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Nuclear Deal With Iran

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  • Nuclear Deal With Iran

    Obviously a big deal, here.

    Now that we know the essential framework of the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, it's worth discussing the merits of the deal, as well as concerns. From my view:

    Pros:
    • Diplomatic victory to even get to this point
    • Iran's nuclear weapons capability significantly (almost wholly) degraded
    • Sanctions relief (citizens)
    • Strong inspections ability (with caveat, see Cons)



    Cons:
    • Sanctions relief (weapons embargo lifted)
    • Option for Iran to appeal on-the-spot inspections



    I think, at this point, no one can legitimately argue that this is a "bad deal", especially without offering a plausible alternative. The criticism that Iran would have to actually abide by this deal is fair, of course that would be true of any deal but the argument that sanctions relief should be completely based on measurable compliance is not irrational. I think it's clear, however, that there could be no deal without the more liberal relief given here so the question would again be "What's the plausible alternative?"

    There are also criticisms of the deal that I believe sound reasonable but, on inspection, are not very good. Lifting the weapons embargo and unfreezing hundreds of billions of dollars will allow Iran to increase its military activity and sponsor militias (and terrorists groups) in the region. This is both good (ISIS) and bad (Israel). But it's very unlikely that sanctions or the weapons embargo would have lasted for long if the USA didn't show extremely good faith negotiations ... or regardless of whether they did.

    And, of course, there are just the bad criticisms: "Appeasement! Regime change! The embargo cannot fail but can only be failed! Selling out Israel!" these are the criticisms I do not believe are worth spending any serious time engaging, as they don't hook into the real world generally and the region's political realities specifically.

    Here's a short video from Vox that focuses on the good aspects of the plan, for those who need a jump-start primer on the subject:

    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"


  • #2
    ISIS is sunni; Iran is Shia.

    Unless I'm misinterpreting what you meant.
    Last edited by seanD; 07-15-2015, 02:57 PM.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

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    • #3
      Without spot inspection the plan is pretty much useless. It is not like Iran has been trustworthy in the past. For instance are we going to get to do inspections before we lift the arms embargo and release monies?
      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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      • #4
        My question is, what if Israel attacks Iran anyway?
        "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by seand View Post
          my question is, what if israel attacks iran anyway?
          ww3?
          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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          • #6
            Originally posted by seer View Post
            ww3?
            I know what side Hillary and Bush will take, but what side will Obama take?
            "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by seanD View Post
              I know what side Hillary and Bush will take, but what side will Obama take?
              Ouch!
              Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by seanD View Post
                ISIS is sunni; Iran is Shia.

                Unless I'm misinterpreting what you meant.
                Yes, I wasn't terribly clear there: lifting the weapons embargo against Iran will be both good (it will allow Iran to better combat ISIS and US policy regarding ISIS leans heavily on Iran's help) and bad (it will allow Iran to escalate military/militia/terrorist operations in the Middle East, should it choose to do so).

                Sorry for the confusion.
                "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sam View Post
                  Yes, I wasn't terribly clear there: lifting the weapons embargo against Iran will be both good (it will allow Iran to better combat ISIS and US policy regarding ISIS leans heavily on Iran's help) and bad (it will allow Iran to escalate military/militia/terrorist operations in the Middle East, should it choose to do so).

                  Sorry for the confusion.
                  I don't see anything good there. I don't want Iran to be able to better combat ISIS; I want Iran to have to devote all its energy to combating ISIS so it has nothing to expend against the West in general or Israel in particular. If one of Iran or ISIS wipes out the other, GREAT! That's one less evil we have to worry about.

                  US policy of leaning heavily on the help of a country that calls us "the great Satan" and routinely chants "death to America" is mind-numbingly stupid.
                  Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. St. John Chrysostom

                  Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
                  sigpic
                  I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

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                  • #10
                    There is nothing good about the deal. I do not believe Obama ever intended to do more that stall for time for Iran.
                    Micah 6:8 He has told you, O man, what is good; and what does the LORD require of you but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?

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                    • #11
                      This deal seems to be amazingly good beyond what could have realistically been hoped or imagined. Iran pledges to never get a nuclear weapon, and agrees to an inspection regime so thorough and complete the likes of which have barely, if ever, been seen before. In exchange the other nations of the world basically do nothing... they just refrain from going out of their way to be nasty to Iran.

                      BEST DEAL EVER.


                      It's hilarious, however, how the lying warhawks like Netanyahu, Limbaugh, Linsey Graham, and Tom Cotton, are flipping out over this and doing their mindless rants about how endless war with Iran is the only possible solution to all the world's problems.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        This deal seems to be amazingly good beyond what could have realistically been hoped or imagined. Iran pledges to never get a nuclear weapon, and agrees to an inspection regime so thorough and complete the likes of which have barely, if ever, been seen before. In exchange the other nations of the world basically do nothing... they just refrain from going out of their way to be nasty to Iran.
                        Hey Starfish, how did that Kool Aid taste?
                        Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
                          I don't see anything good there. I don't want Iran to be able to better combat ISIS; I want Iran to have to devote all its energy to combating ISIS so it has nothing to expend against the West in general or Israel in particular. If one of Iran or ISIS wipes out the other, GREAT! That's one less evil we have to worry about.

                          US policy of leaning heavily on the help of a country that calls us "the great Satan" and routinely chants "death to America" is mind-numbingly stupid.
                          The Iranian regime, for all of its sins, is not an irrational actor and treating it as equivalent to ISIS is a mistake, one we've frankly encountered before with Iraq. The idea of an ISIS (or Iran) that unilaterally wiped out the other is rather horrific, considering what that sort of ground war would look like through the region. Would we want the Iranian borders extending through northern Iraq and into Syria? Do we want an ISIS powerful enough to "wipe out" Iran, with is 2-3 times larger than Iraq?

                          I personally can't take that sort of comment seriously; it imagines the Iranian regime as not only inherently hostile but held back from a self-defeating war with the West (or Israel) by the lack of resources devoted to combating ISIS. That's not backed by history or reason.

                          (For those unfamiliar with the geography, map below)

                          middle_east.gif
                          "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by seer View Post
                            Hey Starfish, how did that Kool Aid taste?
                            seer, be civil and keep on topic, please. More of that will result in a request to exit the thread.
                            "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Jedidiah View Post
                              There is nothing good about the deal. I do not believe Obama ever intended to do more that stall for time for Iran.
                              Part of the deal involves Iran reducing its nuclear stockpile by 98%. I'm uncertain what benefit you perceive was gained in "stalling for time".
                              "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

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