The weather for 2016

[sylas]

Any claim of this sort would have to be somewhat tentative, of course. We cannot really test such inferences directly. Be that as it may, there are

• Thompson et al, A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature, Nature 453, 646-649 (29 May 2008) doi
• Foster et al, , in Environmental Research Letters, Volume 6, Number 4, Dec 2011, doi.
• Fawcett et al, On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 14, July 2008, doi

Some recent blog articles from (what I consider to be) reputable active working scientists in the field, specifically on the role of ENSO for the 2015 record.

• At open mind, by tamino (actually a statistician rather than pure scientist, but active publishing on climate related statistical analysis): .
• At realclimate, by Gavin Schmidt: 2015 temperatures. (Look at the update at the end of the blog post, which was added specifically to address this question of the ENSO contribution.)

Some data with my own comments. (Data from the most recent GISTEMP dataset.)

ElNinoYearsGISTEMP.JPG

[sylas]

Update to previous post... just after posting, I found another blog post on this very topic. The source in this case is a not particularly widely known blog called "Climate Lab Book"; one of my favourites. It is by another working climate scientist, Ed Hawkins -- and colleagues. Ed is not much involved in fights over the mostly trivial matters which dominate much of the popular debate, but he has a big interest into looking into tricky questions in active climate research, and in analysis and substantive contributions. In his own words: the blog is "" That is: the blog is more about open questions than about rehashing the basics.

Anyhoo... his latest blog post is Expectations for 2016 global temperatures. It repeats some of what I've been saying above, but gets a little deeper into the issues with analysis of ENSO impacts. It includes some graphs similar to those I posted myself -- but including also the 1982-83 El Nino. It uses HadCRUT4.4 rather than GISTEMP as the data. (Ed actually works for the Met Office in the UK which produces the HadCRUT temperature set.) There are significant differences in the patterns of monthly data, but the overall pattern of annual anomalies is very similar. (... and that could be a rather subtle topic for another thread.)

Ed also links to the official Met Office 2016 global mean temperature forecast -- another highly credible source suggesting 2016 has a good prospect of being hotter even than 2015. It opens as follows:This came out in Dec 2015. The 2015 result for the Met Office has since been released, and was 0.75.

[shunyadragon]

Back to some real science, and climb out of the moldy sewage of catacombs of superstitious blind flat earthers with ink stained fingers.



Record winter Northeasters (actually winter tropical storms which sometimes reach hurricane strength) are periodically associated with strong El Ninos.

[shunyadragon]

The world has also been very very warm for January 2016



See website for graphs and maps.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/02/...16-0-54-deg-c/

[TheLurch]

NASA's just released the surface temperatures for January. Highest divergence from the average yet, and marks the fourth month in a row that the divergence from their baseline (1951-1980) was over a degree C.

[shunyadragon]

This data is preliminary, but . . . All records were broken big time for February 2016 temperatures worldwide. It appears that it is the first time in history that the deviation from normal was more than 2 degrees.

[Jorge]

My guesstimate:

2016 will be even hotter than 2015. That's a big call; because 2015 was a huge spike in temperatures; generally we'd expect things to cool down a bit after a big spike. I do expect a cool down; but I think it may well be in 2017 rather than 2016. El Nino generally seems to have a slightly delayed effect on global temperatures; which means that even as the current El Nino fades, its effects should continue well into 2016... which means 2016 is very likely to be another hot year (mean global anomaly).

Hurricanes: a harder call. El Nino is generally associated with more pacific hurricanes and less atlantic hurricanes: and so it was in 2015. But 2016... I dunno. Regressing back towards the mean is usually a good betting tactic; the problem is that the mean is shifting under our feet. Under duress; I'd expect 2016 to see above average hurricane activity in the Pacific (though maybe not quite as much as 2015) and a generally unexceptional year in the Atlantic.

No offense, but I had to snicker a little at your concluding "prediction": 'Drought may still be a problem in some regions". That's a safe bet for just about any year. :-) For my part on drought... I dunno.

"Weathermen" - the only profession where you actually get paid for being wrong 95% of the time.

