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Still No Global Warming For 17 Years 10 Months

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  • #31
    Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
    It is precisely because business as usual is at risk that climate change has to be taken seriously. The problem to be solved is sustainability.
    What if the most revolutionary thing is NOT taking it seriously, in the most public fashion possible? What if business as usual was never sustainable to begin with? What if grad school was all a carefully constructed set of lies?

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Epoetker View Post
      What if the most revolutionary thing is NOT taking it seriously, in the most public fashion possible? What if business as usual was never sustainable to begin with? What if grad school was all a carefully constructed set of lies?
      Paragraph 5 -
      “The charge that universities are directly responsible for almost all the violence in the world today, for example, strikes me as essentially accurate.”

      Approximately Paragraph 60 -
      “I actually haven't even started to explain how pernicious the university phenomenon is. For example, I haven't justified my claim that they are responsible for most of the violence in the world today. Please remain on this channel for further eccentric and informative broadcasts.”

      No thanks Curtis.
      “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
      “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
      “not all there” - you know who you are

      Comment


      • #33
        Direct measured evidence:
        Ice sheets in the Arctic have extended in area, but volumes have still decreased.
        The same applies in the Antarctic.
        Sea levels continue to rise.
        Total tundra area continues to reduce

        Temperatures have stabilised, but the conditions that correspond to global warming haven't abated.
        Between 4 degrees C and 0, liquid water volumes don't change. As temperature increases above 4 degrees, water will increase in volume with increasing temperature. As ice water increases in temperature, it will affect sea levels - and in increasing measure even if no further ice water enters the system. But for the fact that tundra area continues to decrease, that fact might indicate that current sea level rises are hang overs from past warming.

        Speculation
        Climate models failed to take into account the effect of gigalitres of ice water being dumped into the seas.
        That water balances the factors contributing to global warming, and will continue to do so until imbalance again arises.
        The failure to take into account the effect of super cold water entering the sea in large volumes resulted in wildly inaccurate projections.

        Opinion
        Human factors in global warming are real but trivial - Global warming was under way for a long time before any human activity could have made a contribution.
        Last edited by tabibito; 08-06-2014, 04:44 AM.
        1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
        Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
        .
        If Palm Sunday really was a Sunday, Christ was crucified on a Thursday (which could be adduced from the gospels anyway).

        "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by tabibito View Post
          Opinion
          Human factors in global warming are real but trivial - Global warming was under way for a long time before any human activity could have made a contribution.
          Is the recent rate of change also trivial?
          “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
          “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
          “not all there” - you know who you are

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
            Is the recent rate of change also trivial?
            I'm not saying that the recent rate of change is trivial, but that the human contribution is trivial. Similar sharp rises (and drops) are a matter of geological record.


            Where did I put that pic???
            1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
            Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
            .
            If Palm Sunday really was a Sunday, Christ was crucified on a Thursday (which could be adduced from the gospels anyway).

            "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by tabibito View Post
              I'm not saying that the recent rate of change is trivial, but that the human contribution is trivial. Similar sharp rises (and drops) are a matter of geological record.
              It's that simple.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                I'm not saying that the recent rate of change is trivial, but that the human contribution is trivial. Similar sharp rises (and drops) are a matter of geological record.
                Changes in global temperature have causes. This applies for those in the geological record as well as those in the present.

                Thermodynamics is pretty basic physics. The Earth is a complex system with a lot going on, and it isn't always easy to sort out causes and effects in the past; but that isn't because we need some kind of new physics. It's good old conventional physics applied to a complicated system.

                One of the major factors is Earth's atmosphere. A crucial part of that is the greenhouse effect; without the capacity of certain gases in our atmosphere to interaction with infrared radiation, Earth would be a world frozen solid. And for Earth, one of the really crucial gases is carbon dioxide. That's just basic physics. Another very important gas is water vapour; indeed water vapour provides most of the greenhouse effect which keeps our planet at a livable temperature. But water can precipitate in and out of our atmosphere, which measure that it doesn't work very well as a driver of changes. Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, is strongly implicated in many of the major climate changes which are apparent over Earth's long prehistory. This isn't remotely controversial, scientifically speaking.

                And in the present, carbon dioxide levels are changing drastically -- from human influences. Other factors have a part to play in the past; in the present the particular driving factor is fossil fuel burning. That too, is a pretty basic fact of life.

                Carbon dioxide levels have changes in the past, before humans were around on the scene. Is that a reason for thinking humans are not the cause of rising CO2 levels in the present? Of course not. We really are changing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

                Carbon dioxide levels have been important to climate changes in the past (as best science can tell). The way this works is pretty straightforward thermodynamics; not in any doubt at all. The complexities arise in all the knock on effects regional factors in a complex world; which makes quantifying things hard work. But the simple consequence of rising temperature from rising CO2 was known from the nineteenth century and is now well understood.

                So if changing CO2 is seen as causing climate change in the past (and it most certainly is!) then doesn't that figure now also? Of course it does.

                This is no scientific or evidential basis at all for concluding that human factors are trivial. The evidence is that they are crucial for the changes happening at present.

