never an option...

[...]

The share of Americans reporting that they were retired did rise sharply in the spring of 2020. But retirement is not an irreversible decision. And research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has found that at the pandemic’s onset, there was a steep drop in the number of people leaving retirement to return to work, attributable at least partly to fear of the virus and a lack of job opportunities, swelling the ranks of the retired.

As the economy has reopened and the public health situation has improved, these “unretirements” have rebounded and have recently returned roughly to their prepandemic rate, according to an analysis of government data by Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/b...bor-force.html

And, no, governments do not produce. They can only spend. Giving tax dollars to private contractors to build highways, or paying the military industrial complex to build weapons, or pouring money into Medicaid and Medicare, is not production, it is an expense. As I said, it's the old adage of robbing Peter to pay Paul. All the government can do is move monetary resources from one sector (tax payers) to another (private industry). It's a lateral move that adds nothing to the economy.

BLS and FRED data have been provided here that show both a higher rate of retirement than expected since mid-2020 and that the 16-54 age group has rebounded to the same participation rate. You either don't understand the data or you're ignoring it to continue a line of argument that's been demonstrated false.

"Government jobs don't produce anything", likewise, is shown to be demonstrably false -- even before getting into concepts like force multipliers. "Giving tax dollars to private contractors to create infrastructure, goods, and services is a lateral move" is just ... nonsense. How much revenue is generated by the existence of an interstate highway system? More or less than the government's expenditure to create that system?

-Sam

[Mountain Man]

BLS and FRED data have been provided here that show both a higher rate of retirement than expected since mid-2020 and that the 16-54 age group has rebounded to the same participation rate. You either don't understand the data or you're ignoring it to continue a line of argument that's been demonstrated false.

"Government jobs don't produce anything", likewise, is shown to be demonstrably false -- even before getting into concepts like force multipliers. "Giving tax dollars to private contractors to create infrastructure, goods, and services is a lateral move" is just ... nonsense. How much revenue is generated by the existence of an interstate highway system? More or less than the government's expenditure to create that system?

-Sam

Your cherry picked data has already been addressed and refuted. Sorry.

And, no, governments don't produce, they can only spend. The US government has no capacity to produce anything. Your argument is like claiming that you are producing something every time you go to the store and spend money.

[rogue06]

Even if we accept that rationalization, problem is, those supposedly "excess" retirees are not being replaced by new workers. Couple that with mass layoffs and hiring freezes across multiple industries, and the overall picture remains grim.

As for government jobs, they are a drain on the economy. Governments don't produce anything, and government employees are paid for by our taxes (it's like the old saying "robbing Peter to pay Paul"). That's why they are often not counted in job creation numbers.

Not many things become more efficient, more cost productive, by adding more layers of bureaucracy

[JimL]

So record high public and private debt is indicative the economy is "doing fantastically well"?

[Diogenes]

So Trump's Covid aid was "no good reason" and Trump did not inherit Afghanistan?

[JimL]

Your cherry picked data has already been addressed and refuted. Sorry.

And, no, governments don't produce, they can only spend. The US government has no capacity to produce anything. Your argument is like claiming that you are producing something every time you go to the store and spend money.

Just couldn't bare seeing those glowing employment numbers could you MM. Every single indicator of economic conditions that you can look at shows the remarkable and totally unpredicted rebound its made. Whether it be continuing better than expected job creation every month including 353,000 new jobs in January almost doubling the predicted 185,000. Inflation is down from a high of 9% to round 3.7% and wages are rising faster than the inflation rate which taken in tandem virtually brings costs down for consumers. Consumer Sentiment (confidence) is rising fast, up by 29% through November and December alone and people are spending like there's no tomorrow. GDP is way up, Start-up businesses way up. Oh, and lets notforget that continuously record breaking Stock Market. No matter what indicator you look at it proves that you and your right wing purveyors of economic doom and gloom were not only wrong, but that, hopeful as they were for a crash and recession, they didn't have a clue.
I know it hurts, you didnt get that economic crash and recession that you so badly were hoping for, but cheer up man, youre supposed to be happy that you were so totally and so embarrassingly wrong. You know as much as you hate to acknowledge the great results from Bidenomics, consider yourself lucky to have been wrong, because you are. Rejoice man, rejoice.

