Coronavirus Outbreak...

[lilpixieofterror]

84% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas that range in population density from about 150 people per square mile for the smaller urban areas to a whopping 29,000 people per square mile for some of our largest cities. The population of our ten largest cities exceeds the entire population of South Korea with a population density that is at least ten times that of South Korea. Comparing averages for countries as diverse as the U.S. and South Korea either betrays a lack of understanding of basic statistics, or comprises a very disingenuous argument.

In this case, a median population density would be a better choice. If you looked at the entire population of South Korea and asked "what is the median population density experienced by a South Korean citizen" and compared it to the U.S., I think you would find that the U.S. has FAR more people living at a higher population density than the the median South Korean citizen.

And if you had bothered to read my before post, I said cities are more likely to be impacted worse than less densely populated areas. NYC is among one of the most densely populated areas, in the US. It’s not surprising they are being impacted worse than tiny towns, dotting the country side. My point was, thinking the US as a whole, needs the same testing methods as one of the most densely populated countries, is crazy.

[lilpixieofterror]

True. You and firstfloor wouldn't be the first liberals to hope that this crisis is managed just poorly enough to hurt President Trump's re-election chances. You have even said on numerous occasions that you would happily endure hardships (with little regard for how it might hurt anyone else) if it meant the President's ouster. That's a pretty warped perspective.

What’s a few hundred thousand dead, if it means Trump won’t get re-elected?

[oxmixmudd]

Yesterday I said the world would hit 500,000 cases sometime on Friday. But I was wrong, it will be sometime today. The total # cases rose by nearly 56,000 and we are at 492,000+ as of the current tally (and we do not have Italy's numbers yet).

Doubling time for the US deaths is now very close to just 2 days, down (e.g. worse) from yesterday's 2.5 days. Doubling time for new cases in the US is unchanged @ 3 days.

There were definately some good things in the stimulus bill: no stock buybacks, unemployment for 4 months, extended to gig workers and contract employees. Enhanced benefits as well, and additional $600 a week. Checks have a roll off so we aren't giving 1200 or 2400 dollars to that shouldn't need it.

It seems many buisiesses are stepping up as well. Mortgage lenders offering help with loans. Many retailers that are booming because of the virus sheltering at home are hiring additional workers, not sure if that is pure charity, they need help. But that should help some who are out of work as a consequence.

If we work together, we can get through this. I have not looked yet today to see if it's same-old same-old here at TWEB, but hopefully there is a shift in attitude coming or already forming. This is not a party thing, its a worldwide problem and we all must work together to get through it.

[oxmixmudd]

Have you not been reading the data on testing? Here, let me show you:

A “false-negative” outcome is when someone is tested and found to be clear of the disease, but when tested again, are found to have it. The WHO’s guidelines for laboratory testing of COVID-19 say that negative results “do not rule out the possibility of COVID-19 virus infection.”7

This means that even in countries that have done lots of tests, the true number of COVID-19 cases is still uncertain, although of course more testing still means more certainty.

There haven’t been many studies into how common false negatives are, so it’s hard to know how big an impact they have on our understanding – but research is going on.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

If you continue to read and look at their charts, you’ll find the US is among the top 5 countries to have performed COVID-19 test as of 20 March. You’ll also see that there is some wiggle room in there.



South Korea also is more urbanized, with a larger percentage of the population, living closer together. Their population density is 503 people, per KM² while ours is 36 people per KM². This matters, with an infectious disease. More spread out = less chance for community spread = less total infections. (Italy is 206). This stuff all matters and is things you’re ignoring in your ‘get Trump’ mentality.

Pixie - you are showing ignorance again by not really understanding my point, and your bias - there was nothing in that post that was 'get Trump'. That post was just pure science and answering your implication that without nearly 100% testing you can't know what the real mortality rate is. Another of your attempts to pretend there is a justifiable reason to play down the potential harm this virus can cause.

S. Korea has turned the tide on the growth and spread of the virus. This is a natural phenomena. The virus spreads according to physical laws and its own physical properties. To stop its spread R0, the MEASURED average number of consequent infections from a single infected source, MUST be below 1. Period. You can't change how infectious the disease is, so to get R0 down you must isolate those with infections so they don't allow the disease to do its thing. S. Korea has done that. But that means they have reduced the effective R0 to below one, which has direct physical and mathematical consequences in terms of just how low the mortality rate can actually be.

As for the raw number of US tests. That isn't the raw number that tells the story Pixie. The number that tells the story is the number per capita unit. e.g. The number of tests per million, or per thousand. And there we lag S.Korea and will continue to lag them for a while.

It would be fair to factor population density into that report and compare apples to apples. That is, the effect of a given number of tests per thousand might be different in a place like Seoul Korea or NYC that some small town or farming community in eastern Co.

[lilpixieofterror]

Pixie - you are showing ignorance again by not really understanding my point, and your bias - there was nothing in that post that was 'get Trump'. That post was just pure science and answering your implication that without nearly 100% testing you can't know what the real mortality rate is. Another of your attempts to pretend there is a justifiable reason to play down the potential harm this virus can cause.

