Oprah for Prez?

[Starlight]

Another tv celebrity who runs their own company? No thanks.

Will a real politician please stand up?

The people this prediction market currently rates as having a >=5% probability to be the 2020 democratic nominee are:
1. Senator Bernie Sanders
2. Senator Kamala Harris
3. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
4. Ex-VP ex-Senator Joe Biden
5. Senator Elizabeth Warren
6. Senator Cory Booker
7. Senator Amy Klobuchar
8. Governor Andrew Cuomo

Even with talk of billionaire candidates running like Zuckerberg, Oprah etc, no non-politician is yet being rated at 5% by those people willing to put their money where their mouth is. 100% of the political commentators I follow have responded "OMG no!" to a suggestion of Oprah running.

[Starlight]

She has been building goodwill for over thirty years, but honestly she has no clue economically. Trump was in business for years.

Um, the dude went bankrupt 6 times, kept having to get bailed out by his rich father, got blacklisted by the US banks, and finally survived only by money laundering for the Russian mobs through his real estate deals. If you think Dementia Trump has a clue about economics you're kidding yourself.

[Terraceth]

The people this prediction market currently rates as having a >=5% probability to be the 2020 democratic nominee are:
1. Senator Bernie Sanders
2. Senator Kamala Harris
3. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
4. Ex-VP ex-Senator Joe Biden
5. Senator Elizabeth Warren
6. Senator Cory Booker
7. Senator Amy Klobuchar
8. Governor Andrew Cuomo

Even with talk of billionaire candidates running like Zuckerberg, Oprah etc, no non-politician is yet being rated at 5% by those people willing to put their money where their mouth is. 100% of the political commentators I follow have responded "OMG no!" to a suggestion of Oprah running.

Go back 4 years and I'm sure you'd find the same thing to be true for Trump being the Republican nominee.

[KingsGambit]

This is about as good of an idea as ejection seats for helicopters.

[EvoUK]

Go back 4 years and I'm sure you'd find the same thing to be true for Trump being the Republican nominee.

[demi-conservative]

100% of the political commentators I follow have responded "OMG no!" to a suggestion of Oprah running.

Reddit does not approve, guacamole gives sigh of relieve!!

[rogue06]

Obama was a real politician...

But still a Washington outsider with very little experience.

[Mountain Man]

I know next to Trump, Oprah looks just incredible...

[Mountain Man]

But still a Washington outsider with very little experience.

Nah, I never did buy Obama's claims of being an "outsider". He was neck-deep in the swamp when he ran for president.

[Starlight]

I know next to Trump, Oprah looks just incredible

Unlike him, she is actually a billionaire, didn't inherit her money, doesn't have a history of money laundering for Russian mobsters, has some business competence, can finish expressing a coherent thought without getting sidetracked, can speak at above a 4th grade level, can read without difficulty, doesn't have dementia, doesn't do crazy twitter rants, doesn't take everything personally, etc.

But I judge politicians primarily on their policies, and she's never really had any (apart from Iraq-war-mongering, and recently #MeTooing), so that completely disqualifies her from leadership.

One takeaway from the Fire and Fury book is that having someone as president who's new to politics and disinterested in politics and lacks any kind of political agenda is a problem, because the president is often required to make decisions (e.g. whether to increase/decrease deployments in Afghanistan) and sometimes time-sensitive ones (e.g. what to do in response to NK launching a missile over Japan, or in response to Syria using chemical weapons).

[EvoUK]

Unlike him, she is actually a billionaire, didn't inherit her money, doesn't have a history of money laundering for Russian mobsters, has some business competence, can finish expressing a coherent thought without getting sidetracked, can speak at above a 4th grade level, can read without difficulty, doesn't have dementia, doesn't do crazy twitter rants, doesn't take everything personally, etc.

But I judge politicians primarily on their policies, and she's never really had any (apart from Iraq-war-mongering, and recently #MeTooing), so that completely disqualifies her from leadership.

One takeaway from the Fire and Fury book is that having someone as president who's new to politics and disinterested in politics and lacks any kind of political agenda is a problem, because the president is often required to make decisions (e.g. whether to increase/decrease deployments in Afghanistan) and sometimes time-sensitive ones (e.g. what to do in response to NK launching a missile over Japan, or in response to Syria using chemical weapons).

