Market Crash watch

[Thoughtful Monk]

In NY, the environmentalist are trying to enact a two year moratorium on coin mining. Apparently mining takes a lot of electricity and they don't like the impact of generating it all.

[Sparko]

In NY, the environmentalist are trying to enact a two year moratorium on coin mining. Apparently mining takes a lot of electricity and they don't like the impact of generating it all.

What are they gonna do when everyone switches over to electric vehicles like they also want? I guess electricity isn't "green" enough for environmentalists.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Interesting...the Chinese central bank cut their rate. Doubt anyone will follow suit. Market supposed to bounce back a little today but I suspect it will be a "dead cat": bounce.

[seanD]

- Nasdaq (officially) in a bear market.
- S&P (officially) entered a bear market today, but then managed to barely eke it's way out of it towards the end.
- DOW not yet (officially) in a bear market but has reached it's longest losing streak in almost a 100 years.

And yet the Fed has barely started. No balance sheet run-off yet. Just .75 basis point interest rate hike so far. That's it.

[Sparko]

Thanks Biden.

[seanD]

Thanks Biden.

To be perfectly honest with you, inflation probably would have been worse under Trump. At the very least, it would have been about the same. Not only was Trump perfectly fine with free money to everyone, and advocated for it, but he was the one who berated Powell the most for tightening in 2018, which is the reason I actually think Powell reversed course in 2019. I mean Trump was ruthless, even threatening to fire Powell. Trump didn't just berate Powell when he stopped QE, but even advocated for negative interest rates. Trump wouldn't have tolerated how the markets are responding and what Powell is doing now.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Thanks Biden.

I have to agree with seanD in that I'm not sure what would have been different if Trump had been reelected. I don't recall too many discussions about what would happen when the economy restarted. We're now in territory not many people planned for.

That being said, I think it's more likely that Trump would have been more responsive to the changing circumstances than Biden. Trump didn't strike me as into social change as Biden's agenda is. For example, not that would have made a huge difference, but the Keystone pipeline won't have been cancelled. There would have been a different response than Biden's. Biden just seems to be caught up in an agenda (don't waste a crisis to push through social change) that doesn't fit the circumstances and what he's doing is not helping.

[seanD]

I have to agree with seanD in that I'm not sure what would have been different if Trump had been reelected. I don't recall too many discussions about what would happen when the economy restarted. We're now in territory not many people planned for.

That being said, I think it's more likely that Trump would have been more responsive to the changing circumstances than Biden. Trump didn't strike me as into social change as Biden's agenda is. For example, not that would have made a huge difference, but the Keystone pipeline won't have been cancelled. There would have been a different response than Biden's. Biden just seems to be caught up in an agenda (don't waste a crisis to push through social change) that doesn't fit the circumstances and what he's doing is not helping.

Biden is definitely exacerbating the problem with the gas prices, but I honestly couldn't say for sure where to draw the line between how much influence inflation (money printing) is having on gas prices and Biden's anti-oil agenda. It's certainly not helping, that's for sure. As we all know, commodity prices across the board are through the roof and prices are rising on everything. Though I have a sneaky suspicion that when stagflation sets in, some prices will actually fall, particularly on discretionary items. Food and gas prices may stay elevated.

[tabibito]

Biden is definitely exacerbating the problem with the gas prices, but I honestly couldn't say for sure where to draw the line between how much influence inflation (money printing) is having on gas prices and Biden's anti-oil agenda. It's certainly not helping, that's for sure. As we all know, commodity prices across the board are through the roof and prices are rising on everything. Though I have a sneaky suspicion that when stagflation sets in, some prices will actually fall, particularly on discretionary items. Food and gas prices may stay elevated.

Discretionary items will certainly take a hit. Increasing numbers of people struggling to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table won't be spending up big on new TVs, or take-away, or trips. There will also be an uptick in union membership and disruption if wages are pegged.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Discretionary items will certainly take a hit. Increasing numbers of people struggling to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table won't be spending up big on new TVs, or take-away, or trips. There will also be an uptick in union membership and disruption if wages are pegged.

