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  • #32
    2014 Global SST Not Looking Like a Record…So Far

    From Roy Spencer, PhD

    Conclusion:
    In any event, it appears there are some discrepancies regarding just how warm 2014 is shaping up to be. With a strong El Nino increasingly unlikely, I’m still betting that 2014 will not be a record warm year.

    Comment


    • #33
      Hi John, and others interested in this,

      I have been a bit inactive of late! One great advantage of this look at 2014 temperatures is that it motivates me to keep up involvement here! I confess I've been a bit overwhelmed by the flood of climate posts in this forum. I have started a number of replies and never completed them, to some posts. I don't like to just dash off a quick response, and don't like just to link to other work. So it takes me a while to write a reply, and sometimes I stall before finishing, or otherwise sidetracked by work or whatever. Sorry!

      Here's an update for 2014. A couple of weeks ago I'd have been inclined to agree with Roy on 2014 not looking like a record. He's appropriately cautious, saying "so far", which is what I'd be saying also.

      The numbers for August are now available, and they change things a bit. August 2014 was a hot one ... hottest August on record, in fact, for GISTEMP and (I think) the other various independent surface data sets provided. It pushes things up enough to make 2014 start to look like a credible prospect for a new record year again, after a much cooler July. The big issue is what ENSO will be doing.

      That remains very interesting -- and unusual. Sea surface temperatures have been high, but the atmospheric response of El Nino hasn't eventuated. The most recent report from ENSO tracking in Australia (published Sept 9) says:

      El Niño remains possible in 2014

      Issued on Tuesday 9 September 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

      Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, ENSO remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least double the normal risk of an El Niño developing by the end of the year.

      Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average. A late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific.

      The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

      Originally, I thought 2014 was a likely prospect for a new record hottest year because EL Nino might develop. What recent observations seem to be showing is that 2014 might even manage to break a record without a full El Nino developing. The much ballyhooed "warming hiatus" is a strictly surface phenomenon. The Earth has continued to heat up; the thing is that most of the heat goes into the ocean, and what the atmosphere does depends in large part on ocean circulation effects and how the heat we are gaining gets distributed. EL Nino generally corresponds to a large dump of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. It means surface warming shows something of a staircase effect, being bumped up at intervals. Earth continues to gain heat all the time -- there is certain no indication at all of cooling going on; all measurements continue to show Earth still heating up. The point is that this heat gets dumped out into the atmosphere somewhat piecemeal, so surface records show plenty of pauses and rises over the last sixty years; the recent slowdown in surface warming has been a substantial one. But even though there is slow down, it doesn't amount to cooling and so you can still, in time, get new records even without a big El Nino spike.

      But the ongoing warming is sufficiently strong that a full scale El Nino dump may not be needed to push 2014 over the line for a new record hottest year. Just plain old ongoing warming will be enough. As long as the next four months continue to show that level of anomaly (0.70 C) then 2014 will be a record. That's a big ask. It would require the next four months to be (almost) the hottest Sept-Dec on record. The thing is... that's actually possible. The warmer surface waters and the not quite El Nino make that a real prospect.

      So stay tuned. The planet is continuing to heat up, with most of the heat (as always) going to the ocean; as long as that continues (and it will; there's no credible prospect at all of that changing anytime soon) the surface temperatures will be following along with new hottest years cropping up again, and again, and again. 2014 is pretty sure to be one of the hottest years on record. Whether it beats out the current record holders (2010) is likely to go down to the wire.

      Cheers -- Sylas

      PS. I'm happy for this to move to another thread, if that is deemed appropriate. And if we need to bribe someone... that's already done. There's $50 for Theology Web in this whatever happens!

      Comment


      • #34
        Originally posted by sylas View Post
        Hi John, and others interested in this,

        I have been a bit inactive of late! One great advantage of this look at 2014 temperatures is that it motivates me to keep up involvement here! I confess I've been a bit overwhelmed by the flood of climate posts in this forum. I have started a number of replies and never completed them, to some posts. I don't like to just dash off a quick response, and don't like just to link to other work. So it takes me a while to write a reply, and sometimes I stall before finishing, or otherwise sidetracked by work or whatever. Sorry!

        Here's an update for 2014. A couple of weeks ago I'd have been inclined to agree with Roy on 2014 not looking like a record. He's appropriately cautious, saying "so far", which is what I'd be saying also.

