What Could Falsify Man Made Global Warming Theory?

[Cow Poke]

Al Gore also accepts gravity.

OK, it's SETTLED SCIENCE. Gravity exists. We have managed to convince an overwhelming percentage of the population, not just of the US, but of the WORLD! Even the Religious community doesn't argue against it.

So, let's raise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to get more data, to study it, to do research.... so we can ..... END IT? MITIGATE IT? REVERSE IT? SLOW IT DOWN?

Or do we accept that it's a fact of life, AND science, and we need to focus on how to live with it more safely and comfortably?

[rogue06]

OK, it's SETTLED SCIENCE.

There is no gravity, the earth just sucks. I support Intelligent Falling and may be open to a bit of Micro-gravity though none of that Newtonistic Macro-gravity.

[Cow Poke]

There is no gravity, the earth just sucks. I support Intelligent Falling and may be open to a bit of Micro-gravity though none of that Newtonistic Macro-gravity.

OK, so we have convinced MOST of the world, but there are still some deniers. Lord knows it would have to be my brother!

[TheLurch]

WAY more simple than that..... a VERY simple question.... How much money would it take to do WHAT? Nobody seems to know WHAT, or HOW MUCH. Since it's ALREADY "settled science", what more DATA do we need? Assuming it's SETTLED SCIENCE, what's the game plan?

Sorry, i thought it was important to get on the same page regarding whether the researchers could have concocted this out of some financial interest.

There have been some studies of the relative costs of mitigation vs. adaptation. The most famous is probably the Stern Report (After it's author, not because it's very serious. Although it is.).
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.g...view_index.htm

The World Bank also produced one:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pre...end-of-century

There are probably others, but my focus has been on the science, so i'd have to look into that. And i'm about 15 minutes away from needing to go meet with my boss, so if you want to see more, it'll have to wait until tomorrow.

[HMS_Beagle]

WAY more simple than that..... a VERY simple question.... How much money would it take to do WHAT? Nobody seems to know WHAT, or HOW MUCH. Since it's ALREADY "settled science", what more DATA do we need? Assuming it's SETTLED SCIENCE, what's the game plan?

The problem and its root cause is settled science, not the solution. Do you really not understand that?

[Jorge]

Over the years I have heard droughts, extreme cold, extreme heat, heavy snow fall, no snow fall, heavy rain fall, active hurricane season, calm hurricane season, etc... all blamed on man made global warming. Are there any weather conditions that could falsify this theory?

The weather is an extremely - extremely! - complex phenomena. It is so complex that even with supercomputers cranking away for years they STILL haven't been able to model it correctly. Why? For several reasons - one being multilevel nested feedback loops, another being that global weather is a highly dynamic system and another being the 'Butterfly Effect' of Chaos Theory.

That said, promoters of "global-warming-is-caused-by-humans" (Al Gore and his followers) will NEVER be 'convinced' of the contrary in the same way as promoters of Evolution Theory will never be convinced of its flaws. Why? Primarily for these four reasons: (1) they selectively accept any data that even appears to support their position; (2) They interpret all observations so as to support their position; (3) They discard/dismiss/ignore any data or observations that doesn't support their position and, last but not least; (4) there is an extremely powerful political, economic and ideological agenda behind "global warning" (just as there is for Evolution).

In short, TRUE science takes a back seat to these 4 agenda-driven factors and that is why no weather condition can falsify this theory.

That answers your question, seer.

Jorge

[Cow Poke]

The problem and its root cause is settled science, not the solution. Do you really not understand that?

I understand that ALL TOO WELL! That's my whole point. You guys don't have a CLUE how much money it would take, or if it would even solve anything..... and I trust "government" to solve the problem like I trust them to solve HEALTHCARE.

[HMS_Beagle]

It is a FACT that the sun is hot and people get sunburns. Let's come up with a program to dial down the sun a little so it's not so hot. In fact, let's compile data and go on speaking tours and write books, and make laws and hyperventilate. Will that accomplish ANYTHING?

OR, we could understand that the sun is hot, and I need to wear sunblock when outside, and make adjustments accordingly.

Talk about dumb analogies...

We didn't make the sun hot with our actions. We made the planet hot (hotter anyway) with our actions.

