Two Projections Re Global Temperature in the Near Future

[John Reece]

It's a pretty safe bet that the current pause won't last. It's possible (though not at all certain) that 2014 will be a new record high. I definitely expect that one of the next five years will show a very clear record high global surface temperature anomaly. But we'll see....

Cheers -- sylas

That is an IPCC-based perspective ― if I be not mistaken; sylas can correct me if I am wrong in that regard.

On the other hand, in an extensive footnote in an article here (see footnote #10), an author lists four major factors that could indicate cooling rather than warming in the near future. I will excerpt from the article only the PDO factor, because that is the one that Roy Spencer identifies as the primary driver of natural climate change ― as opposed to IPCC AGW theory.

Cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation refers to cyclical variations in sea surface temperatures that occur in the North Pacific Ocean. (The PDO is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern.) PDO events usually persist for 20 to 30 years, alternating between warm and cool phases.

From 1977 to 1998, during the height of “global warming,” North America was in the midst of a warm PDO.

But the PDO has once again resumed its negative cool phase, and, as such, represents the first climate driver in the Triple Crown of Cooling. With the switch to a cool PDO, we’ve seen a change in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between El Nino (warm phase) and La Nina (cool phase) every few years. The recent strong El Nino that began in July 2009 is now transitioning to a La Nina, a sign of cooler temperatures ahead.

“We’re definitely headed towards La Nina conditions before summer is over, and we’re looking at a moderate to strong La Nina by fall and winter, which ... should bring us cooler temperatures over the next few years,” predicts Joe D’Aleo, founder of the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP) and the first director of meteorology at the Weather Channel.

He is not alone in his forecast. Bastardi also sees a La Nina just around the corner.

“I’ve been saying since February that we’ll transition to La Nina by the middle of the hurricane season. I think we’re already seeing the atmosphere going into a La Nina state in advance of water temperatures. This will have interesting implications down the road. La Nina will dramatically cool off everything later this year and into next year, and it is a signal for strong hurricane activity,” Bastardi predicts.

The difference in sea surface temperature between positive and negative PDO phases is not more than 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, but the affected area is huge. So the temperature changes can have a big impact on the climate in North America.

[sylas]

John, you are comparing apples and oranges. I gave a quote for the immediate future. Your source is from back in May 2010.

It's a pretty safe bet that the current pause won't last. It's possible (though not at all certain) that 2014 will be a new record high. I definitely expect that one of the next five years will show a very clear record high global surface temperature anomaly. But we'll see....

That is an IPCC-based perspective ― if I be not mistaken; sylas can correct me if I am wrong in that regard.

It's a short term expectation based on ENSO and PDO tracking research by NOAA and others, in the immediate present. The five years is strictly my own ball park guess.

It is not IPCC based. The IPCC summarizes research by the whole scientific community, and tends to look at bigger scales than the year to year variation and short term expectations I am speaking of in my quote. In particular, estimating whether or not 2014 or 2015 will set a new record high global temperature anomaly isn't well suited to the slow and detailed pace of IPCC working groups.

On the other hand, in an extensive footnote in an article here (see footnote #10), an author lists four major factors that could indicate cooling rather than warming in the near future. I will excerpt from the article only the PDO factor, because that is the one that Roy Spencer identifies as the primary driver of natural climate change ― as opposed to IPCC AGW theory.

Let's go back to the proper reference for your footnote. It's an article from May 2010, in the Examiner. It is: Triple Crown of global cooling could pose serious threat to humanity

The author is Kirk Myers, a conspiracy nut with no background in science ... and it shows. He's a "30-year veteran of the advertising and public relations professions". Kirk proposes "a cabal of powerful elitists who seek to dominate and control the planet’s economy through a system of confiscatory taxation and Orwellian people controls" (his own words) being behind the notion of anthropogenic global warming.

The article is comically nonsensical; to be blunt I just don't worry about that level of denial. I don't see the point. I suspect Roy Spencer wouldn't go along with it either (though Spencer is... erratic). Anyhoo, for the time being I'm mostly inclined to point and laugh.

The bit you quote is not too bad; but it is out of date. For instance:

Source: Kirk Myers

... With the switch to a cool PDO, we’ve seen a change in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between El Nino (warm phase) and La Nina (cool phase) every few years. The recent strong El Nino that began in July 2009 is now transitioning to a La Nina, a sign of cooler temperatures ahead.

“We’re definitely headed towards La Nina conditions before summer is over, and we’re looking at a moderate to strong La Nina by fall and winter, which ... should bring us cooler temperatures over the next few years,” predicts Joe D’Aleo, founder of the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP) and the first director of meteorology at the Weather Channel.

© Copyright Original Source

Yep. We DID get La Nina conditions, from August 2010 through to June 2011, and again from October 2011 to March 2012. It wasn't enough to stop 2010 from tying with 2005 for the hottest year on record. El Nino was in effect for the first part of of 2010 which helped drive it to such a hot year. 2011 dropped sharply as the La Nina had its impact, though 2012 and 2013 both saw recovery and increasing temperatures. 2014 is a fairly safe bet to be hotter again than 2013, and (as I said) it might knock out 2005/2010 to set a new record high. We'll see.

So yes; your article's prediction of cooler La Nina conditions coming into effect sometime mid 2010 was correct. And it did lead to falling global temperature anomalies for the year 2011... after which they recovered and have been coming up again. My prediction for 2014/2015 is based on the notion that we are still going a bit further to a new El Nino in this recovery... but it's really uncertain. The formal position at present is of "El Nino Watch", which means 50% chance or better of El Nino developing. A few months ago it was "El Nino Alert", but that's been downgraded.

These are all short term variations and don't reveal anything much about longer trends.

Roy Spencer's notion that the PDO is sufficient on its own to be the major driver for temperatures over the twentieth century and up to the present is really silly. It's based on a very simple climate model (simple to the point of of near worthlessness) PLUS a ludicrous level of deliberate tuning of free parameters to non physical values in order to get his putative match. I started to write a reply on this when you brought it up earlier, but I let it slide. I may take it up again; it could be fun.

Cheers -- sylas

[John Reece]

Thanks, sylas!

I will still be keeping your projection in mind for the next 5 years, if I live that long.

Spencer says it is not possible to predict either global warming or global cooling, so on that basis alone I should have known better than to fall for the footnote re PDO.

Thanks again.

[sylas]

Thanks, sylas!

I will still be keeping your projection in mind for the next 5 years, if I live that long.

Spencer says it is not possible to predict either global warming or global cooling, so on that basis alone I should have known better than to fall for the footnote re PDO.

Thanks again.

You're welcome... and in the thread Something to save on my iMac desktop I have just made a suggestion for a friendly wager (TWeb to win in all cases) that can be resolved by June 2015, based on whether 2014 manages to rate at hottest year ever by the NASA GISS data set. There's a good chance that all three of us (you, me and Tweb) will still be alive then.

Cheers -- sylas