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What Happened in the Mid 90's to Cause Crime to Plummet?

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  • What Happened in the Mid 90's to Cause Crime to Plummet?

    In looking at violent crime statistics relative to Pman's "Guns" thread, there seems to be a universal acknowledgement that violent crime in the US began a steep decline in 1993.

    I'm still looking at the various sources and to what they attribute this decrease, but thought this would be a good thread for that discussion, rather than derailing the "Guns" thread.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since youve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?

  • #2
    "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

    There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
      In looking at violent crime statistics relative to Pman's "Guns" thread, there seems to be a universal acknowledgement that violent crime in the US began a steep decline in 1993.

      I'm still looking at the various sources and to what they attribute this decrease, but thought this would be a good thread for that discussion, rather than derailing the "Guns" thread.
      As most popularly cited from the book "Freakonomics," one theory is that the Roe v Wade decision in 1973 may ultimately have been the cause of the crime drop. Authors Stephen Levitt and Steven Dubner explain (pages 138-140):

      What sort of woman was most likely to take advantage of Roe v. Wade? Very often she was unmarried or in her teens or poor, and sometimes all three. What sort of future might her child have had? One study has shown that the typical child who went unborn in the earliest years of legalized abortion would have been 50 percent more likely than average to live in poverty; he would have also been 60 percent more likely to grow up with just one parent. These two factors--childhood poverty and a single-parent household--are among the strongest predictors that a child will have a criminal future. Growing up in a single-parent home roughly doubles a child's propensity to commit crime. So does having a teenage mother. Another study has shown that low maternal education is the single most powerful factor leading to criminality.

      In other words, the very factors that drove millions of American women to have an abortion also seemed to predict that their children, had they been born, would have led unhappy and possibly criminal lives.
      ...

      Perhaps the most dramatic effect of legalized abortion, however, and one that would take years to reveal itself, was its impact on crime. In the early 1990s, just as the first cohort of children born after Roe v. Wade was hitting its late teen years--the years during which young men enter their criminal prime--the rate of crime began to fall. What this cohort was missing, of course, were the children who stood the greatest chance of becoming criminals. And the crime rate continued to fall as an entire generation came of age minus the children whose mothers had not wanted to bring a child into the world. Legalized abortion led to less unwantedness; unwantedness leads to high crime; legalized abortion, therefore, led to less crime.


      This isn't to say, of course, that abortion should therefore be legalized on this basis. After all, the most fool-proof way of stopping crime would be to kill EVERY human being, thereby getting rid of all criminals by getting rid of all people, but that doesn't mean we ought to deploy tactics of global genocide. Additionally, one could argue that in a sense the crime rate has increased with all the abortions that took place in those two decades between the decision and the crime drop. However, it's an interesting hypothesis--crime dropped because the people who ordinarily would've been born into conditions that are most likely to produce criminals simply weren't being born. It would also possibly explain phenomena like the disproportionately high incidence of violent crime via guns in the South--the region has generally been among the most vehemently opposed to abortion, potentially resulting in more people being born into criminal-fostering conditions.
      Last edited by fm93; 11-27-2014, 02:45 PM.
      Learn to do right; seek justice. Defend the oppressed. Take up the cause of the fatherless; plead the case of the widow.--Isaiah 1:17

      I don't think that all forms o[f] slavery are inherently immoral.--seer

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      • #4
        Freakonomics is a terrible book and the abortion claim has been debunked repeatedly. This graph pretty much ends that discussion:

        Last edited by Darth Executor; 11-27-2014, 02:47 PM.
        "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

        There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

        Comment


        • #5
          Although the intensity of the violence and the gruesomeness of the crimes has gone up. That's something that need not be overlooked. I don't think it can be correlated to Roe v Wade. I think it may perhaps be something else. And in that respect, for those who argue that life begins in utero, the murder rate would have then skyrocketed.
          A happy family is but an earlier heaven.
          George Bernard Shaw

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          • #6
            The Baby Boomers finally got too old for mayhem.
            The greater number of laws . . . , the more thieves . . . there will be. ---- Lao-Tzu

            [T]he truth Im after and the truth never harmed anyone. What harms us is to persist in self-deceit and ignorance - Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

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            • #7
              One idea I heard was that it involves the removal of lead in gasoline.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Truthseeker View Post
                The Baby Boomers finally got too old for mayhem.
                The Baby Boomers are known for lies and swindling much more than mayhem and gangsterism.

                Originally posted by Psychic Missile
                One idea I heard was that it involves the removal of lead in gasoline.
                A better idea is that it involves people not going outside as much anymore. To be fair, that may have been where all the lead fumes were.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                  In looking at violent crime statistics relative to Pman's "Guns" thread, there seems to be a universal acknowledgement that violent crime in the US began a steep decline in 1993.

                  I'm still looking at the various sources and to what they attribute this decrease, but thought this would be a good thread for that discussion, rather than derailing the "Guns" thread.
                  Because that is when they really began a systematic drugging of boys? Turning them into effeminate drones?

                  Methylphenidate (trade names Concerta, Methylin, Ritalin, Equasym XL, Quillivant XR) is a substituted phenethylamine and psychostimulant drug used for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome and narcolepsy. Methylphenidate has been studied and researched for over 50 years and has a very good efficacy and safety record for the treatment of ADHD.[3] The original patent was owned by CIBA, now Novartis Corporation. It was first licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1955 for treating what was then known as hyperactivity. Prescribed to patients beginning in 1960, the drug became heavily prescribed in the 1990s, when the diagnosis of ADHD itself became more widely accepted.
                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methylphenidate
                  Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by seer View Post
                    Because that is when they really began a systematic drugging of boys? Turning them into effeminate drones?
                    Seriously?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                      Seriously?
                      Actually - yes, or maybe.
                      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Epoetker View Post
                        The Baby Boomers are known for lies and swindling much more than mayhem and gangsterism.
                        You imply my suggestion is wrong?



                        A better idea is that it involves people not going outside as much anymore. To be fair, that may have been where all the lead fumes were.[/QUOTE]A idea of mine is that Psychic Missile needs to do something about lead fumes in his breathing air.
                        The greater number of laws . . . , the more thieves . . . there will be. ---- Lao-Tzu

                        [T]he truth Im after and the truth never harmed anyone. What harms us is to persist in self-deceit and ignorance - Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Truthseeker View Post
                          A idea of mine is that Psychic Missile needs to do something about lead fumes in his breathing air.
                          PM is stubborn and willful but not evil, as far as I can tell. Sadly, he is also British, and thus picks up nukeable public policy positions in his drinking water and daily media every day. It would be safer for his overall developmental health and happiness to breathe lead in a mining community, where he would at least learn loyalty and respect for workers without turning them into caricatures.

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                          • #14
                            PM is british? I thought he was American. Maybe Canadian.
                            "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

                            There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Considering that NOT treating ADHD leads to serious changes in the brain and is linked with several types of severe dementia Ritalin is actually quite useful. First know what your criticizing before you pull the trigger. And there are many effective ways to treat more violent mental illnesses linked with violent crimes. This is not the equivalent of turning people into drones. Its the equivalent of treating an illness.
                              That said, overprescribing for fear of lawsuits is all too common, as opposed to alternative therapies of which the combination of medication and alternate therapies works the best for all or nearly all illnesses, physical and mental. Being too quick to judge isn't very smart.
                              A happy family is but an earlier heaven.
                              George Bernard Shaw

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