On other news, from day one I've said that "Global Warming" (now "Climate Change") was nothing but a front for a more sinister agenda. Now, just as for Evolution, the criminals behind the agenda are seeking to employ the powers of the State to literally force people to accept that agenda or pay heavy penalties. Here's a clip:



Full article here: http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...hange-deniers/

Yup, you will either submit to the establishment's edicts or it's off to the gallows with you!

If that doesn't bring Evolution and EXPELLED! to mind then nothing will.

My recommendation is to imprison Loretta Lynch - better yet, to lynch Lynch! - for abuse of powers. Follow that with the same for Clinton, Clinton, Obama, Holder, Bush, Bush, Cheney, Dimon, Blankfein, Bernanke, Greenspan, Yellen, Fisher ... and a very long list of others.
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Carry on, children ... do carry on.

Jorge

[Roy]

Go here Jorge

[TheLurch]

I love how "People have complained, and we've forwarded the complaints to the FBI" suddenly becomes "it's off to the gallows with you!"

It must be interesting to lead a life that's completely unconstrained by reality.

[Jorge]

I love how "People have complained, and we've forwarded the complaints to the FBI" suddenly becomes "it's off to the gallows with you!"

It must be interesting to lead a life that's completely unconstrained by reality.

Let no one say that figurative language escapes The Lurch. Yeah ... right.
Note also how, like a cheap magician, he tries to distract from the primary issue.
Oh well, he's had plenty of practice in his defense of alternate realities.

Jorge

[TheLurch]

Let no one say that figurative language escapes The Lurch. Yeah ... right.
Note also how, like a cheap magician, he tries to distract from the primary issue.
Oh well, he's had plenty of practice in his defense of alternate realities.

The Justice Department has received complaints. What exactly is it supposed to do? Is the "primary issue" you're upset with that someone in the government is actually doing their job as they're supposed to?

And let's not even get started about your claim that there's some "sinister agenda" behind something Arrhenius told us about a century ago.

[klaus54]

Just curious -- is someone proposing that AGW denial be considered a crime???

[Jorge]

Just curious -- is someone proposing that AGW denial be considered a crime???

Does it need to be spelled out for you? Yes, that is precisely what is going on
right now as we speak. I discovered more news on it just yesterday.

Why is this happening? It's because the true reason behind AGW is a Totalitarian
Collectivist agenda. Helping the environment or the 'little man' is merely their
cover story for the witless sheeple. It's connected with a push for a cashless
economic system. This isn't the place for a defense of that - nor would I even
attempt such a thing with this group - just keep your eyes and ears open.
You will be hearing increasingly more on these subjects. Heaven help us
should these monstrous criminals ever succeed in achieving their goals.

Jorge

[Jorge]

The Justice Department has received complaints. What exactly is it supposed to do? Is the "primary issue" you're upset with that someone in the government is actually doing their job as they're supposed to?

And let's not even get started about your claim that there's some "sinister agenda" behind something Arrhenius told us about a century ago.

See my previous post # 28.
Yes, sadly YOU are one of the "witless sheeple" that I alluded to.

Jorge

[oxmixmudd]

See my previous post # 28.
Yes, sadly YOU are one of the "witless sheeple" that I alluded to.

Jorge

jorge is wrong in his 'world domination conspiracy fears.

But he is right in that some are trying to find ways to use RICO laws in the US (and other approaches in other countries) to to quiet dissent over global warming.

This is a VERY bad idea.

You just can't legislate a scientific position, and you just can't silence contrary voices.

(1) the 1st amendment gives all of us the right to voice our disagreement with any political policy or idea.
(2) the instant you legislate which ideas are scientifically correct and which ones are not, science dies. From that moment forward, ALL science is suspect.
(3) if a scientific idea needs prosecution of dissent by the law to gain acceptance, it is not very good science to start with.

I hope most of you already understand these things. And I hope most of us will be opposed to those that want to try to force the silence of those that doubt AGW.

The only possible exception would be a conspiracy to knowingly lie and deceive the ignorant. PROVING that is the case would be exceptionally difficult, but that is no excuse for trying to bypass first amendment rights and the free expression of ideas to accomplish the goal of widespread UNDERSTANDING of the science that leads to the conclusion AGW is a reality.


Jim