In addition to discretionary items, the hospitality and tourist industries are going to take a hit. A friend told me about his brother who was going to take a month-long RV trip. When he figured the gas would be $2,000 for the trip, he changed his plans.

I personally just put $1,200 into maintenance on my older car. With care, I should be able to get another 3 to 4 years out of it. Hopefully by then, interest rates and used car prices will be down - at least a little.

Next item I'm watching for, unemployment to start moving up. As consumers slow spending, layoffs will come.

[tabibito]

In addition to discretionary items, the hospitality and tourist industries are going to take a hit. A friend told me about his brother who was going to take a month-long RV trip. When he figured the gas would be $2,000 for the trip, he changed his plans.

I personally just put $1,200 into maintenance on my older car. With care, I should be able to get another 3 to 4 years out of it. Hopefully by then, interest rates and used car prices will be down - at least a little.

Next item I'm watching for, unemployment to start moving up. As consumers slow spending, layoffs will come.

The usual pattern. About four to six months in, we should start to hear screams about the unreasonable demands by rapacious unions creating inflation and unemployment.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Just saw an article claiming the Fed will raise rates 0.50% in both June and July. If that comes to pass, that would be a total hike of 1.75%. Not great for everyone and will certainly contribute the red wave. On the other hand, this is probably better than hyperinflation.

[Sparko]

To be perfectly honest with you, inflation probably would have been worse under Trump. At the very least, it would have been about the same. Not only was Trump perfectly fine with free money to everyone, and advocated for it, but he was the one who berated Powell the most for tightening in 2018, which is the reason I actually think Powell reversed course in 2019. I mean Trump was ruthless, even threatening to fire Powell. Trump didn't just berate Powell when he stopped QE, but even advocated for negative interest rates. Trump wouldn't have tolerated how the markets are responding and what Powell is doing now.

But Trump would have gotten the economy running again and stopped all the COVID nonsense we have had over the last year and a half. He would have kept fuel costs down and US oil production up. The supply chain issues would never have happened. All that would serve to counteract the inflation and shortages we see now. And I don't think Trump would have done extra "incentive" payments to Americans.

[seanD]

But Trump would have gotten the economy running again and stopped all the COVID nonsense we have had over the last year and a half. He would have kept fuel costs down and US oil production up. The supply chain issues would never have happened. All that would serve to counteract the inflation and shortages we see now. And I don't think Trump would have done extra "incentive" payments to Americans.

I don't know what you mean by "gotten the economy running again." Trump no doubt would have opposed the Great Reset nonsense and the intentional crippling of our energy infrastructure. But again, I'm not sure what degree that's affecting gas prices. A lot of the effects are a result of the government spending both Trump and Biden did during covid in the last two years. Some things also would have been out of Trump's control. We still are having supply chain issues because China's greatest city exporter is still locked down. I'm saying Trump wouldn't have tolerated how markets are reacting. He cherished the stock market highs and used it to brag about how successful he was when it was actually the Fed's QE doing it, and Trump knew this. So he would have undoubtedly lambasted Powell for tightening like he did in 2018 and would have likely forced him to back down.

[seanD]

Remember folks, these are the "experts" running the largest economy on the globe...

Btw, good economic news is now bad news to the markets. Because the recent jobs report wasn't as bad as some people anticipated, the markets took a dive today. The reason that good economic news is bad news and bad economic news is good news is because traders think that bad economic news is sign of a recession and will increase the chances that the Fed will capitulate and reverse tightening. This is how upside down everything is.

The only bad economic news I expect to rattle the markets downward is if the CPI number comes out hotter than expected. If the CPI is lower, this will (or at least seem to) bolster the experts claiming inflation has peaked and thus give more reason for the Fed to back off tightening.