Coronavirus Outbreak...

[shunyadragon]

A good way to see if you're on the right track is to make an actual prediction, and see how closely it matches reality.

In the past mike has not accepted the fatality figure by the CDC as accurate.

[mikewhitney]

In the past mike has not accepted the fatality figure by the CDC as accurate.

where do you find that? Sorry. I overheard your whisper.

[shunyadragon]

where do you find that? Sorry. I overheard your whisper.

NO WHISPER! You have denied the pandemic from the beginning and questioned the fatality figures.

[mikewhitney]

NO WHISPER! You have denied the pandemic from the beginning and questioned the fatality figures.

Wow. You must have been reading something that i was not writing. Try reading what I write next time.

[NorrinRadd]

They pulled the study down because it was wrong.

For some real data, there is a good article here:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Here are the two most-relevant graphs:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...t&region=World

Excess Mortality1.JPG


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...3&region=World

ExcessMortality2.JPG

Do you have a link to the study authors themselves actually saying the study was wrong? Last I heard, they pulled it because they feared that the data, while accurate, would be misused.

If the study authors themselves are not acknowledging error in the data, I'm calling BS on your claim.

[Starlight]

Do you have a link to the study authors themselves actually saying the study was wrong? Last I heard, they pulled it because they feared that the data, while accurate, would be misused.

If the study authors themselves are not acknowledging error in the data, I'm calling BS on your claim.

Stoic provided us on the previous page with this link to the publisher's explanation of why they pulled the article. Part of their explanation:

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19...

Because of these inaccuracies and our failure to provide additional information about the effects of COVID-19, The News-Letter decided to retract this article.

Basically the main point of the article was BS. The author claimed CDC's death numbers aren't above normal this year. The CDC's death numbers are ~300,000 above normal this year. So the author was 100% wrong in her major claim.

This is one reason scientific research gets peer reviewed rather than published in student newsletters. To avoid super-embarrassing mistakes like this one its author made.

[Mountain Man]

A researcher at Johns Hopkins discovered something rather curious: deaths attributed to the China flu have increased throughout 2020 at the exact same rate that deaths attributed to other causes have decreased...

“Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same,” it read.

This is interesting for many reasons. There’s no question the virus can be deadly, but just how deadly is something we don’t know. You’d think we would by now, but we don’t. All we get reported to us are numbers, and numbers without context are meaningless. We’re told the “total number of cases in the US,” but this includes everyone who’s ever tested positive. That number dates back to March, and is over 13 million. But the vast majority of those people had it and got over it. There aren’t 13 million Americans infected right now. That would be a more useful number to know, would give the pandemic context, and help give people some perspective, which is likely [why] it's not reported. Can’t scare the hell out of people as easily with reality.

According to the Hopkins story, “not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.”

[...]

Shockingly, the story concluded this way:

"When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising...this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

"This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly ... the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."

https://townhall.com/columnists/dere...llide-n2580829

Hmmm... is the China flu really worse than the common flu?

[firstfloor]

Check out what’s happening in the hospitals. The dead we can deal with, it’s the barely hanging on to life ones that cause the headaches.

Charles, I mean, Scott Atlas is out of bright ideas.

[Stoic]

A researcher at Johns Hopkins discovered something rather curious: deaths attributed to the China flu have increased throughout 2020 at the exact same rate that deaths attributed to other causes have decreased...

That's just some idiot on townhall quoting the same article you just posted, which has already been debunked.

Hmmm... is the China flu really worse than the common flu?

Yes, it really is.

[Mountain Man]

...has already been debunked.

It wasn't debunked, it was ignored. Science is about asking questions, but all we hear from liberal morons is "Don't question the science!"

[Stoic]

It wasn't debunked, it was ignored. Science is about asking questions, but all we hear from liberal morons is "Don't question the science!"

Source: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.

© Copyright Original Source

(emphasis mine)

[Mountain Man]

Source: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.

© Copyright Original Source

(emphasis mine)

I see, so the "debunking" is basically some other guy saying, "Nuh uh!"

[Stoic]

I see, so the "debunking" is basically some other guy saying, "Nuh uh!"

When the person making the original claim is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher, and "some other guy" is the CDC, then yes, that's a debunking.

[Mountain Man]

New study suggests that the China flu may have entered the United States as early September 2019.

https://townhall.com/columnists/brad...he-us-n2581066

[shunyadragon]

It wasn't debunked, it was ignored. Science is about asking questions, but all we hear from liberal morons is "Don't question the science!"

In the history of the pandemic the Republicans have ignored the science and actively became 'super spreaders' and continue this today rejecting the measures to control the pandemic.