I looked more closely at the reports of possible 'herd immunity' in California, and found them inconclusive. I consider it a greater possibility in the Orient, but at present awaiting further extensive testing and research. Stanford University is proposing extensive testing in California to determine the extent of COVAG 19 virus infection.
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Modeling coronavirus spread, or why are there different numbers of expected deaths?
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By the way the fatality rate from country to country and region to region in the West is more correlated to the elderly age percentage and vulnerability of the population then any difference in the efforts of the individual countries implemented to reduce impact of the COVAG-19 pandemic. Northern Italy has the highest average age than most countries. at 79.9 See: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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There are distinct differences in the percentage of the population in different countries and regions that have been infected by COVID 19: (1) the traffic pattern of humanity shows how the spread hit certain ares first, such as large cities where particularly travel from the Orient was dominant. (2) The percentage of the elderly and vulnerable population. Northern Italy has the probably the highest percentage of elderly and vulnerable in the world, and it had the highest percentage of cases and fatalities. (3) The health of the elderly population, with the Orient has the healthiest elderly population.
There is the 'other' more controversial cause of the percentage of the population infected by the COVID 19 Virus, and that is the long term regional 'herd immunity' and co-evolution of the host population and the virus in the endemic source region or country of origin. I posted a research article before that documented the coevolution immunity in regional population. These factors do possible explain some of the differences in the percentage of infection rates in different regions and countries of th world.
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https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/covi...e-japan-model/
Japan has a large elderly population---it is practicing limited (Short)partial lockdowns but otherwise using a cluster-based approach---containing the infected clusters.
the approach may be workable in Japan because people have been regularly using masks ---the country has a regular flu season and close exposure to China so gets hit with respiratory illnesses coming out of China....
If Japan is any indication of the future---then masks and social distancing are here to stay from here on out....but lockdowns are not workable longterm solutions to future epidemics/pandemics....
pneumonia from flu or other respiratory illness such as Sars etc can be caused by the cytokine storm---an over-reaction of our immune system to the virus.
https://www.newscientist.com/term/cytokine-storm/
Indonesian citizens are taking matters into their own hands and trying to find ways to survive....
https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/indo...ld-is-missing/
Korea, Taiwan etc are relying on tracing and containing measures to limit spread to manageable levels.
If spread is not "managed" it can overwhelm healthcare systems.
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More daily data is making the progress of the CVOD 19 pandemic clearer. The USA is over the hump of the peak in late April, and in gradual recovery like China did and recovered, and France and other European countries. Russia's bumpy peak will be in a week or so. The paths of the viruses are closely related to when each region or country was first infected, and they are approaching the peak and going over in the order they were infected.
See this cite for the latest data: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...HN+FRA+DEU+KOR.Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-29-2020, 07:04 PM.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostI realize there are only estimates without firm figures in the number of cases, and particularly in China the deliberate underreporting under reporting of fatalities and cases.
Nonetheless my one BIG concern now is the outrageous fear based figures put out by Fauci concerning fatality estimates of 100,000 to as much as 240,000.Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.
MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.
seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...
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Originally posted by Roy View PostNot fear based after all.
To add: I did not know Trump refused to accelerate the manufacture of PPE, and thought Fauci was more in control of the government efforts.Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-17-2020, 07:47 PM.
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