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Why there will be more civil unrest to come.

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  • #16
    Originally posted by seanD View Post
    I've never once argued it wasn't Biden's fault. It is Biden's fault, but isn't only his fault I've argued.
    It's partly Biden's fault only in the sense that, like every other president and congress, he has tried to avoid the most immediate negative repercussions of the ever increasing debt.

    The time to try to reverse our debt policy is when the economy is doing relatively well, and Biden hasn't had that opportunity, unlike Trump and Bush, and to a lesser extent Obama. But no politician wants to put the brakes on an expanding economy, even though that would be best in the long run. (In the long run, that politician won't be in office.)

    And I've been researching this subject for more than decade, and I can tell you, MSM sources hardly ever publish articles like this about this subject, clearly stating the mechanisms about the federal reserve and its affects on the economy and markets. It's why most folks are completely ignorant and clueless about it all.
    I don't think the federal reserve system is bad in and of itself. In conjunction with a responsible congress and executive, it would be great. The problem is with how politicians have been using the federal reserve to allow them to increase the deficit in order to keep being reelected.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Stoic View Post
      It's partly Biden's fault only in the sense that, like every other president and congress, he has tried to avoid the most immediate negative repercussions of the ever increasing debt.

      The time to try to reverse our debt policy is when the economy is doing relatively well, and Biden hasn't had that opportunity, unlike Trump and Bush, and to a lesser extent Obama. But no politician wants to put the brakes on an expanding economy, even though that would be best in the long run. (In the long run, that politician won't be in office.)


      I don't think the federal reserve system is bad in and of itself. In conjunction with a responsible congress and executive, it would be great. The problem is with how politicians have been using the federal reserve to allow them to increase the deficit in order to keep being reelected.
      I really have no intent of turning this into a political debate thread. Most folks don't understand this complex matter enough for me to bother debating the political aspects of it.

      The federal reserve itself is unconstitutional. Period. The fact that this institution is so secretive and unaccountable just makes it more insidious. And that's beside the culpability factor behind all the economic boom and busts and wealth imbalances its responsible for in American history.
      "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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      • #18
        Why the latest democrat inflation scapegoat narrative -- "corporate greed" -- is wrong (or just an intentional lie).

        Well, we know why it's wrong because I've explained in great detail why prices are rising, which is a system of inflation (money printing). But this article specifically focuses on why corporate greed is not the cause of sudden rising prices. To the contrary, the PPI shows that businesses are likely HOLDING BACK raising prices to offset the inflation negatively affecting their own profit margin...

        (bold emphasis mine)
        No, Inflation Is Not a Product of Corporate Greed

        Seventeen months ago, as the keys to the oval office changed hands, for all of the political animus and theatrics, one thing seemed a given: the US economy would roar back to vitality in historic fashion, a point of optimism in a nation of discord and incertitude. Yet hope would give way to ambivalence, which, in turn, gave way to serious doubt. Today, a pathetic 23 percent of Americans feel economic conditions are even “somewhat good.” The primary reason for such abysmal economic sentiment? Inflation.

        As consumer prices have accelerated out of control over the past year, a new political narrative on inflation has emerged, one that alleges corporate impropriety as the primary catalyst. The motive for such a messaging shift from select members of the political apparatus is clear: a need to shirk accountability for evidently inflation-inducing policies. Unfortunately, the corporate greed narrative has apparently paid dividends to its progenitors, garnering increasing acceptance among the body politic at large. Indeed, according to one poll from Data For Progress, a majority of likely voters now believe price-gouging is a major contributor to heightened inflation. However, that inflation is brought about by corporate greed is a sophistic political lie in every respect.

        Yes, corporations are greedy. People are greedy. It turns out that greed is a natural characteristic of the human condition. It always has been. Why, then, has inflation only recently exploded after 40 years of calm, now clipping along at better than four times the Federal Reserve’s target annual rate of two percent?

        In May 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew just 0.1% year-over-year. Are we to believe that corporations were simply feeling particularly benevolent, only to reverse course in dramatic fashion the very next year? Of course, that is preposterous.

        But the prevailing evidence that peddlers of the corporate greed narrative have repeatedly cited is the reality that corporate profits are at historic highs. This is, in fact, true. But it is entirely irrelevant to inflation itself and is not even indicative of any measurably intensified greed.

        The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures cost increases for businesses, is up 10.8 percent from last year. With consumer prices rising at 8.3 percent over the same period, this frankly means that American businesses en masse are likely not even passing on the full extent of the higher costs they themselves are paying, to consumers. So how can this be, even as corporations are raking in record profits? The answer lies in a distinction that the corporate greed crowd will never make: the distinction between corporations and businesses.

        In fact, just five percent of businesses are corporations. While the CPI measures the general prices that businesses are charging, corporate profits figures only measure the profits of large corporations. Yet it is chiefly small businesses that cannot afford significant increases in the cost of doing business because they have fewer resources than their larger corporate counterparts. Thus, it is highly probable that small businesses, which account for nearly half of American GDP, are primarily driving broad price increases, on no account of elevated greed, but rather as a result of an increase in their own cost of doing business.

        Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich is perhaps the most prominent purveyor of the corporate greed doctrine of inflation. If anyone can point to resounding evidence of malign corporate price-gouging, it should be Reich. In an article laying out his argument for “corporate power” being the catalyst behind record inflation, Reich condemns multinational coffeehouse chain Starbucks for announcing price hikes earlier this year despite being “so profitable.”

        What the twice Ivy-educated pundit fails to mention is that Starbucks’ Q1 2022 earnings were cut by more than half when compared to Q4 2021, despite revenue holding steady. Q2 2022 earnings dropped below that of even Q1. What’s more, the company reported lower earnings in 2021 than it did back in pre-Covid 2018, despite having higher revenues. Reich even conveniently ignores the fact that Starbucks recently revealed it would be raising its minimum wage to $15 per hour nationwide beginning this summer.

        Evidently, Starbucks isn’t the insatiably gluttonous enterprise that Robert Reich would like you to believe it is. And this seems to be a common theme with many of the companies that he and others proffer as evidence of nefarious profiteering. But it still doesn’t answer for why corporate profits are at historic highs. First, it is important to understand that corporate profit margins are not significantly higher than they were pre-Covid. With that established, it is likely that inordinate growth in consumer spending since the Covid recession is largely to blame for record profits. Needless to say, when Americans drop unprecedented quantities of cash on consumer products, companies whose costs don’t rise significantly fare pretty well.

        Certainly, it is understandable how the corporate greed dogma has caught on with vast swathes of the American public. Rancorous anti-corporate sentiment has been prevalent in America for years, and corporations, as such, make for quite convenient political scapegoats. But any effort to broadly place culpability for inflation on the private sector is demagoguery at best, and almost always attempted by ultracrepidarian activists rather than studied economists.

        The reality is that the true offender behind record inflation is the US government. The Federal Reserve has inflated the money supply by over 40 percent since the beginning of 2020, allowing congress to hand out checks to the public and driving an unhealthy initial spike in disposable income. As consumers spent off this superficial wealth, prices soared and disposable income tumbled.

        Consequently, today, as inflation ravages the wallets of everyday Americans, disproportionately impacting low-income families, the personal savings rate has plunged to just half of what it was in early 2019 and is now rapidly approaching all-time lows.

        American citizens are being forced to spend larger portions of their income on basic necessities and mundane lifestyle items, leaving less–or no–room for economically stimulating investment or leisure. The great evils of government–not corporation–inflation are every day becoming increasingly apparent.
        Last edited by seanD; 06-17-2022, 01:56 PM.
        "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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        • #19
          Atlanta fed has now officially forecasts a recession (note that this is just a forecast), which could be wrong but is based on the gloomy economic data pouring in in the last months...

          Key Fed GDP tracker turns negative, signaling recession is here


          Will there be an "official" announcement of stagflation next quarter, or will government manage to finagle a positive GDP report? As it stands, according to the Atlanta fed, we are in stagflation (official recession/high inflation)...




          "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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          • #20
            Originally posted by seanD View Post
            Atlanta fed has now officially forecasts a recession (note that this is just a forecast), which could be wrong but is based on the gloomy economic data pouring in in the last months...

            Key Fed GDP tracker turns negative, signaling recession is here


            Will there be an "official" announcement of stagflation next quarter, or will government manage to finagle a positive GDP report? As it stands, according to the Atlanta fed, we are in stagflation (official recession/high inflation)...



            Atlanta fed has just now revised its Q2 forecast down from -1.0 to -2.1.

            So, to simplify this:

            Two quarters of negative GDP growth is considered "official" recession.

            Q1 -- was actually revised down even lower from -1.5 to -1.6.

            Q2 -- forecast (according to Atlanta fed) has been revised down from -1.0 to now -2.1.
            "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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            • #21
              Originally posted by seanD View Post

              Atlanta fed has just now revised its Q2 forecast down from -1.0 to -2.1.

              So, to simplify this:

              Two quarters of negative GDP growth is considered "official" recession.

              Q1 -- was actually revised down even lower from -1.5 to -1.6.

              Q2 -- forecast (according to Atlanta fed) has been revised down from -1.0 to now -2.1.
              And those numbers are indicative of one that will hit hard, unlike many of those in recent decades where most people never realized it.

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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              • #22
                Food Banks Seeing Flood Of Families Despite Low Unemployment

                Despite US unemployment approaching multi-decade lows, food banks across the country are working overtime as inflation has forced many to turn to charity in order to feed their families.
                Dozens of vehicles line up to get food boxes at the St. Mary's Food Bank Wednesday, June 29, 2022, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

                As overall CPI has soared to a 40-year high of 9.1%, skyrocketing food and energy prices in particular are squeezing tapped-out consumers, along with rapidly rising rents and an end to federal COVID-19 relief.

