If/when Biden is elected...

[seanD]

If the Senate goes 50-50 with Harris tie-breaking, the filibuster is dead, court-packing happens, Statehood for DC, PR, and maybe others happens, the full Green New Deal gets passed, Medicare for All passes, all conservative judges in the confirmation pipeline get dumped and replaced with libs and judicial activists, the Little Sisters of the Poor get put back under the thumb, and the list goes on and on and on.

Executive orders to shut down the country as advised by Biden's medical team. The economy gets worse, then midway through, everyone is so frustrated at the gridlock in the senate, unable to pass any sort of stimulus, Dems finally sweep the senate.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Executive orders to shut down the country as advised by Biden's medical team. The economy gets worse, then midway through, everyone is so frustrated at the gridlock in the senate, unable to pass any sort of stimulus, Dems finally sweep the senate.

Legal authority for such orders is from what I read questionable. Expect them to be tied up in courts for a while. Gridlock depends on which party gets blamed for causing it so that could cut either way.

[seanD]

Legal authority for such orders is from what I read questionable. Expect them to be tied up in courts for a while. Gridlock depends on which party gets blamed for causing it so that could cut either way.

Fear and MSM magnification of that fear does wonders to skirt legalities. Most of the tyrannical Dem governors that were put in check by the courts was done long after the fact.

[Whateverman]

... From a "government that governs lest governs best" point of view, I sort of like the situation.

You meant "least", I assume...

I would have preferred a super majority, but that aside: I think gridlock is literally dangerous right now. COVID-45 is waxing, and deaths are on the rise. The next congress - containing Republicans and Democrats and Libertarians - needs to be effective. I agree that it looks like the next 2 years are going to be underwhelming, but that's not something I sort-of like...

[Thoughtful Monk]

If a civil war happens, it's not going to start in a single day, or over a single event; it's going to be a slow escalation. Sure, we can see pockets of violence/injustice today, and it's possible the upcoming election results will produce more (no matter who wins). But it's low-level and small scale, and most people are worried about the future; I think this anxiety serves to keep people from overreacting on a large scale. That's just my opinion, though.


I do not understand this point of view at all.

Surely you would agree that America's standing in the world today isn't great, and that it's declined during the Trump administration. I'm not claiming it was great during Obama's reign, and I wont (for the sake of argument) claim that Trump is responsible for the decline; maybe our low international approval rating is due entirely to the pandemic. With all of these things as a given, how can you argue that (eg.) prosecution of Trump for some crime would actually lower our approval rating lower than it already is? I'm genuinely curious...


Respectfully submitted, I think you've mostly misread our current situation, in that your predictions don't mesh-well with the attitudes of people (domestic and foreign) who have a low approval rating of our president and our country. I believe there's significant anxiety that Trump will attempt to pardon himself if he loses the election. Yes, it is possible to grant a presidential pardon before charges have even been filed; couple this with the way the GOP have unfairly stacked the SCOTUS, and people are genuinely afraid/angry at the way injustice seems to be ruling the day. If Biden were to pardon the current white house occupant, there'd be significant anger (and I suspect violence) on the Left.

In my opinion, of course.


I doubt any one man can do this, and reconciliation within a single presidential term is all-but impossible. I would say that reconciliation is more likely under Biden than Trump, though. Again, in my opinion.

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Thanks for helping to keep this thread constructive and productive, Thoughtful Monk :)

You're welcome and thank you for being civil in response. I said-you-said name calling doesn't do anything for me. Maybe I'm too conflict adverse.

Even though it now looks like Biden has won, the points are still worth discussing.

First I think the threat of civil war is ebbing. Probably got talked up because of all the emotional energy of the election. Certainly possible for higher civil unrest but I just can't see it going to a war at this point.

Regarding world standing: America for better or worse is held up as the model of democracy. Granted Trump didn't help sustain that model. However, continued investigations and charges and trials could be viewed as political vindictiveness by the Biden administration. I can recall reading about an other time a president was pursued after office. Yes, Trump called for the prosecution of Hillary Clinton but I'm still waiting for the charges to be announced. Let's face it, some of our previous presidents were pretty crooked, Grant and Harding administrations immediately come to mind. How many rebels were hanged as traitors after the Civil War? There's a general precedent of not going after the loser of the election and I'm not sure what the implications would be if a Biden administration broke that precedent. The world will be watching the transition and the administration and I don't know what they would think if they saw a continued chasing of Trump. That seems so third-world dictatorship.

I would also suggest that the more Trump is in the news in 2021 and beyond, the harder Biden will have it to get attention to his agenda. Now maybe he would view that as a good thing so he could sneak it through. On the other hand, he could find it hard to get air time on CNN or MSNBC while they're filling every minute with updates on the Trump prosecution. During the Russian investigation, I got to expecting the following headline on CNN: "Robert Mueller goes to the bathroom. Why this means Trump's impeachment is imminent."