        The numbers for August are now available, and they change things a bit. August 2014 was a hot one ... hottest August on record, in fact, for GISTEMP and (I think) the other various independent surface data sets provided. It pushes things up enough to make 2014 start to look like a credible prospect for a new record year again, after a much cooler July. The big issue is what ENSO will be doing.

        That remains very interesting -- and unusual. Sea surface temperatures have been high, but the atmospheric response of El Nino hasn't eventuated. The most recent report from ENSO tracking in Australia (published Sept 9) says:

        El Niño remains possible in 2014

        Issued on Tuesday 9 September 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

        Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, ENSO remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least double the normal risk of an El Niño developing by the end of the year.

        Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average. A late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific.

        The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

        Originally, I thought 2014 was a likely prospect for a new record hottest year because EL Nino might develop. What recent observations seem to be showing is that 2014 might even manage to break a record without a full El Nino developing. The much ballyhooed "warming hiatus" is a strictly surface phenomenon. The Earth has continued to heat up; the thing is that most of the heat goes into the ocean, and what the atmosphere does depends in large part on ocean circulation effects and how the heat we are gaining gets distributed. EL Nino generally corresponds to a large dump of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. It means surface warming shows something of a staircase effect, being bumped up at intervals. Earth continues to gain heat all the time -- there is certain no indication at all of cooling going on; all measurements continue to show Earth still heating up. The point is that this heat gets dumped out into the atmosphere somewhat piecemeal, so surface records show plenty of pauses and rises over the last sixty years; the recent slowdown in surface warming has been a substantial one. But even though there is slow down, it doesn't amount to cooling and so you can still, in time, get new records even without a big El Nino spike.

        But the ongoing warming is sufficiently strong that a full scale El Nino dump may not be needed to push 2014 over the line for a new record hottest year. Just plain old ongoing warming will be enough. As long as the next four months continue to show that level of anomaly (0.70 C) then 2014 will be a record. That's a big ask. It would require the next four months to be (almost) the hottest Sept-Dec on record. The thing is... that's actually possible. The warmer surface waters and the not quite El Nino make that a real prospect.

        So stay tuned. The planet is continuing to heat up, with most of the heat (as always) going to the ocean; as long as that continues (and it will; there's no credible prospect at all of that changing anytime soon) the surface temperatures will be following along with new hottest years cropping up again, and again, and again. 2014 is pretty sure to be one of the hottest years on record. Whether it beats out the current record holders (2010) is likely to go down to the wire.

        Cheers -- Sylas

        PS. I'm happy for this to move to another thread, if that is deemed appropriate. And if we need to bribe someone... that's already done. There's $50 for Theology Web in this whatever happens!
        Very interesting!

        Thanks, sylas.

        Comment


        • #35
          Roy vs sylas

          The last post above by sylas demonstrates that only a scientist is competent to offer a response that is of comparable quality. So, I turn to "Roy", as sylas charmingly referred to Dr. Roy Spencer in his last post above.
          What if the Global Warming “Pause” was “Fast Forward” Instead?

          September 15th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

          I’d like to take you through a little thought experiment.

          We all know that global warming has been on hiatus – set on pause – however you like to characterize the lack of significant warming, for over 15 years. Depending on how you do the statistics, the vast majority of the climate models used to guide our energy policy have over-predicted the surface warming trend since the satellite record began way back in 1979.

          Oh, and those aren’t just failed forecasts…they are failed hindcasts. Even knowing the answer, the climate modelers can’t explain why the Earth hasn’t warmed as fast as it was supposed to.

          The most cited potential reason for this unexpected inconvenience is that the oceans have been taking up the extra heat and replacing it with cooler water from the ocean depths. In that scenario, the natural ocean surface-cooling mechanism now in progress (if it exists) will eventually go back to normal, and surface warming will return with a vengeance. Just you wait and see.

          But what if this supposed natural ocean fluctuation, which is supposedly cooling the surface, was reversed?

          What if warming was set on fast forward, rather than pause? What if surface warming was progressing faster than 95% of the climate models had predicted, rather than slower than 95% of the models? How would the global warming establishment be playing it?

          After watching the IPCC crowd for the last 25+ years, I feel pretty confident they would be falling all over themselves declaring “it’s worse than we thought!” They would be adjusting the sensitivity of their models to produce even more warming.

          Yet, they would never substantially reduce the climate sensitivity of their models to produce less warming, as seen in nature. In other words, if warming hasn’t materialized, then we must have faith that it will eventually appear – because the climate system must be really sensitive…

          So that the climate researchers’ lives have meaning.

