Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

Iowa Primary

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Iowa Primary

    Well tomorrow it begins. The first primary of 2020.

    In Dem primaries the results of Iowa have historically been reasonably predictive of who becomes the Dem nominee (not so much in the Republican primary).

    Averaging the two polls out today for Iowa gives:
    Sanders 28, Biden 18, Warren 18, Buttigieg 15, Klobuchar 10, others <=5% each.

    The Iowa rules are that at any given caucus location, if the votes for a candidate are less than 15% of the votes in the room, the people caucusing for that candidate are directed to re-vote for one of the more popular candidates. I think the votes from all the precincts are then summed statewide (there's been some changes from last time about exactly how this works). Obviously this 15% threshold can be very detrimental to any candidates near or below that margin statewide depending on how their support is distributed between caucus locations.

    So, estimating what the actual outcome of the caucuses will be, using the above polling data and given the 15% cut-off hurting candidates near 15% and zeroing out the <=5% candidates, and then scaling so the votes total 100% among the remaining candidates... gives an outcome something like Sanders 46%, Biden 20%, Warren 20%, Buttigieg 11%, Klobuchar 3%.

    Predictions? Thoughts?

    Personally I predict that Sanders will do a bit better (~5%) than he's expected to do from the polling, and Biden will do a bit worse. Though because polling doesn't directly translate to vote tallies, it's not easy to specify exactly what that will mean numerically. I guess basically I'm saying my predictions are:
    1. Bernie will win Iowa
    2. No one else will be close to Bernie
    3. It will probably be close with regard to whether he wins a plurality or wins outright (i.e. his final statewide total will be ~50%)
    4. The MSM stories after Iowa will be that Bernie did better than expected, and that Biden did worse than expected. There may also be anger with 'the system' with regard to the fact that Biden/Warren/Buttigieg were 'non-viable' at some caucus locations because they didn't reach 15% there.
    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

  • #2
    Looking around the internet for predictions, there seems to be a polling-backed one by a group I hadn't heard of. Data for progress says:

    Our poll shows a field in immense flux... After [calculating all the] reallocation of delegates from candidates not clearing the viability threshold in each precinct, we estimate Sanders to have 28 percent of the vote, Warren to have 25 percent of the vote, Biden to have 24 percent of the vote and Buttigieg to have 22 percent of the vote.

    ...Iowa caucusgoers have favorable views of all the leading candidates, though Michael Bloomberg elicits strong negative views. We find that no candidates definitively benefit from [reallocation of the votes for candidates not meeting 15%]. Sanders... [leads among] “extremely enthusiastic” Democrats [and among] caucusgoers who have their mind made up.



    538 helpfully breaks down their own predictions into post-realignment delegate totals. Converting their numbers into final percentages for Iowa delegates, gives their forecast as: Sanders 34.5%, Biden 31.7%, Buttegieg 18%, Warren 15.3%. 538 also clarifies that it's not just a state-wide sum of the caucus results, but it's weighted by congressional districts.
    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
      Looking around the internet for predictions, there seems to be a polling-backed one by a group I hadn't heard of. Data for progress says:....
      That sounds like such an incredibly independent and unbiased research group!
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        Well tomorrow it begins. The first primary of 2020.

        In Dem primaries the results of Iowa have historically been reasonably predictive of who becomes the Dem nominee (not so much in the Republican primary).

        Averaging the two polls out today for Iowa gives:
        Sanders 28, Biden 18, Warren 18, Buttigieg 15, Klobuchar 10, others <=5% each.

        The Iowa rules are that at any given caucus location, if the votes for a candidate are less than 15% of the votes in the room, the people caucusing for that candidate are directed to re-vote for one of the more popular candidates. I think the votes from all the precincts are then summed statewide (there's been some changes from last time about exactly how this works). Obviously this 15% threshold can be very detrimental to any candidates near or below that margin statewide depending on how their support is distributed between caucus locations.

        So, estimating what the actual outcome of the caucuses will be, using the above polling data and given the 15% cut-off hurting candidates near 15% and zeroing out the <=5% candidates, and then scaling so the votes total 100% among the remaining candidates... gives an outcome something like Sanders 46%, Biden 20%, Warren 20%, Buttigieg 11%, Klobuchar 3%.

        Predictions? Thoughts?

        Personally I predict that Sanders will do a bit better (~5%) than he's expected to do from the polling, and Biden will do a bit worse. Though because polling doesn't directly translate to vote tallies, it's not easy to specify exactly what that will mean numerically. I guess basically I'm saying my predictions are:
        1. Bernie will win Iowa
        2. No one else will be close to Bernie
        3. It will probably be close with regard to whether he wins a plurality or wins outright (i.e. his final statewide total will be ~50%)
        4. The MSM stories after Iowa will be that Bernie did better than expected, and that Biden did worse than expected. There may also be anger with 'the system' with regard to the fact that Biden/Warren/Buttigieg were 'non-viable' at some caucus locations because they didn't reach 15% there.
        Lotsa folks on both the right and left aren't buying the Des Moines Register's stated reason for spiking their final poll. Ostensibly it's because a single Buttigieg supporter said that when polled the pollster didn't list Buttigieg when asked who they planned on voting for (at least according to an ABC radio report I heard at 3:30ish AM). That has a difficult time passing the smell test.