                Cheers -- sylas

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                  I'm not saying that the recent rate of change is trivial, but that the human contribution is trivial. Similar sharp rises (and drops) are a matter of geological record.
                  Where did I put that pic???
                  Which geological record are you referring to?
                  “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                  “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                  “not all there” - you know who you are

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    CLIMATE GRAPH.jpg

                    This has the "recent" temperature rises (section marked with the red curve underneath rising from left to right) mirrored and laid alongside past temperature falls. (red curve dropping from left to right). The black sections are what was projected, almost covering the red of actual recordings.

                    Also, argument is that CO2 levels show an historic pattern of increasing after temperatures rise. I haven't been able to confirm that argument.
                    1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
                    Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                    .
                    If Palm Sunday really was a Sunday, Christ was crucified on a Thursday (which could be adduced from the gospels anyway).

                    "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Greenland Ice Graph.jpg

                      This is the graph of Greenland temperatures - only one location in the world, but illustrative. Current temperatures nowhere near as high as they were about 900 years ago.
                      1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
                      Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                      .
                      If Palm Sunday really was a Sunday, Christ was crucified on a Thursday (which could be adduced from the gospels anyway).

                      "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

                      Comment


                      • #41


                        And records from Alaska show much the same. Temperatures now are around the level that they were 400 - 500 years ago, and quite a margin lower than they were 900 years ago.
                        Last edited by tabibito; 08-06-2014, 01:45 PM.
                        1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
                        Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                        .
                        If Palm Sunday really was a Sunday, Christ was crucified on a Thursday (which could be adduced from the gospels anyway).

                        "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                          Also, argument is that CO2 levels show an historic pattern of increasing after temperatures rise. I haven't been able to confirm that argument.
                          This is a reference to changes as we go in and out of the ice ages.

                          The timing is not completely clear; but in general it seems credible (and also makes good physical sense) that temperatures start to rise before CO2 starts to rise, during the ice age cycles of the quaternary period (the last 2.8 million years).

                          In any case, the actual changes most certainly overlap; that is, CO2 and temperatures rise together. The issue is which one starts to rise first.

                          It makes good sense to me that temperature will start to rise first. We have strong evidence that the changes with ice ages (more properly "glacials") over the last 2.8 million years are linked to changes in Earth's orbit; which in turn leads to change in seasonal insolation (energy from the Sun). The physical problem is that the changes are TINY; much too small by themselves to adequately explain the temperature changes involved.

                          The key is feedbacks. Warmer oceans are less above to hold dissolved carbon dioxide. So as waters begin to warm, there is also a transfer of CO2 from the ocean into the atmosphere. And when you add CO2 to the atmosphere you get an additional feedback effect.

                          Another really important feedback in these events is the albedo changes. As glaciers retreat, less sunlight is reflected and more is absorbed; which ALSO leads to more warming.

                          These two feedbacks together are major players in amplifying the small effects of insolation change and driving the large temperatures changes we see.

                          Physically, the extra heating from increased CO2 is crucial for explaining the warming as we move out of glacial periods. It's inevitable from physics; the trick as always is to adequately quantify everything that goes in a complex system. But heating from increased CO2 is most certainly a part of it.

                          That CO2 starts to increase somewhat after temperatures start to rise is no particular surprise; since CO2 is not the trigger for change. Orbital variation is the trigger. But once you get the warming, and the CO2 release from the ocean, and then more warming, you end up with the two increasing together (which is precisely what we see in the geological record), with the CO2 increase starting a little bit later (which might be what we see; it makes sense, but it's still hard to nail down timing; on geological scales they are pretty close to lock step.

                          In the present, CO2 is increasing in both the ocean and atmosphere; because the source at present is transfer of carbon from fossil fuel deposits. So yes, humans really are changing the atmosphere -- and also the chemistry of the ocean. Ocean pH is measurably decreasing as carbon levels increase. This is a human effect. With 7 billion plus of us we really do have the capability to change the face of the planet substantially, in many ways. In land cover, in climate, in ocean chemistry, in atmospheric composition.

                          Other factors have worked to change them in the past; which means they can change. And now, we are changing them as well.

                          Cheers -- sylas

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                            This is the graph of Greenland temperatures - only one location in the world, but illustrative. Current temperatures nowhere near as high as they were about 900 years ago.
                            For Greenland, yes. But it is certainly not "illustrative" in the sense of being typical for the whole planet. It isn't typical at all; it is very much regional; a similar (weaker) pattern holds in Europe; a likely factor is ocean currents along the Gulf Stream. It most certainly is not a global pattern.

                            Cheers -- sylas

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Not arguing against that - I am satisfied that human activity is contributing and probably accelerating the process - but the question is trying to separate the significance of the human contribution. This current rising cycle started before the 20th century. (I think)
                              1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
                              Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                              .
                              If Palm Sunday really was a Sunday, Christ was crucified on a Thursday (which could be adduced from the gospels anyway).

                              "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                                [ATTACH=CONFIG]1371[/ATTACH]
                                This is the graph of Greenland temperatures - only one location in the world, but illustrative. Current temperatures nowhere near as high as they were about 900 years ago.
                                Okay, but what do you conclude from that chart?
                                This seems to be referring to the same study:
                                http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/about_ba...ry.php?id=2040
                                “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                                “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                                “not all there” - you know who you are

                                Comment

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