          But…if there happens to be *faster* warming than expected, well, the experts would be all too willing to adjust their models to have even greater climate sensitivity.

          This is a reflection of the fact that the global warming establishment is biased toward high climate sensitivity. It is a specific example of the tendency of natural scientists to view nature as fragile, full of tipping points and hobgoblins.

          That they fancy themselves as objective is embarrassing to me. No, I don’t consider myself completely objective either. But at least I can entertain alternative possibilities regarding the sensitivity of the climate system. If a scientist entertains anything that smacks of “skepticism”, however, they are not allowed to play in the IPCC sandbox.

          Both of these scenarios: (1) the lack of significant warming, or (2) rapid warming, could happen with a climate system that warms exactly the same amount in the next 100 years (that is, has the same climate sensitivity). The difference is the timing of natural warming and cooling events, which can last two or three decades.

          But it is unsettling how our feelings about climate change (and the political rhetoric and policy changes) can waver based upon what happens over only a year or two. Yet, the rate of both surface and deep ocean warming since the 1950s, after accounting for natural El Nino and La Nina fluctuations, suggests no cause for alarm.

          If faster warming does resume in the coming months and years, it’s important to stay focused on the amount of warming…over the long term. Thinking and talking in qualitative terms, like record warm years, can be used to fool and manipulate people’s emotions on the subject.

          Even a new “record warmest year”, year after year, is not that significant if the total warming ends up being only 1 deg. C more over the next 100 years.

          And until the models can explain what happened in the past they should not be trusted for guiding policy into the future.
          Last edited by John Reece; 09-19-2014, 10:42 AM.

          Comment


          • #36
            Originally posted by John Reece View Post
            The last post above by sylas demonstrates that only a scientist is competent to offer a response that is of comparable quality. So, I turn to "Roy", as sylas charmingly referred to Dr. Roy Spencer in his last post above.
            This isn't really a response to anything I wrote; it goes into a lot more general issues that are entirely beside the point of what I wrote here. I'm going to keep this thread for the simple matter of following along what is happening short term, and not get into a big discussion of other aspects of climate science here, if that's okay.

            However, I do plan to be commenting further on Dr Spencer's recent work on matters of warming and sensitivity, in the more appropriate general purpose thread set aside for that purpose. This will include the matter of sensitivity, the role of natural internal variations, and the magnitudes of various forcing influences. The first two issues (sensitivity, and a putative role for internal climate variability) are ones that Dr Spencer has written about recently. There's quite a story in that; and I resist the temptation to summarize here. If this thread is going to go that general, then it should be merged with the other climate thread.

            Do let's keep this thread with the limited focus; and I'll take up the implicit challenge in the other.

            BTW. No offense is intended with using first names. Scientists and PhDs often tend to be informal when speaking together. I prefer to go by my own first name in a friendly discussion as well, without using academic titles. We are not, in this thread, dealing with big issues of complex climate science or professional differences. It's a low key friendly style of engagement where I agree with Dr Spencer's estimation -- though noting that August temperatures have changed that a bit to give more life to the notion that 2014 might be a new record. Still a bit of a long shot, but we'll see. The first name just seemed to fit better to the post style as I was writing. However, I'll try to avoid that in future, if you prefer.

            Cheers -- Dr Sylas :-)
            Last edited by sylas; 09-20-2014, 05:03 AM. Reason: spelling, fix aliteration

            Comment


            • #37
              Originally posted by sylas View Post
              This isn't really a response to anything I wrote; it goes into a lot more general issues that are entirely beside the point of what I wrote here. I'm going to keep this thread for the simple matter of following along what is happening short term, and not get into a big discussion of other aspects of climate science here, if that's okay.

              However, I do plan to be commenting further on Dr Spencer's recent work on matters of warming and sensitivity, in the more appropriate general purpose thread set aside for that purpose. This will include the matter of sensitivity, the role of natural internal variations, and the magnitudes of various forcing influences. The first two issues (sensitivity, and a putative role for internal climate variability) are ones that Dr Spencer has written about recently. There's quite a story in that; and I resist the temptation to summarize here. If this thread is going to go that general, then it should be merged with the other climate thread.

              Do let's keep this thread with the limited focus; and I'll take up the implicit challenge in the other.

