Three Curtains

[rstrats]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and of course there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

[Sparko]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and of course there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

Change to curtain 2.

[rstrats]

Anyone disagree with Sparko?

[Sparko]

Anyone disagree with Sparko?

I do!

Oh wait. Never mind.

[Teallaura]

Change to Curtain 2. The odds were that you selected wrong initially (1:3) and since you know the right choice remains it is more likely the curtain you didn't choose.














With thanks to Numb3rs - who says you can't learn anything from TV?

[Cow Poke]

It makes no difference.

[rstrats]

Cow Poke,

re: "It makes no difference."

What would you do if after your pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could switch to BOTH curtains 2 and 3?

[Sparko]

[Cow Poke]

Cow Poke,

re: "It makes no difference."

What would you do if after your pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could switch to BOTH curtains 2 and 3?

So, just to make sure I understand....

I have chosen Curtain #1 out of 3 choices, a 33 1/3 probability of being correct...

I then have a 50/50 chance at staying with curtain #1, or taking another 50/50 chance on Curtains #2 and #3?

[Cow Poke]

You're picking on Mickiel again, aren't you?

[Sparko]

So, just to make sure I understand....

I have chosen Curtain #1 out of 3 choices, a 33 1/3 probability of being correct...

I then have a 50/50 chance at staying with curtain #1, or taking another 50/50 chance on Curtains #2 and #3?

No you would have a 1/3 chance of being correct by staying with curtain one, or a 2/3 chance of being correct if you switched to curtains 2 & 3.

[Cow Poke]

No you would have a 1/3 chance of being correct by staying with curtain one, or a 2/3 chance of being correct if you switched to curtains 2 & 3.

No, cause I don't never win nuthin. And don't EVEN get behind me in line at Walmart.

[mossrose]

Put down beans and cross out cake,
Let me see, oh dear me.
What a task to undertake,
Milk plus bread, oh my head!
Add, subtract and multiply,
Till you're overcome;
This is much too hard for me,
I can't do the sum!

[Sparko]

http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/cgi-bin...monty2?0+19305

[rstrats]

mossrose,

re: "Put down beans and cross out cake, Let me see, oh dear me. What a task to undertake, Milk plus bread, oh my head! Add, subtract and multiply, Till you're overcome; This is much too hard for me, I can't do the sum!"


What would you do if after your pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could switch to BOTH curtains 2 and 3?