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Voter Fraud, Really?

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  • Voter Fraud, Really?

    Say it ain't so Joe...

    Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.

    How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
    http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...s-jim-geraghty

    http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/home
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

  • #2
    Are non-citizens not allowed to vote in the US?

    Both Countries I've lived in allow permanent residents to vote, not just citizens.
    "If you can ever make any major religion look absolutely ludicrous, chances are you haven't understood it"
    -Ravi Zacharias, The New Age: A foreign bird with a local walk

    Be watchful, stand firm in the faith, act like men, be strong.
    1 Corinthians 16:13

    "...he [Doherty] is no historian and he is not even conversant with the historical discussions of the very matters he wants to pontificate on."
    -Ben Witherington III

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Raphael View Post
      Are non-citizens not allowed to vote in the US?

      Both Countries I've lived in allow permanent residents to vote, not just citizens.
      It's against federal law for non-citizens (foreigners / aliens) to vote in federal elections, or even to register to vote.

      18 U.S.C. §611. - Voting by Aliens". United States Congress.
      "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        It's against federal law for non-citizens (foreigners / aliens) to vote in federal elections, or even to register to vote.

        18 U.S.C. §611. - Voting by Aliens". United States Congress.
        This isn't quite accurate; states determine voting eligibility and many have, historically, allowed resident non-citizens to vote. SCOTUS has, in the past, upheld such voting as constitutional when allowed by a state. The USC referenced even allows for such activity:

        Source: 18 U.S.C. §611. - Voting by Aliens

        (a)It shall be unlawful for any alien to vote in any election held solely or in part for the purpose of electing a candidate for the office of President, Vice President, Presidential elector, Member of the Senate, Member of the House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, or Resident Commissioner, unless—(1) the election is held partly for some other purpose;
        (2) aliens are authorized to vote for such other purpose under a State constitution or statute or a local ordinance; and
        (3) voting for such other purpose is conducted independently of voting for a candidate for such Federal offices, in such a manner that an alien has the opportunity to vote for such other purpose, but not an opportunity to vote for a candidate for any one or more of such Federal offices.

        © Copyright Original Source



        It's not against federal law for non-citizens to vote or register to vote, in other words. They just can't vote on a federal ballot.
        "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Sam View Post
          This isn't quite accurate; states determine voting eligibility and many have, historically, allowed resident non-citizens to vote. SCOTUS has, in the past, upheld such voting as constitutional when allowed by a state. The USC referenced even allows for such activity:

          Source: 18 U.S.C. §611. - Voting by Aliens

          (a)It shall be unlawful for any alien to vote in any election held solely or in part for the purpose of electing a candidate for the office of President, Vice President, Presidential elector, Member of the Senate, Member of the House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, or Resident Commissioner, unless—(1) the election is held partly for some other purpose;
          (2) aliens are authorized to vote for such other purpose under a State constitution or statute or a local ordinance; and
          (3) voting for such other purpose is conducted independently of voting for a candidate for such Federal offices, in such a manner that an alien has the opportunity to vote for such other purpose, but not an opportunity to vote for a candidate for any one or more of such Federal offices.

          © Copyright Original Source



          It's not against federal law for non-citizens to vote or register to vote, in other words. They just can't vote on a federal ballot.
          yeah, I said "federal elections".

          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          It's against federal law for non-citizens (foreigners / aliens) to vote in federal elections, or even to register to vote.
          Perhaps, for the pedantic, I should have added "in federal elections" at the end, too?
          "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            yeah, I said "federal elections".



            Perhaps, for the pedantic, I should have added "in federal elections" at the end, too?
            Yes, I think the distinction is important; I figured that's what you were saying but other folks might not be as aware of the election nuances as we are!
            "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Sam View Post
              Yes, I think the distinction is important; I figured that's what you were saying but other folks might not be as aware of the election nuances as we are!
              I apologize for the "pedantic" comment - that wasn't necessary.
              "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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              • #8
                So what we come away with here is that in some cases, non-citizens are permitted to vote, and it doesn't constitute fraud. Is that right?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by phank View Post
                  So what we come away with here is that in some cases, non-citizens are permitted to vote, and it doesn't constitute fraud. Is that right?
                  Non-citizens can often vote in local elections, the logic being that they are voting on things that directly affect them in their locale.

                  From ThinkProgress,org, not your most conservative source of information...

                  Source: ThinkProgress.org

                  Non-citizens can only vote in local elections. Perhaps the most important part of non-citizen voting is that non-citizens are only allowed to vote in local elections. There are valid reasons to want federal elections, which have a big impact on our nation’s foreign policy, decided only by American citizens. But, as Leventhal explained to ThinkProgress, “If you live in a town, you’re interested in getting your garbage picked up and your property taxes.” In other words, parochial matters like city services and local taxes impact both citizen and non-citizen residents alike.

                  © Copyright Original Source

                  "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by phank View Post
                    So what we come away with here is that in some cases, non-citizens are permitted to vote, and it doesn't constitute fraud. Is that right?
                    No; I've got the actual paper here in front of me (yay online early access). What the authors argue is that they found some 340 self-reported non-citizens in the CCES database in 2008 and another number in 2010. From those, 38 non-citizens reported having voted in 2008 and 13 non-citizens reported having voted in 2010. Five of the votes were verified in 2008 by the authors, though none were verified in 2010. From there, the authors sought to determine the likelihood that the self-reporting of being a non-citizen wasn't accidental (by aligning the demographics involved), that none of the self-reporting came from the region of Maryland that allows non-citizen voting, and offered an estimate of how prevalent non-citizen voting is, assuming the CCES sample is an accurate representation of voting on a national level. The authors note that non-citizen voting was inversely linked to education, with no college-educated or higher non-citizens voting and most voting occurring among high-school dropouts. They postulate that these votes likely occurred as a result of the non-citizens not knowing that they couldn't vote. So these citizens were not permitted to vote but it wouldn't be considered voter fraud if the voting was, in fact, inadvertent.

