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Global Warming:Where's The Beef?

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  • Epoetker
    replied
    Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
    The boffins think that water temperatures and storm strengths are related.
    “One swallow does not a summer make,” – Aristotle
    Plenty of boffins also thing that the star you're born under is related to your life outcomes, but I haven't seen anyone openly base their governmental decisions on astrology. Though now that I think about it, give it time.

    Leave a comment:


  • firstfloor
    replied
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    Then why point to Hurricanes as evidence for GW?
    Yes, and the chart I looked at did not have the last 4 years - which saw some of the lowest activity in years. It only went up to 2010. If there was a direct cause and effect, you would think that the storms would be increasing in frequency and intensity. But they haven't, not recently.
    The boffins think that water temperatures and storm strengths are related.
    “One swallow does not a summer make,” – Aristotle
    Last edited by firstfloor; 06-02-2014, 09:02 AM.

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  • seer
    replied
    Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
    It makes more sense of you think about the difference between weather and climate. Weather is about what’s happening now. Climate is about long term averages like tropical, temperate and so on. Hurricanes are very short term weather phenomena and it is entirely possible that in your locality at the present time there is a reduction in hurricane activity while on a global scale there is a longer term trend in the opposite direction.
    Then why point to Hurricanes as evidence for GW?

    Have a look at the chart about ¾ way down the page here:
    Number of tropical storms and hurricanes per season
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ricane_records
    Yes, and the chart I looked at did not have the last 4 years - which saw some of the lowest activity in years. It only went up to 2010. If there was a direct cause and effect, you would think that the storms would be increasing in frequency and intensity. But they haven't, not recently.

    Leave a comment:


  • firstfloor
    replied
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    Sorry FF, first one of your links claims that the cat 4+5 storms were cause by GW, now we don't know? But like I said, we just went through some of the most quite hurricane seasons in recent times. We had tropical storms but nothing major. So was that too cause by GW? And where are they getting that "destructiveness more than 45%?" number. Because the storms are stronger or because there is more build up of population on/near the sea shore? And 45% compared to what? 100 years ago, 200 years ago?
    It makes more sense of you think about the difference between weather and climate. Weather is about what’s happening now. Climate is about long term averages like tropical, temperate and so on. Hurricanes are very short term weather phenomena and it is entirely possible that in your locality at the present time there is a reduction in hurricane activity while on a global scale there is a longer term trend in the opposite direction.

    Have a look at the chart about ¾ way down the page here:
    Number of tropical storms and hurricanes per season
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ricane_records

    Leave a comment:


  • seer
    replied
    Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
    Climate change is the movement of thirty year or longer averages of things like rainfall and temperature. The clearest examples of changing climate can be seen in receding glaciers and melting ice sheets. Hurricanes are influenced by the 'El Niño–Southern Oscillation' (ENSO). It has a cycle of two to seven years. If you were looking at these things statistically, you would expect to see long term trends if climate change is affecting hurricanes and oscillations at shorter time scales in the same data. I think the science in this area (how hurricanes are affected by global warming) is still very young and I would not be surprised if some of the stories about it are quite speculative.
    http://zfacts.com/zfacts.com/p/120.html
    "The most recent data indicate (conservatively) that global warming has increased hurricane destructiveness more than 45% in recent years. The data shown here relate hurricane strength to warmer waters but not directly to global warming. They show that total hurricane energy is very sensitive to warmer water temperatures. This sensitivity is greater than was expected. If sea surface temperature has increased due to global warming, as is generally believed, there is no escaping the fact that global warming has contributed to the energy of recent hurricanes."
    Sorry FF, first one of your links claims that the cat 4+5 storms were cause by GW, now we don't know? But like I said, we just went through some of the most quite hurricane seasons in recent times. We had tropical storms but nothing major. So was that too cause by GW? And where are they getting that "destructiveness more than 45%?" number. Because the storms are stronger or because there is more build up of population on/near the sea shore? And 45% compared to what? 100 years ago, 200 years ago?

    Leave a comment:


  • firstfloor
    replied
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    That that is the point FF, this idea in you original link that GW is causing more category 4 and 5 storms is just bunk. A 30-40 year history is not nearly enough to compare with the rest of weather history. And we have just recently been through some of the most quite hurricane seasons in many years. Is that too because of GW? So more and stronger storms are caused by GW, less and weaker storms are also caused by GW. You can't win - the deck is staked. No matter the weather condition they point to global warming.
    Climate change is the movement of thirty year or longer averages of things like rainfall and temperature. The clearest examples of changing climate can be seen in receding glaciers and melting ice sheets. Hurricanes are influenced by the 'El Niño–Southern Oscillation' (ENSO). It has a cycle of two to seven years. If you were looking at these things statistically, you would expect to see long term trends if climate change is affecting hurricanes and oscillations at shorter time scales in the same data. I think the science in this area (how hurricanes are affected by global warming) is still very young and I would not be surprised if some of the stories about it are quite speculative.
    http://zfacts.com/zfacts.com/p/120.html
    "The most recent data indicate (conservatively) that global warming has increased hurricane destructiveness more than 45% in recent years. The data shown here relate hurricane strength to warmer waters but not directly to global warming. They show that total hurricane energy is very sensitive to warmer water temperatures. This sensitivity is greater than was expected. If sea surface temperature has increased due to global warming, as is generally believed, there is no escaping the fact that global warming has contributed to the energy of recent hurricanes."
    Last edited by firstfloor; 06-01-2014, 04:09 AM.