[lilpixieofterror]

Unlike him, she is actually a billionaire, didn't inherit her money, doesn't have a history of money laundering for Russian mobsters, has some business competence, can finish expressing a coherent thought without getting sidetracked, can speak at above a 4th grade level, can read without difficulty, doesn't have dementia, doesn't do crazy twitter rants, doesn't take everything personally, etc.

But I judge politicians primarily on their policies, and she's never really had any (apart from Iraq-war-mongering, and recently #MeTooing), so that completely disqualifies her from leadership.

One takeaway from the Fire and Fury book is that having someone as president who's new to politics and disinterested in politics and lacks any kind of political agenda is a problem, because the president is often required to make decisions (e.g. whether to increase/decrease deployments in Afghanistan) and sometimes time-sensitive ones (e.g. what to do in response to NK launching a missile over Japan, or in response to Syria using chemical weapons).

[Starlight]

I think overall people will tend towards politicians who are outside the status quo, like Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn types. I hope they've seen the danger of going into the non-political barrel for candidates, but I think there's a lot of anti-establishment anger out there.

Hmm. I think given the recent revelations of the speed of Trump's mental deterioration I judge it unlikely he'll last out 2018 before having to leave because of his mental health.

Furthermore, given the pace of Mueller's work, it looks like that investigation will be wrapped up soon, and what I'm expecting to see from that is a finding of serious financial crimes by both Kushner and Trump, combined with attempted obstruction of justice by both Kushner and Trump. When that happens there will be a lot of pressure for Trump to resign for obstruction of justice like Nixon did, even from Republican politicians. I don't expect Trump to last out 2018 for this reason. Of course, Trump being Trump, he might always simply refuse to step down, leaving the Republican senate in the really awkward position of either having to impeach their own president or put up with a known criminal in office, either of which the Democrats would love. (I guess the ideal scenario for the Dems would be that Trump holds on by his fingernails until 2020 and then tries to run for reelection!) Although of course it's always possible Mueller could separate out the Russia stuff and give a Comey-like speech of "Trump Jr was naughty naughty to meet with Russians and Trump Snr was naughty naughty to suggest in a speech for the Russians to release Hillary's emails, but we find that Russian collusion doesn't meet prosecutable standards. The end." And the investigations into financial crimes would either continue in the background to reappear 6 months or a year down the track when the prosecutors were ready to indict, or be brushed under the rug forever of 'politically inconvenient / politically difficult to pursue because the guy is president'.

[Mountain Man]

And you think Oprah is not a celebrity who knows what she's talking about?



You kids in the UK must lead a very sheltered life.

[EvoUK]

I think overall people will tend towards politicians who are outside the status quo, like Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn types. I hope they've seen the danger of going into the non-political barrel for candidates, but I think there's a lot of anti-establishment anger out there.

Hmm. I think given the recent revelations of the speed of Trump's mental deterioration I judge it unlikely he'll last out 2018 before having to leave because of his mental health.

Furthermore, given the pace of Mueller's work, it looks like that investigation will be wrapped up soon, and what I'm expecting to see from that is a finding of serious financial crimes by both Kushner and Trump, combined with attempted obstruction of justice by both Kushner and Trump. When that happens there will be a lot of pressure for Trump to resign for obstruction of justice like Nixon did, even from Republican politicians. I don't expect Trump to last out 2018 for this reason. Of course, Trump being Trump, he might always simply refuse to step down, leaving the Republican senate in the really awkward position of either having to impeach their own president or put up with a known criminal in office, either of which the Democrats would love. (I guess the ideal scenario for the Dems would be that Trump holds on by his fingernails until 2020 and then tries to run for reelection!) Although of course it's always possible Mueller could separate out the Russia stuff and give a Comey-like speech of "Trump Jr was naughty naughty to meet with Russians and Trump Snr was naughty naughty to suggest in a speech for the Russians to release Hillary's emails, but we find that Russian collusion doesn't meet prosecutable standards. The end." And the investigations into financial crimes would either continue in the background to reappear 6 months or a year down the track when the prosecutors were ready to indict, or be brushed under the rug forever of 'politically inconvenient / politically difficult to pursue because the guy is president'.