              BTW. No offense is intended with using first names. Scientists and PhDs often tend to be informal when speaking together. I prefer to go by my own first name in a friendly discussion as well, without using academic titles. We are not, in this thread, dealing with big issues of complex climate science or professional differences. It's a low key friendly style of engagement where I agree with Dr Spencer's estimation -- though noting that August temperatures have changed that a bit to give more life to the notion that 2014 might be a new record. Still a bit of a long shot, but we'll see. The first name just seemed to fit better to the post style as I was writing. However, I'll try to avoid that in future, if you prefer.

              Cheers -- Dr Sylas :-)
              ― re the signature.

              Well said, as usual.

              Of course, Spencer's post was not a reply to what you wrote; however, I do think that what he wrote is relevant to what consensus-scientists make of record high temperatures in modern times, and thus to my mind it was generally relevant to your post as well as to this thread.

              I was not at all offended by your use of "Roy"; I saw it as charming and amusing ― as in the humor of your signature, Dr Sylas.
              Last edited by John Reece; 09-20-2014, 10:59 AM.

              Comment


              • #38
                I have been slack about TheologyWeb now for nearly 2 months. I will join in again in more depth at some point; for now I'm just using this thread to be sure I at least keep up monthly posts! Which I will continue regardless of results.

                September figures are released, and they continue to be more of what August figures indicated. 2014 continues to shape up as a hot year and still stands a credible chance of being the hottest year ever on record since direct measurements have been available... and still without an El Nino event showing up. That's interesting in itself, since I was thinking it would need to be El Nino to set the record.

                Sept anomaly is +0.77C in the GIStemp dataset. This is the hottest September on record; 2005 comes next with +0.73.

                The mean anomaly to date for the year is +0.65, and the hottest ever anomaly for a year is +0.66 (in 2005). Anomalies of +0.70 and more for the next three months are needed for 2014 to be the new hottest year ever. I'm thinking that is actually quite likely at this point.

                El Nino remains elusive; but the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are particularly warm. So El Nino remains something like a 50/50 chance of developing before the end of the year.

                Looking further ahead, 2015 is likely a year to watch as well, because the very short term trend is up and the still possibly looming El Nino, even if it actually arrives in 2014, would have a stronger effect on 2015 than 2014.

                Looking to longer term still, where decadal scale natural variation such as ENSO is not so relevant, the key is almost certainly what is going on with the ocean, which is where the bulk of extra heat inevitably goes when the planet heats up, simply because of the large heat capacity of water. Unfortunately, it's a lot harder to measure temperature through the ocean by comparison with surface temperatures. We have to measure a profile of temperature down a couple of kilometers, and 70% of Earth is covered by ocean. It's really only since 2004 that there has been adequate coverage (the Argo floats program) to get those measurements, and they are still not nearly as complete as surface temperature coverage.

                Even though individual years, whether they blow hot or cold, don't reveal long term trend very well, looking closely at individual years DOES help give a better idea of where extra heat is going; and this also is important for determining if the recent slowdown in rates of surface warming are just part of natural variation, or a real indication that the long term trend is less than had been thought. I'm hoping for the latter, but observations trump desires in this so I continue to watch with interest.

                Cheers all -- sylas

                Comment


                • #39
                  Initial figures for October 2014 have just come out; and it's more of the same.

                  October 2014 ties with October 2005 as the hottest October on record, with an anomaly of +0.76 C above the 1951-1980 climate norm. This now makes three successive months where we have set a new record global anomaly for that month, by the NASA GISS dataset.

                  An anomaly of +0.7 for the next two months would make 2014 the hottest year on record. To date, the hottest year on record is a two way tie between 2005 and 2010, with Jan-Dec anomaly of +0.66. The mean anomaly for Jan-Oct of 2014 is +0.664. So 2014 is going to end up somewhere from +0.65 to +0.68

                  If the anomalies for Nov Dec take a bit of a dive (as they did in 2010, for example) then 2014 won't be the hottest year on record. It's still too close to call.

                  At this point, we can say almost for certain that when the 2014 figures come in, the three hottest years on record will be 2005, 2010 and 2014, with negligible difference between those three, and 2007 coming close behind for fourth place with +0.62

                  Comment


                  • #40
                    I'll be obtaining November figures soon... but now is a good time to add a reminder to this thread about the relevance of this focus on 2014. Quoting Gavin Schmidt, who is the head of the GISS climate science group, which produces the dataset I have been using.

                    Source: Rising Temperatures: A Month Versus a Decade


                    You may have heard that September 2014 was the warmest September ever recorded and that the past six months were the hottest April through September in 130 years of records. NASA Earth Observatory readers sometimes ask: How much does it matter when a monthly or yearly temperature record is broken? And where does global temperature data come from?