[Mountain Man]

Just couldn't bare seeing those glowing employment numbers could you MM.

The glowing employment numbers are false. That's why the government had to quietly delete nearly half a million jobs from the 2023 statistics. And the trend continues, with latest numbers always released with great fanfare from the liberal media only to be quietly revised downward later, which the liberal media purposely ignores, of course.

Plus, unlike you, I actually work for my money and do my own shopping, so despite gaslighting from liberals like you, I know how terrible the Main Street economy really is

[Sam]

The glowing employment numbers are false. That's why the government had to quietly delete nearly half a million jobs from the 2023 statistics. And the trend continues, with latest numbers always released with great fanfare from the liberal media only to be quietly revised downward later, which the liberal media purposely ignores, of course.

Plus, unlike you, I actually work for my money and do my own shopping, so despite gaslighting from liberals like you, I know how terrible the Main Street economy really is

Even with revisions, BLS data shows better job growth during Biden's administration than in the Trump administration (pre-pandemic).

latest_numbers_CES0000000001_2014_2024_all_period_M01_net_1mth.gif
So the government data is "false" when it's "glowing", "true" when it's revised downward (but not when it's revised upward, as it was in 2022?), and "cherry-picked" when it demonstrates excess retirements and rebounded labor participation for ages 16-54.

That calls for a different kind of citation.

1588091878-20200428.png

-Sam

[JimL]

The glowing employment numbers are false. That's why the government had to quietly delete nearly half a million jobs from the 2023 statistics. And the trend continues, with latest numbers always released with great fanfare from the liberal media only to be quietly revised downward later, which the liberal media purposely ignores, of course.

Plus, unlike you, I actually work for my money and do my own shopping, so despite gaslighting from liberals like you, I know how terrible the Main Street economy really is

So, if the job creation numbers are revised upwards as they were in November by 9000 more jobs, and December by 117,000 more new jobs, that would be a good thing, right.

MM, ya know there comes a time when, as much as you hate to do it, you have to stop fighting and face the facts. Otherwise you just make yourself look like a complete phoney, earning yourself a reputation of one who can never be taken seriously because you're really not interested in the truth, and have no ability to ever admit that you could be wrong.

[Mountain Man]

Even with revisions, BLS data shows better job growth during Biden's administration than in the Trump administration (pre-pandemic).

latest_numbers_CES0000000001_2014_2024_all_period_M01_net_1mth.gif
So the government data is "false" when it's "glowing", "true" when it's revised downward (but not when it's revised upward, as it was in 2022?), and "cherry-picked" when it demonstrates excess retirements and rebounded labor participation for ages 16-54.

-Sam

What is that chart even showing? It's just a line across a graph with some numbers. I have no idea how that's supposed to be interpreted.

As for supposed "job growth", the majority of that since the pandemic is employers rehiring after laying people off, they're not new jobs being created. I've already shown you data proving that there are significantly fewer people in the labor market now than there were before the pandemic, and I debunked your "retirement" narrative with a study showing that older people are not retiring, and that it's young people who haven't returned to the work force.

Look, no matter how much you spin and gaslight and post cryptic charts, the big picture remains the same: the economy is doing poorly and remains far behind where it was before the pandemic. That's just the basic fact.

[Mountain Man]

MM, ya know there comes a time when, as much as you hate to do it, you have to stop fighting and face the facts.

I face the facts every time I go to the grocery store and spend significantly more for my groceries than I did three years ago.

[Sam]

What is that chart even showing? It's just a line across a graph with some numbers. I have no idea how that's supposed to be interpreted.

As for supposed "job growth", the majority of that since the pandemic is employers rehiring after laying people off, they're not new jobs being created. I've already shown you data proving that there are significantly fewer people in the labor market now than there were before the pandemic, and I debunked your "retirement" narrative with a study showing that older people are not retiring, and that it's young people who haven't returned to the work force.

