State of the Union - Climate change?

[HMS_Beagle]

Is this not a debate thread? A poster has cited data to support his point of view, and I would like to see what is missing from what he presented.

Nothing was missing from what I presented. It was an accurate summary graph from a reputable scientific source. I provided a link to that source as well as the information on the data sets used.

If I research the original data sets and find the published error ranges you'll demand to see the calibration data on the measurement instruments.

If I manage to find the calibration data you'll demand to see the medical records of the Cal Lab technicians to show they weren't on medication.

Go play your childish games elsewhere.

[seer]

Then you misunderstood. I didn't blame the typhoon on climate change. The point was that the extra moisture content of the atmosphere caused by AGW is going to lead to bigger and more powerful typhoons which do a great deal more damage like the Category 5 Guam storm did.

Yes, so you blamed it on climate change.

[HMS_Beagle]

Yes, so you blamed it on climate change.

You are stating a falsehood.

[Cow Poke]

You are stating a falsehood.

Well, didn't you indicate a prediction for an increase of the number of hurricanes for 2014 as a result of AGW?

My apologies if that wasn't you.

[HMS_Beagle]

Well, didn't you indicate a prediction for an increase of the number of hurricanes for 2014 as a result of AGW?

That wasn't what seer claimed I said.

[Cow Poke]

That wasn't what seer claimed I said.

OK, so while you and he figure that out, wasn't 2013 ALSO predicted to be a very active hurricane season in 2012, yet 2013 was one of the QUIETEST?

[Cow Poke]

Then you misunderstood. I didn't blame the typhoon on climate change. The point was that the extra moisture content of the atmosphere caused by AGW is going to lead to bigger and more powerful typhoons which do a great deal more damage like the Category 5 Guam storm did.

OK, just for grins, mind unpacking this for us?

It's the "extra moisture content in the air" CAUSED by AGW..... how's that different than the more intense typhoons being caused by AGW? Seems the only difference is semantics.

[HMS_Beagle]

OK, so while you and he figure that out, wasn't 2013 ALSO predicted to be a very active hurricane season in 2012, yet 2013 was one of the QUIETEST?

He's a good article explaining why the predictions were made and what the actual results were



A huge unexpected pocket of warn dry air formed in the Atlantic between S. America and Africa for reasons that are not clear. This unexpected curve ball drove the total number and power of the 2013 hurricanes down.

500rh1.jpg

[HMS_Beagle]

OK, just for grins, mind unpacking this for us?

It's the "extra moisture content in the air" CAUSED by AGW..... how's that different than the more intense typhoons being caused by AGW? Seems the only difference is semantics.

Seer said I claimed the Guam typhoon was caused by AGW. He misunderstood my point that the storm was much larger than a usual typhoon due to the extra moisture from AGW. The two ideas aren't the same.

[Cow Poke]

Seer said I claimed the Guam typhoon was caused by AGW. He misunderstood my point that the storm was much larger than a usual typhoon due to the extra moisture from AGW. The two ideas aren't the same.

Oh, so you're saying that it was "intensified" by AGW, not caused by it?

[Cow Poke]

A huge unexpected pocket of warn dry air formed in the Atlantic between S. America and Africa for reasons that are not clear.

"for reasons that are not clear" is interesting. It's kinda why I don't trust the weather-guessers -- if something they predict doesn't happen, there's always a good excuse.

This unexpected curve ball drove the total number and power of the 2013 hurricanes down.

Well, that would be an ASSUMPTION based on the unexpected pocket of warm dry air.....

[phank]

"for reasons that are not clear" is interesting. It's kinda why I don't trust the weather-guessers -- if something they predict doesn't happen, there's always a good excuse.

Modest ignorance is better than boastful knowledge. If something isn't known, then it's not known. What do you want him to say?

Well, that would be an ASSUMPTION based on the unexpected pocket of warm dry air.....

Not exactly. Hurricane formation models are pretty good. So a hurricane is statistically highly probable given the right set of starting conditions. Make a big change to one of the important conditions, and hurricanes don't start. But I don't see anyone claiming the AGW is the cause of the dry pocket. Today the state of the art in these areas can do no better than to predict that atypical conditions around the world will occur more often. However, the range of "typical" conditions is quite wide. Are the distributions (shape of the curves of incidence) changing? I don't know.

[seer]

You are stating a falsehood.

You are getting as slippery as Shuny, HMS. Here is what you originally said:

Today because of changing climate we have severe drought destroying crops in many parts of the world, the largest typhoon ever recorded slamming Guam, low lying island countries like the Maldives losing their land due to sea level rise.

If that is not blaming the "largest typhoon ever" on climate change, then I don't know what your point is. And the worse part is that you have no evidence that this is the case.

[Truthseeker]

the ocean oscillation cycle is now in a multi-year cooling phase.

I have to make an at-least partial correction. El Nino, the ocean warming between Indonesia and Peru, is now back.

[HMS_Beagle]

If that is not blaming the "largest typhoon ever" on climate change, then I don't know what your point is.

You don't know what my point is because your reading comprehension sucks and you only see what you want to see. The climate change part referred to the largest on record typhoon, not that a typhoon occurred. Even after I explained your error to you you still refuse to get it.