California the largest agricultural producer in the U.S. is still in its worst drought since record keeping began in 1895. Crop losses are expected to top 5 billion dollars. For a lot of the country the cost for fresh veggies this summer are going to skyrocket. Meanwhile the additional moisture in the atmosphere due to the warmer planet is pummeling the Midwest and East with unprecedented snowfalls. The climate shift has also brought large masses of freezing arctic air down our way. Hurricane season is right around the bend with bigger and nastier storms predicted for the Atlantic and bigger typhoons in the Pacific.

What adaptations do you suggest we make that are cheap and easy to offset this "sunburn"?

[HMS_Beagle]

I understand that ALL TOO WELL! That's my whole point. You guys don't have a CLUE how much money it would take, or if it would even solve anything..... and I trust "government" to solve the problem like I trust them to solve HEALTHCARE.

That still doesn't change the fact that there is a real problem and that we brought it on ourselves.

Doing nothing and leaving a much worse world for our kids and their kids is certainly an option but it's one most people don't want.

[Cow Poke]

Talk about dumb analogies...

I thought I'd play your game.

We didn't make the sun hot with our actions. We made the planet hot (hotter anyway) with our actions.

I disagree. But what do I know -- it's "settled".

California the largest agricultural producer in the U.S. is still in its worst drought since record keeping began in 1895.

Yeah, things change. Here ya go with the anecdotal stuff you don't like us using.

Crop losses are expected to top 5 billion dollars. For a lot of the country the cost for fresh veggies this summer are going to skyrocket. Meanwhile the additional moisture in the atmosphere due to the warmer planet is pummeling the Midwest and East with unprecedented snowfalls. The climate shift has also brought large masses of freezing arctic air down our way. Hurricane season is right around the bend with bigger and nastier storms predicted for the Atlantic and bigger typhoons in the Pacific.

Didn't we hear "most active hurricane season on record is coming" LAST year?

What adaptations do you suggest we make that are cheap and easy to offset this "sunburn"?

I'm not the one running around screaming the sky is falling. I think we should make every reasonable attempt to be good stewards of the earth, but I thought that LONG before the alarm bells were going off.

[Cow Poke]

That still doesn't change the fact that there is a real problem and that we brought it on ourselves.

Did we cause, for example, volcanoes?

Doing nothing

False dichotomy. Just because I don't see any reason to spend BILLIONS of dollars in a knee-jerk reaction to fix a problem without a propose solution doesn't mean I believe we "do nothing".

and leaving a much worse world for our kids and their kids is certainly an option but it's one most people don't want.

Yeah, us mean iggernent deniers want people to have dirty air and polluted water and poison crops and..... I just want SOMEBODY to tell me WHAT they intend to do, HOW MUCH it's going to cost, and how much impact it can have.... and IF a plan comes up, it will be implemented just like Obamacare --- with incredible ineptitude and at horrific cost.

[HMS_Beagle]

I'm not the one running around screaming the sky is falling. I think we should make every reasonable attempt to be good stewards of the earth, but I thought that LONG before the alarm bells were going off.

Yet now when we have conclusive scientific evidence there is a real problem you want to ignore the warning and shoot the messenger.

You seem to be directly contradicting yourself.

[Cow Poke]

Hurricane season is right around the bend with bigger and nastier storms predicted for the Atlantic and bigger typhoons in the Pacific.

From NPR

[HMS_Beagle]

Did we cause, for example, volcanoes?

Volcanoes didn't cause the huge rise in atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the last 100 years. Humans did.

False dichotomy. Just because I don't see any reason to spend BILLIONS of dollars in a knee-jerk reaction to fix a problem without a propose solution doesn't mean I believe we "do nothing".

What do you suggest then? Just ignore the problem and it will go away?

Yeah, us mean iggernent deniers want people to have dirty air and polluted water and poison crops and..... I just want SOMEBODY to tell me WHAT they intend to do, HOW MUCH it's going to cost, and how much impact it can have.... and IF a plan comes up, it will be implemented just like Obamacare --- with incredible ineptitude and at horrific cost.

For the umpeenth time - the solution is not clear, the cost / pain trade may be high but that has no bearing on the fact that the phenomenon of AGW is real.

[Cow Poke]

Yet now when we have conclusive scientific evidence there is a real problem you want to ignore the warning and shoot the messenger.

For the umpteenzillionth time... I never SAID that... I just said... tell me what you plan on doing about it... how much will it cost, who will oversee the "fix".... what are the expected results...

You seem to be directly contradicting yourself.

you wish.


(And just so you know, given the fact that we lack tone of voice and facial expression and all that... I'm not the least bit worked up about this... just a bit dismissive of the hype)