                    Interestingly, of the non-citizens who were asked to show photo ID before they could vote, only ~25% were unable to do so; the authors argue that strict Voter ID laws appear to be ineffective at preventing non-citizen voting.

                    I think the sample size here and the wide variation in non-citizen populations and electoral education efforts across states is too different to draw good guesstimates like the authors do in this paper. Still, it's an interesting piece and deserves further review.
                    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I admit I have some problems with the voter ID laws, since
                      1) The ID required to register (validly) is the same as the ID required to get the new ID. No additional level of verification is added.
                      2) Valid photo ID doesn't seem to deter non-citizen voting very much, and they weren't even attempting to commit fraud
                      3) Intentional voter impersonation fraud (claiming to be someone else) is so rare nobody can actually find any.
                      4) Voting fraud is all too common, but no known voting fraud would be affected EVEN IF every citizen had a valid photo ID that was rigorously verified at both registration and voting.

                      In any case, these numbers suggest that inadvertent non-citizen (invalid) voting isn't much of a problem.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by phank View Post
                        In any case, these numbers suggest that inadvertent non-citizen (invalid) voting isn't much of a problem.
                        That's an interesting phrase --- "not much of a problem".

                        With so many elections being decided by razor thin margins, how "much" of a problem is a problem? In one recent County election in my area, the vote was decided by THREE votes.

                        But, another thing -- why do you call it "inadvertent"? You think non-citizens are voting by accident?
                        "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by phank View Post
                          I admit I have some problems with the voter ID laws, since
                          1) The ID required to register (validly) is the same as the ID required to get the new ID. No additional level of verification is added.
                          2) Valid photo ID doesn't seem to deter non-citizen voting very much, and they weren't even attempting to commit fraud
                          3) Intentional voter impersonation fraud (claiming to be someone else) is so rare nobody can actually find any.
                          4) Voting fraud is all too common, but no known voting fraud would be affected EVEN IF every citizen had a valid photo ID that was rigorously verified at both registration and voting.

                          In any case, these numbers suggest that inadvertent non-citizen (invalid) voting isn't much of a problem.
                          Exactly true; even if the amount of inadvertent non-citizen voting were statistically significant (which the authors of this paper may have been true in a MN Senate race and for the 2008 NC electoral college vote), strict Voter ID doesn't appear to be a deterrent and certainly is not the least restrictive deterrent possible. Short of this paper (just now published), supporters of strict Voter ID laws cannot point to any empirical evidence of significant in-person illegal voting, inadvertent or fraudulent. Conversely, there have been numerous studies demonstrating the hidden costs of obtaining an ID, the disenfranchisement inherent in Voter ID laws and even findings of discriminatory intent of at least some Voter ID laws.

                          A rational process would be to evaluate the evidence for in-person voter fraud or inadvertent illegal voting and balance it against the possibility of disenfranchising voters. Of course, many Conservatives supporting strict Voter ID never gave two cents about the balance; as the other voter suppression efforts (i.e., limiting early voting, restricting voting options, closing voting stations early) clearly demonstrate, the intent has been to lower turnout among those types of people most likely to vote for the opposition.

                          Making Election Day a national holiday, expanding early voting, reducing disenfranchisement by providing truly free photo ID to all citizens . . . these would indicate that maybe the GOP's efforts regarding photo ID were sincere and above-board. We're clearly not in that place.
                          "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Sam View Post
                            Making Election Day a national holiday, expanding early voting,
                            Why not expand early voting AND making each of those days national holidays?

                            reducing disenfranchisement by providing truly free photo ID to all citizens . . . these would indicate that maybe the GOP's efforts regarding photo ID were sincere and above-board. We're clearly not in that place.
                            I just don't understand why liberals hate minorities so much that they don't WANT them to have photo IDs. Heck, you guys will have voter drives where you'll bus them in from all over to VOTE, and register them whether they want to or not -- why not have those same people round them up to take them to get their photo IDs? Maybe if the liberals came up with a plan to HELP the "disenfranchised" get photo IDs, we would believe you guys were sincere. We're clearly not in that place.
                            "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              Why not expand early voting AND making each of those days national holidays?



                              I just don't understand why liberals hate minorities so much that they don't WANT them to have photo IDs. Heck, you guys will have voter drives where you'll bus them in from all over to VOTE, and register them whether they want to or not -- why not have those same people round them up to take them to get their photo IDs? Maybe if the liberals came up with a plan to HELP the "disenfranchised" get photo IDs, we would believe you guys were sincere. We're clearly not in that place.

                              This is about as transparent as ridiculous claptrap can get. If the goal is to get photo IDs to people who don't have them, there's no need to accomplish that measure by requiring a photo ID to vote. If that's your goal, there are myriad other ways to accomplish it. Please don't try to shift blame — or, if you do, please try to be a bit more clever about it.

                              You can see above where I note that "reducing disenfranchisement by providing truly free photo ID to all citizens ... would indicate that maybe the GOP's efforts regarding photo ID were sincere and above-board." Clearly, I'm not against citizens having access to photo IDs if they need or want them. Indeed, I'm implying that such IDs should be truly free of charge, rather than being subject to hidden fees as they are in many states today.

                              Making Election Day a national holiday isn't a panacea, as many people would still have to work. Making sure that people could conveniently access voting stations would require early voting, the expansion of which has been shown to improve voter turnout. Trying to parody that by reductio absurdum is just another indication that you're not treating the topic seriously.
                              "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

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