S. Korea has turned the tide on the growth and spread of the virus. This is a natural phenomena. The virus spreads according to physical laws and its own physical properties. To stop its spread R0, the MEASURED average number of consequent infections from a single infected source, MUST be below 1. Period. You can't change how infectious the disease is, so to get R0 down you must isolate those with infections so they don't allow the disease to do its thing. S. Korea has done that. But that means they have reduced the effective R0 to below one, which has direct physical and mathematical consequences in terms of just how low the mortality rate can actually be.

As for the raw number of US tests. That isn't the raw number that tells the story Pixie. The number that tells the story is the number per capita unit. e.g. The number of tests per million, or per thousand. And there we lag S.Korea and will continue to lag them for a while.

And again Jim, I don’t think you’re quite getting what your opponents are saying, so tell me what you think they are saying. I also note you decided to ignore the rest of what I said and chose this point. Why?

[carpedm9587]

True. You and firstfloor wouldn't be the first liberals to hope that this crisis is managed just poorly enough to hurt President Trump's re-election chances. You have even said on numerous occasions that you would happily endure hardships (with little regard for how it might hurt anyone else) if it meant the President's ouster. That's a pretty warped perspective.

I cannot speak for "liberals" or even "moderates," but from my perspective, this crisis IS being managed poorly enough to harm people. Whether it will harm his chances is another question. And I have indeed said I would endure hardship if it means Trump will not be re-elected, but the second part of your sentence is incorrect. The reason I would endure those hardships is because I believe more people will be harmed more if Trump is re-elected for another four years. I am taking the long-term view. I'm not willing to trade the health of our planet or citizens for a percentage point or two of GDP growth. There is nothing "warped" about that. There is also nothing "tribal" or "team" about that. I will (and have) vote for ANY candidate, without regard to party, that will push policies that will achieve that long-term view, even if it means short-term pain.

I think it is a travesty that our generation is saddling the next 2-3 generations with crippling debt because we can't balance a bloody check-book. Fiscal responsibility used to be a hallmark of the GOP. Those days are long past and now we have NO party pushing for it.

[carpedm9587]

And if you had bothered to read my before post, I said cities are more likely to be impacted worse than less densely populated areas. NYC is among one of the most densely populated areas, in the US. It’s not surprising they are being impacted worse than tiny towns, dotting the country side. My point was, thinking the US as a whole, needs the same testing methods as one of the most densely populated countries, is crazy.

My observation was about your use of statistics, which made no sense. The U.S. does need to employ some of the same testing strategies used by S.K. and Germany where they are appropriate, and AFAICT they are appropriate for over 80% of our population. Other strategies will need to be employed in more rural areas, or many not be needed in those areas except for diagnostic purposes. That is an issue for the virologists to weigh in on.

[oxmixmudd]

And again Jim, I don’t think you’re quite getting what your opponents are saying, so tell me what you think they are saying.

pixie, stop playing games. I highlighted the sentence I was replying to in the other post:

Have they tested the entire country?

That sentence was a counter to my claim about the mortality being 1%. The implication being that without testing the entire country, you can't know if the mortality is much lower than that. It's a common argument, which has merit in some areas, but not in S. Korea.

I answered that with a detailed technical explanation of why 100% testing is NOT required to know S.Korea's mortality rate is or is fairly close to the REAL mortality rate for the disease.

And I answered your divergent but mistaken reply to that response as well with simple science and objective reason.

[oxmixmudd]

I thought this was pretty amazing. Dyson, of vacuum cleaner and air purifier fame, just designed an easy to manufacture ventilator in 10 days and will ship 15000 of them in early April. Most to (his home country?) UK.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/...rus/index.html

[carpedm9587]

Yesterday I said the world would hit 500,000 cases sometime on Friday. But I was wrong, it will be sometime today. The total # cases rose by nearly 56,000 and we are at 492,000+ as of the current tally (and we do not have Italy's numbers yet).

Doubling time for the US deaths is now very close to just 2 days, down (e.g. worse) from yesterday's 2.5 days. Doubling time for new cases in the US is unchanged @ 3 days.

There were definately some good things in the stimulus bill: no stock buybacks, unemployment for 4 months, extended to gig workers and contract employees. Enhanced benefits as well, and additional $600 a week. Checks have a roll off so we aren't giving 1200 or 2400 dollars to that shouldn't need it.

It seems many buisiesses are stepping up as well. Mortgage lenders offering help with loans. Many retailers that are booming because of the virus sheltering at home are hiring additional workers, not sure if that is pure charity, they need help. But that should help some who are out of work as a consequence.

If we work together, we can get through this. I have not looked yet today to see if it's same-old same-old here at TWEB, but hopefully there is a shift in attitude coming or already forming. This is not a party thing, its a worldwide problem and we all must work together to get through it.