I really think it's in Biden's best interest to get Trump out of the news (as much as possible) so he can rally support for his agenda.

Right now, I don't see how pardons would play out. Of course presidents are known to pardon friends and allies on their way out the door. Bill Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich comes to mind. I don't think Trump will be any different but it will get more airplay. No idea if he'll pardon himself.

Incidentally, I don't think the GOP unfairly stacked SOCTUS. They just got lucky that 3 openings came up under Trump's administration. Remember one of those openings was a conservative.

I agree reconciliation is more likely under Biden than Trump. I'm not holding my breath though that will be any under a Biden administration.

[Thoughtful Monk]

You meant "least", I assume...

I would have preferred a super majority, but that aside: I think gridlock is literally dangerous right now. COVID-45 is waxing, and deaths are on the rise. The next congress - containing Republicans and Democrats and Libertarians - needs to be effective. I agree that it looks like the next 2 years are going to be underwhelming, but that's not something I sort-of like...

I think mixed government is better because both sides get some of their points into the bill and it's better bill for it. I wasn't happy to be reading about the Democrats trying to put the Green New Deal through on the first stimulus package. What does the Green New Deal have to do with Covid relief.

Also if both parties have parts in the bill, they are more likely to work to fix it. Why is Obamacare so to fix? Simple: it was rammed through on party line votes and Republicans now say you didn't want our input then, we're not going to help you fix it now. (Yes, I'm simplifying this to make my point. However, I still remember this as a Democrat proposal and little effort to get Republican sign-on.)

[Terraceth]

If the Senate goes 50-50 with Harris tie-breaking, the filibuster is dead, court-packing happens, Statehood for DC, PR, and maybe others happens, the full Green New Deal gets passed, Medicare for All passes, all conservative judges in the confirmation pipeline get dumped and replaced with libs and judicial activists, the Little Sisters of the Poor get put back under the thumb, and the list goes on and on and on.

I expect that the Democrats would have about as much success with most of those things as the Republicans had in trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act when they had a stronger majority than the Democrats do under this scenario.

Someone might say "but that's only because of the more liberal Republicans like Murkowski and Collins!" Yeah, and the Democrats have those types also, like Joe Manchin or Angus King--the latter of which isn't even a Democrat at all, but an Independent who usually but not always sides with the Democrats (unlike Bernie Sanders who should drop the pretense and replace "Independent" with "Democrat" already).

[Thoughtful Monk]

Regarding Trump pardon, I think the author would agree with me when I say, pardoning Trump may not lower the anger levels but pursuing the investigations will only raise the anger levels. Given our news cycles, Biden pardons Trump and probably no one is talking about it in two months. Pursue the investigation and then maybe trials, people will be talking about it for years. Certainly it could overshadow the Biden administration trying to do it's agenda. (Imagine the conflict inside CNN between covering the Biden administration and providing updates every minute on the investigation!!) It might actually be in Biden's best interest to end the investigations even if he doesn't pardon.

Found this article on NBC News that gives a better summary than I did that argues Biden should pardon Trump: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...im-ncna1247986 It also points out there is legal hazard to Trump to accept the pardon.

I find it interesting that now that Biden is defacto President-elect, that this issue is resurfacing. This article repeats my statement that that Trump investigations would overshadow a Biden administration. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...s-say-n1247959

Let's put it on the table for discussion: should Biden pardon Trump?

[Bill the Cat]

Let's put it on the table for discussion: should Biden pardon Trump?

For what?

[Thoughtful Monk]

For what?

Good point. If you think Biden should pardon Trump, what crimes would the pardon be for?

[Stoic]

Good point. If you think Biden should pardon Trump, what crimes would the pardon be for?

Let's wait and see what crimes Trump pardons himself for.

[Electric Skeptic]

Civil War isn't here yet. We're just in some degree of civil unrest. The best analogy I can come up with is it's 1913 in Europe and the sides are still reluctant to pull the trigger, Unfortunately I think we're getting very close to something stupid happens and war starts. I agree the election isn't going to affect the dynamic any. We need all sides to take a deep breath, look into the abyss, decide it's really bad down there, and step back. Unfortunately, I think some parties (and their numbers are growing) think they will come out ahead in a civil war and the aftermath.

You think we're in civil unrest now, wait and see what we look like if Trump manages to steal this election.

[Thoughtful Monk]

You think we're in civil unrest now, wait and see what we look like if Trump manages to steal this election.

All things do not revolve around what Trump does or doesn't do. We can go further down hill even if Trump does nothing. A few years before Trump was elected, I was reading some articles that the US has entered a decline phase. At best Trump pushed us further down the hill. Frankly, I'm not hopeful that Biden will reverse the trend. I think there are people alive today who will see the end of democracy in the US.