Originally posted by CivilDiscourse
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Originally posted by CivilDiscourse View Post
In Indiana I follow the # of daily deaths. It is, in my opinion, the "cleanest" of the metrics used. Positivity rate is skewed due to who is/was being tested. Cases are skewed based on # of tests conducted. Deaths while there is argument about what should/should not count, seems to be a fairly consistently measured metric, which makes the #'s comparable across time, but not necessarily across states.
Indiana, by the way, isn't doing so hot. We are at/past the peak from earlier in the year.
https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm
This year has seen an increase of deaths by 10%. This is about 5000 more this year.
The chart which shows an average of say 40 per day in November. However, the total covid-probable deaths are shown as 254. I'm not sure what accounts for the other greater number of deaths -- it might be interesting to find out.
IndianaDeathsByDay.png
So, I have not pinpointed anything about Indiana but only see the covid-related deaths as a small proportion of the increased deaths-per-week.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
More significant is possibly the increased number of deaths per week. Indiana as basically around 1200-1300 or 178 per day.
This year has seen an increase of deaths by 10%. This is about 5000 more this year.
The chart which shows an average of say 40 per day in November. However, the total covid-probable deaths are shown as 254. I'm not sure what accounts for the other greater number of deaths -- it might be interesting to find out.
IndianaDeathsByDay.png
So, I have not pinpointed anything about Indiana but only see the covid-related deaths as a small proportion of the increased deaths-per-week.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
That's a lot for Indiana.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
More significant is possibly the increased number of deaths per week. Indiana as basically around 1200-1300 or 178 per day.
This year has seen an increase of deaths by 10%. This is about 5000 more this year.
The chart which shows an average of say 40 per day in November. However, the total covid-probable deaths are shown as 254. I'm not sure what accounts for the other greater number of deaths -- it might be interesting to find out.
IndianaDeathsByDay.png
So, I have not pinpointed anything about Indiana but only see the covid-related deaths as a small proportion of the increased deaths-per-week.
And you will notice that the number of deaths per day is rising pretty rapidly, suggesting that Indiana isn't doing enough at the moment to slow the transmission of the disease.
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
That's 4952 deaths that were definitely due to covid-19, about 40 per day of those in November, plus 254 deaths that were probably due to covid-19.
And you will notice that the number of deaths per day is rising pretty rapidly, suggesting that Indiana isn't doing enough at the moment to slow the transmission of the disease.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post Here's the chat I created from the data from 2 weeks ago. The last week might be low due to the 5 day latitude in reporting deaths in SD.
SD Covid Chart to end of oct 2020.png
The highest point is about the first week of Sept. Generally the 2020 data (red line) is riding pretty close to the 2019 data (blue line).
This type of results has been common for headlines that promoted fear in the last six months that has contradicted the actual data.
The data comes from https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Cou...uses/muzy-jte6
I got an excel or csv download and had to rearrange the data for convenient graphing.
Find my speling strange? I'm trying this out: Simplified Speling. Feel free to join me.
"Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do."-Jeremy Bentham
"We question all our beliefs, except for the ones that we really believe in, and those we never think to question."-Orson Scott Card
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Originally posted by stfoskey15 View Post
Here's a version with the latest data. It looks pretty clear to me that most of September and October had an above normal number of deaths.
The thing I was pointing out was that if this is the hot spot in nation it is a good sign since that means more populated states are way low.Last edited by mikewhitney; 11-21-2020, 07:56 PM.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
hmm. that looks like what I shared. Must be a coincidence. What were you going to say about this chart?
The thing I was pointing out was that if this is the hot spot in nation it is a good sign since that means more populated states are way low.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
hmm. that looks like what I shared. Must be a coincidence. What were you going to say about this chart?
The thing I was pointing out was that if this is the hot spot in nation it is a good sign since that means more populated states are way low.Find my speling strange? I'm trying this out: Simplified Speling. Feel free to join me.
"Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do."-Jeremy Bentham
"We question all our beliefs, except for the ones that we really believe in, and those we never think to question."-Orson Scott Card
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
That's 4952 deaths that were definitely due to covid-19, about 40 per day of those in November, plus 254 deaths that were probably due to covid-19.
And you will notice that the number of deaths per day is rising pretty rapidly, suggesting that Indiana isn't doing enough at the moment to slow the transmission of the disease.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post[...]
Is the coronavirus really any worse than the common flu?
"Yes. President Trump is a huge embarrassment. And it’s an embarrassment to evangelical Christianity that there appear to be so many who will celebrate precisely the aspects that I see Biblically as most lamentable and embarrassing." Southern Baptist leader Albert Mohler Jr.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
hmm. that looks like what I shared. Must be a coincidence. What were you going to say about this chart?
The thing I was pointing out was that if this is the hot spot in nation it is a good sign since that means more populated states are way low.
As far as more populated state absolutely no. This is a national/world pandemic, and citing limited data on states that have low rates Indiana and misrepresenting it does not address the seriousness of the pandemic.
For example:
Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
They are not.
Here's the obvious data I have been talking about. In the OC, the number of cases is proportional to the number of tests
CalifOC Cases v Tests Nov 20.png
the blue line is average daily positive covid PCR tests and the red is average daily covid PCR tests done. (I get the daily data and then sum it and divide by 7. This is easier to see on the chart)
The x-axis represents the weeks starting with Jan 22. (If you add 3 to these then you have the week of the year.)
Also, the daily PCR tests are divided by 10 to fit the chart better. So for the OC, 223 positive outcomes (whether sick or not) per day is enough to put us to severe lockdown conditions. However, these numbers simply follow as a percentage of number of tests done.
A better (but still pretty useless) gauge is percent of cases per number of tests
CalifOC cases as pct of Tests Nov 20.png
we see here that the original percent is high because the tests were done more based on people that were hospitalized. This point is based on common sense and just general awareness of how things have been handled.
The peak is around June and early July.
If we are going to use useless PCR test numbers, at least the govt decisions should be based on the percent of positives rather than the number of positives.
Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
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