Look, no matter how much you spin and gaslight and post cryptic charts, the big picture remains the same: the economy is doing poorly and remains far behind where it was before the pandemic. That's just the basic fact.

Y-axis: 1-month net monthly change. Anything above the black bar means more jobs were added than lost compared to the previous month. Higher on the y-axis means more jobs. What you see is job growth under Biden's term being better than job growth under Trump's term, even prior to the pandemic.

-Sam

[JimL]

What is that chart even showing? It's just a line across a graph with some numbers. I have no idea how that's supposed to be interpreted.

As for supposed "job growth", the majority of that since the pandemic is employers rehiring after laying people off, they're not new jobs being created. I've already shown you data proving that there are significantly fewer people in the labor market now than there were before the pandemic, and I debunked your "retirement" narrative with a study showing that older people are not retiring, and that it's young people who haven't returned to the work force.

Look, no matter how much you spin and gaslight and post cryptic charts, the big picture remains the same: the economy is doing poorly and remains far behind where it was before the pandemic. That's just the basic fact.

That basic fact is that you live in an alternative facts dream world MM. Although, of course, that's nothing new with you MM. But the economy, amazing as it seems, as difficult as it is for you to accept, is actually doing better than even "pre-pandemic" predictions had it doing at this point in time.The U.S. economy has not only recovered marvelously from the pandemic driven crash MM, but it is also doing better, far, far better than the economic recoveries of any other country in the world. You do realize it was a world wide, not just a U.S. pandemic and economic crash, right? How do you suppose the U.S. was able to achieve such excellent results for itself, as well as, relatively speaking, so much the better results than the rest of the world? I guess there is only one word that explains it. "BIDENOMICS" Oh my goodness, this reality, this great news, must be so painful for a denialist like yourself to know and have to deal with. It doesn't have to be that way ya know, you could join the real world, stop making yourself look foolish, and swing your mood from misplaced anger to thankful joy knowing that you live in the best recovered economy in the whole wide world!

[Mountain Man]

Y-axis: 1-month net monthly change. Anything above the black bar means more jobs were added than lost compared to the previous month. Higher on the y-axis means more jobs. What you see is job growth under Biden's term being better than job growth under Trump's term, even prior to the pandemic.

-Sam

Okay, but how is that number actually calculated? As noted, the overwhelming majority of supposed job "growth" during Joe's time in office has not been new jobs but simply companies rehiring employees that had been laid off during the pandemic. There's also the fact that job growth numbers during Joe's term have been repeatedly revised downward throughout the year, and even that wasn't sufficient in 2023 because then the government quietly removed nearly half a million more jobs from the statistics. And we can also see from the labor force participation rate that a significant number of people haven't returned to work, which has nothing to do with older workers retiring but is reflecting the fact that it's younger workers who are leaving the labor market.

As I said, while you can zero in on isolated statistics and say, "Gee, that looks pretty good!" taking everything into account paints a much different picture.

[Sam]

Okay, but how is that number actually calculated? As noted, the overwhelming majority of supposed job "growth" during Joe's time in office has not been new jobs but simply companies rehiring employees that had been laid off during the pandemic. There's also the fact that job growth numbers during Joe's term have been repeatedly revised downward throughout the year, and even that wasn't sufficient in 2023 because then the government quietly removed nearly half a million more jobs from the statistics. And we can also see from the labor force participation rate that a significant number of people haven't returned to work, which has nothing to do with older workers retiring but is reflecting the fact that it's younger workers who are leaving the labor market.

As I said, while you can zero in on isolated statistics and say, "Gee, that looks pretty good!" taking everything into account paints a much different picture.

Recovery growth is still growth.

You are mistaken: the "nearly half a million" figure is taken by adding up all the revisions of monthly job numbers throughout the year; it's not in addition to those revisions.

As previously demonstrated, the labor force participation rate of young workers has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.

-Sam