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Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change

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  • Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change

    Excerpt from an article in The Wall Street Journal:
    It was the scientific skeptics who bucked the 'consensus' and said the Earth was round.

    By RICHARD MCNIDER And JOHN CHRISTY

    Updated Feb. 19, 2014 7:31 p.m. ET

    In a Feb. 16 speech in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry assailed climate-change skeptics as members of the "Flat Earth Society" for doubting the reality of catastrophic climate change. He said, "We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists" and "extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts."

    But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts? In ancient times, the notion of a flat Earth was the scientific consensus, and it was only a minority who dared question this belief. We are among today's scientists who are skeptical about the so-called consensus on climate change. Does that make us modern-day Flat Earthers, as Mr. Kerry suggests, or are we among those who defy the prevailing wisdom to declare that the world is round?

    Most of us who are skeptical about the dangers of climate change actually embrace many of the facts that people like Bill Nye, the ubiquitous TV "science guy," say we ignore. The two fundamental facts are that carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased due to the burning of fossil fuels, and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a greenhouse gas, trapping heat before it can escape into space.

    What is not a known fact is by how much the Earth's atmosphere will warm in response to this added carbon dioxide. The warming numbers most commonly advanced are created by climate computer models built almost entirely by scientists who believe in catastrophic global warming. The rate of warming forecast by these models depends on many assumptions and engineering to replicate a complex world in tractable terms, such as how water vapor and clouds will react to the direct heat added by carbon dioxide or the rate of heat uptake, or absorption, by the oceans.

    We might forgive these modelers if their forecasts had not been so consistently and spectacularly wrong. From the beginning of climate modeling in the 1980s, these forecasts have, on average, always overstated the degree to which the Earth is warming compared with what we see in the real climate.

    For instance [snip (remainder of article is behind pay-wall, unless free look offer appears via link at top of this page) -JR].
    Last edited by John Reece; 06-22-2014, 09:44 AM.

  • #2
    Climate models are checked by hindcasting. If they accurately 'predict' past trends they will do the same for future trends. They already work well but models continue to improve with increasing computing power and better scientific understanding of climate mechanisms.
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm
    “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
    “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
    “not all there” - you know who you are

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm not sure just what the author means by "ancient times," but the fact that the Earth is round was known for well over 2000 years. Just saying.
      Learn to do right; seek justice. Defend the oppressed. Take up the cause of the fatherless; plead the case of the widow.--Isaiah 1:17

      I don't think that all forms o[f] slavery are inherently immoral.--seer

      Comment


      • #4
        Climate change models may not have been accurate after all as study finds most widely overestimated global warming

        By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
        PUBLISHED: 17:23 EST, 12 September 2013 | UPDATED: 14:08 EST, 18 September 2013

        Predictions on global warming trends may not be as accurate as at first their studies suggest.

        A new study in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming.

        Out of 117 predictions, only three were accurate. The other 114 overestimated the amount by which the Earth's temperature rose.

        The predictions were roughly twice the amount of global warming than had actually occurred.

        Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz35NyG8JNd
        Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

        Comment


        • #5
          See the executive summary for climate model improvements since IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 - 2007).
          http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima...er09_FINAL.pdf
          “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
          “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
          “not all there” - you know who you are

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by John Reece View Post
            Climate change models may not have been accurate after all as study finds most widely overestimated global warming

            By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
            PUBLISHED: 17:23 EST, 12 September 2013 | UPDATED: 14:08 EST, 18 September 2013

            Predictions on global warming trends may not be as accurate as at first their studies suggest.

            A new study in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming.

            Out of 117 predictions, only three were accurate. The other 114 overestimated the amount by which the Earth's temperature rose.

            The predictions were roughly twice the amount of global warming than had actually occurred.

            Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz35NyG8JNd
            Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
            Follow the money. Who is getting rich on "Climate Change" and who is using it to gain power? Pretty clear to me.
            Micah 6:8 He has told you, O man, what is good; and what does the LORD require of you but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by John Reece View Post
              Excerpt from an article in The Wall Street Journal:
              [indent]It was the scientific skeptics who bucked the 'consensus' and said the Earth was round.

