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Will Republicans Take the Senate?

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  • Will Republicans Take the Senate?

    Source: WashingtonPost

    All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to the party's strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.

    The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post's Election Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67 percent while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65 percent chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55 percent and FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55 percent.

    All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.

    © Copyright Original Source



    Source

    Let's see... all three major forecasting models: Washington Post at 67%, FiveThirtyEight at 60% and New York Times at 67%. So, you add up the three numbers - 67 + 67 + 60 = 194, and divide that by 3 for an average percentage of 64.6, which means that the Republicans have about an 83% chance of doing something REALLY STUPID before the election, once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Seriously, though, how likely do you think it is that the Republicans will actually take the Senate, and by how much?


    Epo - you can post in this thread, but ZERO racist / misogynist content.
    14
    Yes, the Republicans will be the Senate Majority
    42.86%
    6
    No, the polls are over-inflated, and Dems will still maintain Senate Control
    7.14%
    1
    It will be a tie
    7.14%
    1
    I really don't care
    42.86%
    6
    Last edited by Cow Poke; 09-29-2014, 01:17 PM.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  • #2
    I think a lot of people are teed off at the democrats right now.

    Comment


    • #3
      Whoever wins, America loses. Unless by some miracle every single person in America decides to overturn the current political system and replace every single politician with people who aren't disgustingly corrupt moral cripples. Of course, that would require the majority of the American voting public to have more than half a brain between them.
      My Amazon Author page: https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0719RS8BK

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Rational Gaze View Post
        Whoever wins, America loses. Unless by some miracle every single person in America decides to overturn the current political system and replace every single politician with people who aren't disgustingly corrupt moral cripples. Of course, that would require the majority of the American voting public to have more than half a brain between them.
        I am beginning to agree with this more and more.
        I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

        Comment


        • #5
          Too many miscreants who are voting for their own benefit to change anything.
          That's what
          - She

          Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
          - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

          I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
          Stephen R. Donaldson

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
            Too many miscreants who are voting for their own benefit to change anything.
            EGGzackly!
            "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Rational Gaze View Post
              Whoever wins, America loses. Unless by some miracle every single person in America decides to overturn the current political system and replace every single politician with people who aren't disgustingly corrupt moral cripples. Of course, that would require the majority of the American voting public to have more than half a brain between them.
              Ahhh, the fruits of democracy.
              Better to illuminate than merely to shine, to deliver to others contemplated truths than merely to contemplate.

              -Thomas Aquinas

              I love to travel, But hate to arrive.

              -Hernando Cortez

              What is the good of experience if you do not reflect?

              -Frederick 2, Holy Roman Emperor

              Comment


              • #8
                Unless they immediately nominate Jeff Sessions as majority leader they'll get precisely nowhere in doing anything useful.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Beginning to look like yes..... and Obama is helping the Democrats SO much!
                  "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    Beginning to look like yes..... and Obama is helping the Democrats SO much!
                    There's just not a whole lot of enthusiasm for voting Democrat this cycle, which will probably be the biggest factor. It's not so much that people will vote Republican rather than Democrat this time around, but that the people more inclined to vote Democrat will tend to stay away from the polls.
                    Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

                    Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
                    sigpic
                    I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
                      There's just not a whole lot of enthusiasm for voting Democrat this cycle, which will probably be the biggest factor. It's not so much that people will vote Republican rather than Democrat this time around, but that the people more inclined to vote Democrat will tend to stay away from the polls.
                      I think that, but Independents might break Republican moreso than they would have.
                      "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Rational Gaze View Post
                        Whoever wins, America loses. Unless by some miracle every single person in America decides to overturn the current political system and replace every single politician with people who aren't disgustingly corrupt moral cripples. Of course, that would require the majority of the American voting public to have more than half a brain between them.
                        This is excessively cynical. We elect people who promise to do what we prefer. Those people then face orders of magnitude more particular issues and votes than their campaign materials ever dreamed of. So we try to elect people with good judgment. Alas, "good judgment" means "voting the way I would." If a constituency is tens of thousands of people, it's impossible to please them all, and often impossible to please even a simple majority. Calling people "corrupt" simply for failing to do the impossible is too harsh.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Epoetker View Post
                          Unless they immediately nominate Jeff Sessions as majority leader they'll get precisely nowhere in doing anything useful.
                          OMG! Jeff Sessions is the Shame of Alabama, as pith-poor a politician as could be found anywhere. The idea that he "represents" me turns my stomach - it would be impossible to find anyone who represents my views less than Sessions unless it's Richard Shelby. With this kind of leadership, it's no mystery why Alabama is one of the poorest, least educated, deepest red, collection of freeloaders of any state in the nation. Do we really WANT the nation to go straight to hell in a handbasket? Seriously?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by phank View Post
                            This is excessively cynical. We elect people who promise to do what we prefer. Those people then face orders of magnitude more particular issues and votes than their campaign materials ever dreamed of. So we try to elect people with good judgment. Alas, "good judgment" means "voting the way I would." If a constituency is tens of thousands of people, it's impossible to please them all, and often impossible to please even a simple majority. Calling people "corrupt" simply for failing to do the impossible is too harsh.
                            You kinda sorta left out the lobbyist effect.
                            "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TimelessTheist View Post
                              Ahhh, the fruits of democracy.
                              I think we were warned about this a long time back. Even though we are not a democracy, the same problem has come out to bite us.
                              Micah 6:8 He has told you, O man, what is good; and what does the LORD require of you but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?

                              Comment

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