The weather for 2016

[shunyadragon]

Current trends indicate that the El Nino is ending and La Nina is emerging. This article has good graphs and temoerature records for April and May 2016 supporting this change is taking place.

[shunyadragon]

the data will be out for June in a week or so. While we are waiting I thought would bring up Global rise in CO2. The elephant in the room is the dramatic rise in CO2 levels due to human influence.

Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/

The data will be out for June in a week or so, but while I am waiting I thought I would bring up the elephant in the room concerning the human influence on global climate change, the dramatic rise in atmospheric CO2 levels.

Ancient air bubbles trapped in ice enable us to step back in time and see what Earth's atmosphere, and climate, were like in the distant past. They tell us that levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are higher than they have been at any time in the past 400,000 years. During ice ages, CO2 levels were around 200 parts per million (ppm), and during the warmer interglacial periods, they hovered around 280 ppm (see fluctuations in the graph). In 2013, CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in recorded history. This recent relentless rise in CO2 shows a remarkably constant relationship with fossil-fuel burning, and can be well accounted for based on the simple premise that about 60 percent of fossil-fuel emissions stay in the air.

Today, we stand on the threshold of a new geologic era, which some term the "Anthropocene", one where the climate is very different to the one our ancestors knew.

If fossil-fuel burning continues at a business-as-usual rate, such that humanity exhausts the reserves over the next few centuries, CO2 will continue to rise to levels of order of 1500 ppm. The atmosphere would then not return to pre-industrial levels even tens of thousands of years into the future. This graph not only conveys the scientific measurements, but it also underscores the fact that humans have a great capacity to change the climate and planet.

Credit
Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Some description adapted from the Scripps CO2 Program website, "Keeling Curve Lessons."

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http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/

The graphic of the site is very impressive.

Also we need a break from Jorge's science fiction lessons.

[HumbleThinker]

Not sure if this has been linked to before, but I've found this site a good resource on climate change including news and rebuttals to common arguments against AGW. http://www.skepticalscience.com/

The general trends as far as the arguments go seem to be that the consensus predictions on various markers of climate change have actually been too conservative and that the arguments against tend to rely on anomaly hunting, expert cherry picking, and/or misinterpreting (unintentionally or intentionally) scientific findings similar to what happened with leaded gasoline and cigarettes.

[stfoskey15]

It looks like the past six months have been pretty warm across most of the globe. Unfortunately, data seems pretty limited across much of South America and Africa.

(From the Alaska Climate Info Facebook page)

[shunyadragon]

It looks like the past six months have been pretty warm across most of the globe. Unfortunately, data seems pretty limited across much of South America and Africa.

(From the Alaska Climate Info Facebook page)

I believe one of the reason for the lack of temperature monitoring the tropical belt of South America and Asia is Rain Forest tropical temperatures do not vary as much of the rest of the world this is also true of the Antarctic temperatures, and to a lesser extent the Arctic.

[shunyadragon]

Source: http://reason.com/blog/2016/07/01/june-2016-was-2nd-warmest-june-in-satell

June 2016 Was 2nd Warmest June in Satellite Record: Global Temperature Trend Update

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[shunyadragon]

Source: https://weather.com/news/news/noaa-report-june-temperatures-record-warmth

June 2016 Was Warmest on Record for Lower 48, NOAA Says

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[TheLurch]

NASA now has the June numbers up:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

[sylas]

My guesstimate:

2016 will be even hotter than 2015. That's a big call; because 2015 was a huge spike in temperatures; generally we'd expect things to cool down a bit after a big spike. I do expect a cool down; but I think it may well be in 2017 rather than 2016. El Nino generally seems to have a slightly delayed effect on global temperatures; which means that even as the current El Nino fades, its effects should continue well into 2016... which means 2016 is very likely to be another hot year (mean global anomaly).

Nice call by me, back in January! I admit I lucked out somewhat; short term predictions are a good way to loose your shirt. Looking at this now, with six months data in, the odds of 2016 setting a new record over and above 2015 are very strong. The coming cooler years (probably 2017 and 2018) will be markedly cooler than 2015/2016.... but I don't expect them to fall back below what we were seeing through 2010-2014. La Nina will bring in a cooler global anomaly to mark the end of the El Nino spike; but the underlying global warming trend goes on. Ocean temperatures confirm this; they are still soaking up lots of extra heat thanks to the enhanced greenhouse effect.)

Cheers -- sylas

[shunyadragon]

The NOAA Analysis for June 2016 is in on https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201606

[Roy]

Nice call by me, back in January! I admit I lucked out somewhat; short term predictions are a good way to loose your shirt.

[Princess bride] Yes, you're very smart. Shut up. [/Princess bride]

[shunyadragon]

The following is an interesting site on the trends of el ninos and la ninas over recent history, The graphs show a cyclic progressive increasing intensity of the Oceanic el ninos in a ~9-15 year cycle.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

I would show the graph, but I do not know how to do that,

[shunyadragon]

Where are we at concerning the el nino/la nina transition?

Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

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On possible consequence of the coming La Nina years is the hurricane freqency may increase, particularly next year.

[TheLurch]

July's NASA numbers are out. Once again, hottest July on record. Gavin Schmidt, who runs NASA's Goddard Institute, indicates we're now at the point where 2016 has a 99% chance of being a new record:
https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/s...37770839269378

[shunyadragon]

From NASA