              By RICHARD MCNIDER And JOHN CHRISTY...But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts? In ancient times, the notion of a flat Earth was the scientific consensus, and it was only a minority who dared question this belief.
              Humans have known that the earth is round since about 5,000 BCE. The argument was over size, not shape. Who is Richard McNider and John Christy? Certainly not scientists or historians. Or, were they referring to stone-age man?

              I think the issue is not whether or not climate change is real - it is - it is over how much of it is mankind's fault, and what - if anything - we can do about it? Wind turbines on farm land will NOT do anything to solve climate change as long as we continue to buy cheap crap from Wal-Mart manufactured in coal-belching factories in China.

              It is only making people like the Walton clan and T. Boone Pickens very wealthy.

              NORM
              When the missionaries came to Africa they had the Bible and we had the land. They said 'Let us pray.' We closed our eyes. When we opened them we had the Bible and they had the land. - Bishop Desmond Tutu

              Comment


              • #8
                "Dark Money" Funds Climate Change Denial Effort
                http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...denial-effort/
                Why Christians Can't Take Climate Change Seriously
                http://www.huffingtonpost.com/g-elij...b_3668179.html
                How the Religious Right Is Fueling Climate Change Denial
                http://www.alternet.org/environment/...-change-denial
                The combination of bad science, bad education, conservative politics and bad religion is turning the next generation away from Christianity.
                “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                “not all there” - you know who you are

                Comment


                • #9
                  The article is obviously biased and agenda driven. The beliefs of those who believed in a flat earth were not based on science, but on ignorance. To equate the few contemporary scientists who today deny climate change, who contend against the majority of contemporary scientists on this issue, with the scientist of the past who contended, not against a majority of scientists of the time, but against the general concensus of the ignorant population of the time, concerning the shape of the earth, is an obvious agenda driven spin.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by JimL (color added by JR)
                    The article is obviously biased and agenda driven. The beliefs of those who believed in a flat earth were not based on science, but on ignorance. To equate the few contemporary scientists who today deny climate change, who contend against the majority of contemporary scientists on this issue, with the scientist of the past who contended, not against a majority of scientists of the time, but against the general concensus of the ignorant population of the time, concerning the shape of the earth, is an obvious agenda driven spin.
                    That's an interesting and thoughtful comment.

                    Do you believe that the United Nations' IPCC and President Obama have not been pursuing an agenda?
                    As The Wall Street Journal observed on Feb. 21, while Heartland’s budget for the NIPCC (with which John Christy, co-author of the OP article is associated) this year totals $388,000 [divided among a few staff members + 382 "experts" in various fields], that compares to $6.5 million for the UN’s IPCC, and $2.5 billion that President Obama’s budget commits for research into “the global changes that have resulted primarily from global over-dependence on fossil fuels.”
                    Last edited by John Reece; 06-22-2014, 07:55 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      It looks like NASA and NOAA have actually been fudging the numbers, this is neither good or honest:


                      http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2...the-year-2000/
                      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by seer View Post
                        It looks like NASA and NOAA have actually been fudging the numbers, this is neither good or honest:
                        http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2...the-year-2000/
                        The us/us graphs look a bit like the us/global graphs here: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/
                        Read on.
                        “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                        “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                        “not all there” - you know who you are

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
                          The us/us graphs look a bit like the us/global graphs here: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/
                          Read on.
                          But this is the problem:

                          Right after the year 2000, NASA and NOAA dramatically altered US climate history, making the past much colder and the present much warmer. The animation below shows how NASA cooled 1934 and warmed 1998, to make 1998 the hottest year in US history instead of 1934. This alteration turned a long term cooling trend since 1930 into a warming trend.
                          You can see the two different charts in my link, they fudged the numbers.
                          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by seer View Post
                            But this is the problem:
                            You can see the two different charts in my link, they fudged the numbers.
                            I do see them but they look suspicious to me - very different at the right hand end. What are the source reports?
                            “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                            “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                            “not all there” - you know who you are

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
                              I do see them but they look suspicious to me - very different at the right hand end. What are the source reports?
                              What? He is using the NASA and NOAA grafts. The second graft in the link cycles between the graft they had right before 2000, and a more recent graft - the difference in the climate history of the US in the past 100 years between the grafts is obvious.
                              Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                              Comment

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