Originally posted by Jorge
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(1) Does the hypothesis that he kinds of tissue and even molecules Schweitzer discovered in these fossils can't be preserved for the amount of time indicated by their age have greater or lesser support than the hypothesis that the radiometric 'clocks' used to (directly or indirectly) date the layers in which the fossils were found are accurate and reliable?
(2a) Is it possible the fossil itself is of a different age than the sedimentary layers in which it was found?
(2b) Is the preserved 'soft tissue' NOT what it appears to be
Almost no one would claim that the fossils are of a different age than the sediment in which they were deposited (2a).
As to (2b), there have been several postulates as to what these preserved elements that look like preserved soft tissue might be. But in the end, all of those competing hypothesis have been shown not to be the case. Further, additional work has shown that organics preserved in these bones match most closely those found in the Ostrich, consilient with the hypothesis (theory at this point) that the birds evolved from the dinosaurs.
Without a plausible means for questions (2) to present an alternative, question (1) forces us to decide between two hypothesis. Either the dating mechanisms are in some way flawed, or this kind of tissue can be preserved as found for much, much longer than originally thought.
The objective scientist considers both options, not just one or the other. Jorge can only consider one possible option. He is not an objective scientist. His accusation is that neither are the majority of the scientists that come to a conclusion different from his own. He says they have not even looked at the possibility the bones are not as old as thought.
But that is not true. The problem, however, is that to those that understand the dating methods and the research that has gone into them, and the sheer number of differing data points that all point to the same basic conclusion in terms of the ages of the layers where the bones were found, there is a clear win relative to the two alternatives. It is well known that given a proper environment, there is no reason these materials can't survive virtually indefinately. The problem is that it was thought (re assumed) conditions which would allow this kind preservation would not occur naturally.
And so it boils down to one hypothesis based on reams of direct data of disparate origin and type* which point to 65 million or more years (depending on the fossil being investigated), and another hypothesis based on what is in essence known to be a 'best guess'.
And for most without an axe to grind or point to prove, that means the most likely situation is that these kinds of small tissue fragments can be preserved naturally in some environments for many millions of years.
Jorge believes that huge amounts of time not spent reevaluating this conclusion implies that the mainstream scientists are horribly biased against his conclusion. But the reality is that his conclusion is rejected quickly in large part simply because of the overwhelming disparity between the solidity of the support for each possibility. There just isn't any realistic way these dates could be wrong enough to allow the tissues to be only as old as was previously believed to be their survival time. Hence the focus on validating the tissues are what they seem to be and searching for ways to explain the preservation.
Jim
*: radiometric decay rates have never been demonstrated to change any significant amount in any environment consistent with the history of the Earth. Sedimentary layers themselves take time to deposit and the longevity of the physical processes required to deposit them are in solid agreement with the radiometric dates given. multiple types of radiometric clocks(different isotopes and decay rates), when available, tend to give similar if not identical ages. These results are planet and solar system wide. The constancy of decay rates has been shown even across astronomical distance as observed in the spectra from supernova 1987a. An ancillary observation that helps explain the observed constancy of decay rates is that the decay rates themselves are tied to fundamental constants of the universe itself such as the speed of light and fine structure constant. Properties that if changed would have many observable consequences, consequences that have been and are routinely investigated. To date, no changes in these related constants have been observed to any significant degree over the observable age of the universe.
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