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          Lotsa folks on both the right and left aren't buying the Des Moines Register's stated reason for spiking their final poll. Ostensibly it's because a single Buttigieg supporter said that when polled the pollster didn't list Buttigieg when asked who they planned on voting for (at least according to an ABC radio report I heard at 3:30ish AM). That has a difficult time passing the smell test.
          I do have to wonder if the true reason was that someone didn't like the amount it said Bernie was going to win by.
          "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
          "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
          "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
            I do have to wonder if the true reason was that someone didn't like the amount it said Bernie was going to win by.
            That Sanders had shot up to 7-10 points above the others does seem to be the go to suspicion. Of course there is no evidence of any malfeasance on the part of the DMR, which pretty much stakes the entire reputation of their paper on that poll taken every 4 years. The last bit seemingly makes it highly unlikely that they'd risk everything now with playing games with it.

            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
              In Dem primaries the results of Iowa have historically been reasonably predictive of who becomes the Dem nominee (not so much in the Republican primary).
              Still, let's not forget how in 1992 the guy who actually won the candidacy (Bill Clinton) got third place with a measly 2.8% in Iowa.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                Still, let's not forget how in 1992 the guy who actually won the candidacy (Bill Clinton) got third place with a measly 2.8% in Iowa.
                In that race there was a Senator from Iowa, so not really comparable.
                "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  Des Moines Register's stated reason for spiking their final poll.
                  538 reported the previously undisclosed results of that poll today just before the Iowa caucuses started. It was Sanders 22, Warren 18, Pete 16, Biden 13.

                  That poll's looking pretty accurate if the results gradually trickling out of Iowa are anything to go by.
                  "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                  "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                  "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Well the official results have been delayed until tomorrow due to technical difficulties.

                    The Bernie campaign were keeping a close track of all the results at precinct level (due to justified paranoia about the DNC rigging the system against them like last time), and they've released their own tally of the results. They recorded:
                    Bernie 30%, Pete 25%, Warren 21%, Biden 12%, Amy 11%.

                    The story of the night appears to be that Biden utterly tanked. Pete and Amy put in surprisingly good efforts relative to earlier polling numbers. And Bernie took the number one spot as predicted by pretty much everyone.
                    "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                    "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                    "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                      The Bernie campaign were keeping a close track of all the results at precinct level (due to justified paranoia about the DNC rigging the system against them like last time)
                      Conspiracy theorists
                      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        Well the official results have been delayed until tomorrow due to technical difficulties.

                        The Bernie campaign were keeping a close track of all the results at precinct level (due to justified paranoia about the DNC rigging the system against them like last time), and they've released their own tally of the results. They recorded:
                        Bernie 30%, Pete 25%, Warren 21%, Biden 12%, Amy 11%.

                        The story of the night appears to be that Biden utterly tanked. Pete and Amy put in surprisingly good efforts relative to earlier polling numbers. And Bernie took the number one spot as predicted by pretty much everyone.
                        That Biden did not do well is supported by how his team was talking down the Iowa caucus starting the day before it took place. If he places a distant third or lower then I expect to see some of his support migrating to Bloomberg

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          'It’s a total meltdown': Confusion seizes Iowa as officials struggle to report results

                          DES MOINES, Iowa — A technical meltdown in Iowa Monday night set off bedlam in the critical first contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, triggering competing claims of victory and stoking doubts about the legitimacy of the eventual outcome.

                          No results had been reported by midnight Eastern, and two campaigns told POLITICO that after a conference call with the Iowa Democratic Party, they didn’t expect any returns until Tuesday morning at the earliest
                          .

                          https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...lection-110600
                          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                            Conspiracy theorists
                            Who knows, there are powerful Dems that don't want to see Bernie win, or THE RUSSIANS!
                            Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                              Well tomorrow it begins. The first primary of 2020.

                              In Dem primaries the results of Iowa have historically been reasonably predictive ....
                              So far, they're predicting chaos.
                              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                              Comment

                              Related Threads

                              Collapse

                              Topics Statistics Last Post
                              Started by Gondwanaland, Today, 12:52 PM
                              6 responses
                              59 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post seanD
                              by seanD
                               
                              Started by rogue06, Today, 11:34 AM
                              13 responses
                              73 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Bill the Cat  
                              Started by seer, Yesterday, 02:33 PM
                              20 responses
                              124 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                              Started by Mountain Man, 11-29-2023, 06:44 PM
                              53 responses
                              342 views
                              2 likes
                              Last Post Diogenes  
                              Started by seer, 11-29-2023, 12:29 PM
                              25 responses
                              161 views
                              0 likes
                              Last Post seer
                              by seer
                               
                              Working...
                              X