Using observed data in science? What kind of witchcraft is this?
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Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to �natural variability�
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Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to �natural variability�
Using observed data in science? What kind of witchcraft is this?"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ― C.S. Lewis, God in the Dock: Essays on Theology (Making of Modern Theology) -
Originally posted by Jesse View PostThe research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.
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Using observed data in science? What kind of witchcraft is this?
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Originally posted by Paprika View PostWhat is lacking, of course, is to make skillful predictions to test the model against future data."Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ― C.S. Lewis, God in the Dock: Essays on Theology (Making of Modern Theology)
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Originally posted by Jesse View Post"Skillfull predictions" seem...oxymoronic to me in this instance.
Which means, of course, that making a very wide range of claims is a great way to prevent one's model from being falsified since one has covered the likely range of possibilities.
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Originally posted by Jesse View PostUsing observed data in science? What kind of witchcraft is this?
*Leonhard puts on his sleuth fedora and trenchcoat and goes to investigate*
Aha, this has already been posted up in Civics, only the Daily Mail (being a tabloid) make fairly ridiculous claims compared to the news article that seer posted.
This has nothing to do about using data, this has something to do about comparing various simulations against reconstructed temperature profiles, in order to see whether the current rise and "flatlining" were inconsistent with some of the models from the IPCC.
We already know that its utterly inconsistent with no rise at all, and this is not contested. The IPCC had several models of how the temperature might rise, based on various unknowns, such as industry developments, and feedback from the environment such a melting tundra releasing huge amounts of methane. The worst model predicts about 9F rise by the end of this century, the weakest (which assumes China and India significantly reduces their CO2 output by 2050) predicts about 2.7F (numbers are from memory).
Why the need to compare these models against the average temperature record?
The average temperature goes up and down goes like the stock market, with a trend. There are some random fluctuations. It comes mainly from the fact that we're not capable of telling the temperature of every single mile of air in the world, but only various selected spots who are susceptible to the randomness of local weather. The total average is also susceptible dynamics between the atmosphere and the ocean (the temperature of which we have fairly bad grasp of. In some circumstances, a hot atmosphere will heat up the ocean from the bottom up, rather than the top down!). It averages out, but there's still some noise left. So you have to look at trends over three decades, which is what they did.
And they found that the data might be inconsistent with the worst of the models. Which is good, because that one was awful. They said it was perfectly consistent with the mid-range models, and in their report they even clearly stated that this would not constitute evidence that warming had somehow stopped.Last edited by Leonhard; 04-25-2015, 02:26 AM.
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Originally posted by LeonhardAha, this has already been posted up in Civics, only the Daily Mail (being a tabloid) make fairly ridiculous claims compared to the news article that seer posted."Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ― C.S. Lewis, God in the Dock: Essays on Theology (Making of Modern Theology)
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Originally posted by Jesse View PostUsing observed data in science? What kind of witchcraft is this?
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Originally posted by Jesse View PostGlobal warming hasn't happened as fast as expected, according to a new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records.
Using observed data in science? What kind of witchcraft is this?
I would review this in more detail and comment more later.Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2015, 03:49 PM.
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