                Looking at this another way, an adjusted "misery index" - which combines US labor force participation with CPI - hasn't been this high since the early 1980s.

                Which brings us back to food lines. As AP reports: "The food banks, which had started to see some relief as people returned to work after pandemic shutdowns, are struggling to meet the latest need even as federal programs provide less food to distribute, grocery store donations wane and cash gifts don’t go nearly as far."

                Tomasina John was among hundreds of families lined up in several lanes of cars that went around the block one recent day outside St. Mary’s Food Bank in Phoenix. John said her family had never visited a food bank before because her husband had easily supported her and their four children with his construction work.

                “But it’s really impossible to get by now without some help,” said John, who traveled with a neighbor to share gas costs as they idled under a scorching desert sun. “The prices are way too high.” -AP

                According to the report, "the same scene is repeated across the nation," while food bank workers are predicting a 'rough summer' keeping ahead of demand.

                "It does not look like it’s going to get better overnight," said Katie Fitzgerald, president and chief operating officer for the national food bank network Feeding America. "Demand is really making the supply challenges complex."

                The Phoenix food bank’s main distribution center doled out food packages to 4,271 families during the third week in June, a 78% increase over the 2,396 families served during the same week last year, said St. Mary’s spokesman Jerry Brown.

                More than 900 families line up at the distribution center every weekday for an emergency government food box stuffed with goods such as canned beans, peanut butter and rice, said Brown. St. Mary’s adds products purchased with cash donations, as well as food provided by local supermarkets like bread, carrots and pork chops for a combined package worth about $75. -AP

                At the Alameda County Community Food Bank in Northern California, distribution has risen sharply after hitting a pandemic low at the beginning of the year - increasing from 890 households to 1,410 households on the third Friday in June, according to marketing director Michael Altfest.

                Houston's food bank - the largest in the US - saw a peak of 1 million pounds of food per day, up from around 500,000 pounds per day before the pandemic, according to spokeswoman Paula Murphy.

                Other food bank reps had similar commentary.

                "A lot of these are people who are working and did OK during the pandemic and maybe even saw their wages go up," said Michael Flood, CEO for the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank. "This issue with inflation came on pretty suddenly."

                And according to Alameda County Food Bank's Michael Altfest, as many as 10% of the people now seeking food are first timers, while a growing number of people are showing up on foot rather than in cars.

                And as Fitzgerald pointed to, supply chain issues are also becoming a problem - something echoed by Altfest.

                "We used to reorder when our inventory dropped to three weeks’ worth, now we reorder up to six weeks out," he said, adding that the food bank has already ordered food for Thanksgiving.

                "The prices of food are so high and they’re going up higher every day," said Diane Martinez, who lined up one recent morning on foot in Los Angeles, adding "I’m so glad that they’re able to help us."
                Chickens to central bank economic policy distortion in the last few decades are finally coming home to roost.

                I suspect we're going to see stagflation that was nothing like the 70s. We're going to see unprecedented stuff, economic data that defies all Keynesian logic.

                For example: we might see a scenario of high inflation, low unemployment, increased government welfare programs (analogous to breadlines), AND negative GDP.

                Whatever data we get in the near future I'm sure it's going to cause Keynesians to scratch their head in bewilderment -- "We can't explain this, what's happening is unprecedented!" I'm sure market swings will keep getting crazy (like they are now) because investors won't know how to respond to it.
                "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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                • #23
                  Tonight's news had an article about skyrocketing electrical costs. Blames the increase on higher natural gas costs because of Ukraine. Surprised that there wasn't also blamed cast at climate change causing air conditioners to run more.
                  "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

                  "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

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                  • #24
                    I find it pretty amusing everyone is in shock and awe when the inflation they think they can accurately predict doesn't do what the "experts" and the Biden admin shills expect it to do. Why is anyone surprised? When global central banks did unprecedented things, now we're seeing unprecedented strange and bizarre outcomes globally that won't follow normal or conventional expectations.



                    In the meantime, about that civil unrest, folks are struggling. Case in point...



                    Consumer savings are being depleted, while consumer credit card debt is skyrocketing. And that's not all. Though retail sales rose a bit last month (that number isn't adjusted for inflation mind you), retail sales overall have been sluggish.

                    Yet how can this be?

                    How can retail sales be meh, yet savings rates are plummeting and credit card debt is skyrocketing? The conclusion is that folks are depleting their savings and using credit cards to buy non-discretionary items they can't afford otherwise because of inflation.

                    What does this mean?

                    You do the math. If folks are struggling to get by, going into debt to do it, with the prospect of even higher interest rates because of the Fed, what does this lead to? It means something's going to eventually break. Hence, the title of the thread.


                    "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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                    • #25
                      Buy food now, in cans, and stock up. Not that there will be a shortage (although there very well could be) but while it is still affordable. We are buying an extra case of canned goods and/or dried goods on every grocery visit.
                      "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
                      "
                      Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

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