                    ...

                    “When you look at all the red in that map, there is no doubt that April through September was unusually warm in most of the world, but it’s the decadal trend that is more significant,” said Gavin Schmidt, GISS director. “Earth has experienced rapid warming in the last few decades, and the most recent decade was the warmest of all. What has happened so far in 2014 extends this ongoing trend. But in the context of climate change, it does not make sense to try to derive much meaning from a single month—or, for that matter, even a single year.”

                    Source online: here

                    © Copyright Original Source



                    It's looking likely that 2014 WILL be a record hottest ever measured year; though we won't really know until about another two months. Is this the end of the famous "17 year pause"? No doubt many people will be saying this early in 2015, but now is the time to keep your skeptical hat on... reading too much into one year, or one month, is essentially the same error as treating the pause itself as a stop to global warming.

                    A hot 2014 will be a part of the ongoing heating trend, but it's only in combination with lots of other years that we can see the effects of an enhanced greenhouse effect without being too much dominated by short term variability (like ENSO).

                    Comment


                    • #41
                      Initial figures for November have just come in, with an anomaly of +0.65 in the NASA dataset at GISS. This is just barely enough to remain on track for a new record in 2014; but given that so far December does not seem to be running particularly hot, that outcome is now looking a lot less likely. The most probable result seems to be for a dead heat with 2010 for the hottest ever, with a good chance of being 0.01 higher, and a reasonable chance of being 0.01 lower.

                      As is usual, temperatures in recent months have been revised somewhat. The temperature anomaly values are calculated from information taken from thousands of weather stations around the world, and these are sent in to the central GHCN repository a bit erratically, and always with a few needing corrections subsequently. This is why back at the start of this thread I said that we should be looking at the value available by the end of June 2015. That gives six months for all the calculations, revisions and corrections to settle down.

                      Anyhoo... as the dataset stands right now, the hottest ever values for August, September and October are all set in 2014; although the actual numbers have been revised a little since I looked last month. November, by contrast, is only the 9th hottest November on record (beaten by 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013). It's still well above the hottest ever 20th century November, which was +0.61 in 1997.

                      To get a new record in 2014 would require the December anomaly to be +0.64; if December ends up being anything from +0.52 to +0.63 then 2014 will be a dead heat with 2010. Bear in mind that there can still be small revisions to any of the calculated values in the dataset, so this can change also.

                      I'll be making two more posts to this thread; and will abandon it after that. I'll post in mid January 2015 when a December anomaly first becomes available, and then again in early July 2015, when we can expect the result to be pretty stable against late revisions in the underlying raw weather station data.

                      As always; remember that looking at one month, or one year, isn't really a sensible way to look at climate trends. Short term variation is of real scientific interest, so looking at individual years is important scientifically for that purpose; but it doesn't tell you much about what is likely to happen going on towards the future.
                      Last edited by sylas; 12-14-2014, 10:44 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #42
                        Initial results are in: December recorded an anomaly of +0.72, which is the second hottest on record, and this makes 2014 the hottest year on record (for this NASA dataset). The 2014 anomaly is +0.68, beating out the +0.66 of 2010, which was the previous record. It takes time to finalize these numbers, as they depend on many thousands of individual weather station records; some of which are still actually coming in and some of which may yet alter. It's pretty normal for numbers to be adjusted up or down in coming months; which is why I specified we should look at the data in June 2015. However, such small adjustments can only realistically be by a small amount; perhaps 0.01 Since the record has a margin of 0.02 it looks pretty definite that 2014 is the new hottest ever year recorded for the GISS dataset.

                        Couple of points to reiterate.

                        First, and most importantly, global warming does not mean every year is hotter than the last; it deals with a longer term trend ... and one year means little for long term trends. As the planet continues to heat up, we are going to get new record hottest years; for instance, records were set in 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2014. This will continue; but we can't say how often such records will be set, or how long until the next. That 2014 happens to be a record is mainly useful as a reality check on claims that global warming has stopped, or paused. It hasn't. But to get serious about the data, you still can't base that on one record year. The real scientific significance of a new record is minimal.

                        Second, the NASA dataset is not the only dataset. There are a number of other independent calculations by other groups. They all show 2014 as hot, and most show a new record; but probably not all of them. We'll see. The accuracy of the numbers is less than the margin of the record.

                        Cheers -- sylas

                        Comment

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