While the infection and death numbers are climbing, the recovery rate is also climbing, which is good news. When the recovery curve is steeper than the new infection curve, it will be a good thing - but we are nowhere near that. Worldwide the daily increase in recoveries has averaged 4.25% over the last 10 days while the daily increase in new cases has averaged 10.5% for that same period. Not only is that over double the rate, but the total number of infections is over four times the total number of recoveries, so the gap between the two is still widening aggressively. Based on the numbers, within the next four days we will be the most infected country in the world (although I am still not 100% confident in the China numbers).

[Mountain Man]

I cannot speak for "liberals" or even "moderates," but from my perspective...

Which is to say the liberal perspective.

...this crisis IS being managed poorly enough to harm people.

It's really not. Trump has done a good job, I think, and certainly better than Obama who was out golfing while people were suffering from the swine flu. And by all accounts, Trump is taking this seriously and heeding the advice of his response team. I'm not aware of any world leader who is handling it better.

[carpedm9587]

pixie, stop playing games. I highlighted the sentence I was replying to in the other post:

That sentence was a counter to my claim about the mortality being 1%. The implication being that without testing the entire country, you can't know if the mortality is much lower than that. It's a common argument, which has merit in some areas, but not in S. Korea.

I answered that with a detailed technical explanation of why 100% testing is NOT required to know S.Korea's mortality rate is or is fairly close to the REAL mortality rate for the disease.

And I answered your divergent but mistaken reply to that response as well with simple science and objective reason.

Not to mention that the "actual" mortality rate can never be determined with 100% certainty. No country will do 100% testing and no test is 100% accurate. Mortality rates are pretty much always determined by applying statistical analysis to the available data. It is based on the same mathematical principles that govern polling and subject to the law of large numbers.

[carpedm9587]

Which is to say the liberal perspective.

I am liberal on some issues (mostly social ones), moderate on others, and conservative on still others. If you want to call me "liberal," knock yourself out. You can also call me an oak tree if you want. It doesn't alter the reality.

It's really not. Trump has done a good job, I think, and certainly better than Obama who was out golfing while people were suffering from the swine flu. And by all accounts, Trump is taking this seriously and heeding the advice of his response team. I'm not aware of any world leader who handling it better.

Ahh..back to what about Obama! A familiar refrain. Trump has made significant errors and continues his stream of misinformation and lies almost unabated, at a time when the country needs a forthright leader. Actually, the country pretty much always should have that, but especially at a time of crisis. I've listed his missteps in previous posts - I'll let those stand for themselves. Meanwhile, you are welcome to your view. I disagree.

[oxmixmudd]

While the infection and death numbers are climbing, the recovery rate is also climbing, which is good news. When the recovery curve is steeper than the new infection curve, it will be a good thing - but we are nowhere near that. Worldwide the daily increase in recoveries has averaged 4.25% over the last 10 days while the daily increase in new cases has averaged 10.5% for that same period. Not only is that over double the rate, but the total number of infections is over four times the total number of recoveries, so the gap between the two is still widening aggressively. Based on the numbers, within the next four days we will be the most infected country in the world (although I am still not 100% confident in the China numbers).

I am suspicious of China as well in that their government would hide the truth if the numbers were going bad again. OTOH, secondary indicators, like reopening WuHan, would expose their lies quickly if they are lying, so it seems they may have a certain amount of reliability.

Recoveries will likely continue to lag new cases until the peak infection is reached, or until/if 'social distancing' significantly lowers the infection rate. Even S.Korea still has more in the active (4966 vs 4144) than in the recovered phase, and this is weeks after their growth in cases left an exponential phase. They added 100 cases today, and that number has been fairly flat for two weeks now. They have 59 cases serious, so adding in another 15 or so till we reach a time where most of their cases have recovered, it looks like the worst their mortality will be when it all those infected in the exponential phase have recovered is around 200/9300 = 2.1%, if only 1/5 of those serious die ( typical percentage) we are looking at 142/9300 = 1.5%. And that number will be about as real as it gets given their extensive testing.

[lilpixieofterror]

pixie, stop playing games. I highlighted the sentence I was replying to in the other post:

Says the person who falsely accused me of saying things I never said, spreading things I never said, than instead of an apology, I got the excuse of, “Well, I was talking about other people!”

Still no apology for your false witnessing. Don’t worry, I don’t expect any sort of apology for it because TDS has rotted your brain and turned you into the Jorge of civics.

That sentence was a counter to my claim about the mortality being 1%. The implication being that without testing the entire country, you can't know if the mortality is much lower than that. It's a common argument, which has merit in some areas, but not in S. Korea.

I answered that with a detailed technical explanation of why 100% testing is NOT required to know S.Korea's mortality rate is or is fairly close to the REAL mortality rate for the disease.

And I answered your divergent but mistaken reply to that response as well with simple science and objective reason.

So you don’t understand what your opponents believe and chose instead to spread false information about them. There is no science involved, but your false accusations and inability to admit to it shows all I need to know about you. I never said a word about needing to test everyone, rather I asked you the percentage tested and instead of answering, you choose to assume and make more false accusations. Do you even understand what your opponents believe?