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  • seer
    replied
    Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
    It might mean that accurate and comparable records are available only for recent decades, going back 50 years or so.
    That that is the point FF, this idea in you original link that GW is causing more category 4 and 5 storms is just bunk. A 30-40 year history is not nearly enough to compare with the rest of weather history. And we have just recently been through some of the most quite hurricane seasons in many years. Is that too because of GW? So more and stronger storms are caused by GW, less and weaker storms are also caused by GW. You can't win - the deck is staked. No matter the weather condition they point to global warming.

    Leave a comment:


  • firstfloor
    replied
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    Ok, from your link:
    I would like to see back up on this, and what they compared this to. The last 35 years? How does that compare to the previous 150 years for instance? And when we have traditionally low Hurricane seasons like in the last couple of years is that evidence against AGW?
    http://www.bvi.gov.vg/news/lower-nor...rricane-season
    It might mean that accurate and comparable records are available only for recent decades, going back 50 years or so. You could try this:
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-inf...extreme-events
    or this:
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/
    I had a quick look but I could not find anything earlier than 1958.
    There are natural variations over short and long timescales. To see a warming signal operating at the global scale I think you would need to look at decades or longer and be able to subtract out any significant natural cycles. Remember that a warming signal is expected from the basic physics of CO2 and its increasing atmospheric concentration. The difficult bit is trying to see where the energy is going and how that reservoir of heat is affecting climate and other things.

    Leave a comment:


  • seer
    replied
    Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
    There are some answers at the websites below.
    Part of the problem is our vulnerability to environmental change and our lack of knowledge about what will happen.
    http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/fcons.asp
    The biosphere has become accustomed to a certain range of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans and this has recently shifted and is continuing upwards.
    http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence
    Ok, from your link:

    The number of category 4 and 5 storms has greatly increased over the past 35 years, along with ocean temperature.

    I would like to see back up on this, and what they compared this to. The last 35 years? How does that compare to the previous 150 years for instance? And when we have traditionally low Hurricane seasons like in the last couple of years is that evidence against AGW?

    http://www.bvi.gov.vg/news/lower-nor...rricane-season

    Initial predictions are that the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season will record less than normal activity.The prediction comes on the heels of a 2013 season that was usually quiet and which produced no major hurricanes for the first time since 1994.

    Leave a comment:


  • Epoetker
    replied
    Part of the problem is our vulnerability to environmental change and our lack of knowledge about what will happen.
    Is "TAKE ACTION AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING NOW OR FACE UNSPECIFIED CONSEQUENCES" the liberal version of Pascal's Wager?

    The biosphere has become accustomed to a certain range of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans and this has recently shifted and is continuing upwards.
    Which obviously means it will continue forever.

    Leave a comment:


  • Littlejoe
    replied
    The short answer is no.

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  • firstfloor
    replied
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    Yes, and I think this is important. If the rise in global temperature has not caused any real negative weather effects perhaps we shouldn't worry so much going forward. Perhaps the whole weather system is more self-regulating than we know.
    There are some answers at the websites below.
    Part of the problem is our vulnerability to environmental change and our lack of knowledge about what will happen.
    http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/fcons.asp
    The biosphere has become accustomed to a certain range of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans and this has recently shifted and is continuing upwards.
    http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence

    Leave a comment:


  • seer
    replied
    Originally posted by Truthseeker View Post
    Do we need one more thread (this one) on climate change or global warming?
    Yes, and I think this is important. If the rise in global temperature has not caused any real negative weather effects perhaps we shouldn't worry so much going forward. Perhaps the whole weather system is more self-regulating than we know.

    Leave a comment:


  • Truthseeker
    replied
    Do we need one more thread (this one) on climate change or global warming?

    Leave a comment:


  • seer
    started a topic Global Warming:Where's The Beef?

    Global Warming:Where's The Beef?

    Ok, I have asked this question a number of times and can't seem to get a direct answer. From what I have read the over all global temperature has risen about one degree over the last hundred years or so. So are there any measurable, negative effects on weather patterns because of this? Are there more and longer droughts? More hurricanes, more tornadoes? More and stronger storms, etc...?

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