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The blue-state exodus gains momentum

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  • The blue-state exodus gains momentum

    The blue-state exodus gains momentum

    As is pointed out in the article, some of the people who are moving from the blue states to escape the idiotic governance and taxation are, oddly enough, bringing their same beliefs and support for that kind of crap to the red states.

    Nine years ago I published a piece that asserted, “Voters around the country are concluding it’s better to be red than dead,” applying almost the exact opposite meaning to an old phrase referring to communism. New Census Bureau figures appear to confirm my prediction — mostly.

    My point was that many voters were, and are, increasingly fed up with the high taxes, heavy regulations and increasing social wokeness that have come to characterize most blue states — i.e., those dominated by liberal politicians and policies.

    I argued that voters wanting to live in a business-friendly, fiscally responsible state that minimizes its tax burden would either vote out the liberals destroying their state’s economy or flee to a red state. The latest Census Bureau report highlights the red-state shift.

    According to an Election Data Services analysis of the Census Bureau report, “The population projections point toward a ten [congressional] seat change over 17 states across the nation by year 2020.”

    Seven states are projected to gain one or more congressional seats after the 2020 election; 10 states are projected lose one seat.

    The red-state leader is Texas, with a projected pickup of three congressional seats following the 2020 census — and that after gaining four congressional seats after the 2010 election. Florida will pick up two seats, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one, according to the analysis.

    All 10 losing states — Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia — lose only one seat.

    Of the seven states gaining seats, five voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Of the 10 states losing seats, five voted for Trump and five for Hillary Clinton.

    But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump — Michigan and Pennsylvania — surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. And West Virginia is losing population in part because of a struggling state economy that has been so dependent on coal.

    Arguably, even some of the blue-state gainers may support my general point......



    But that trend also highlights a problem: Some of the people fleeing destructive blue-state taxes and regulations appear to drag their pro-big-government philosophy with them — apparently oblivious to the fact that those policies destroyed the state they are trying to escape.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  • #2
    Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
    The blue-state exodus gains momentum

    As is pointed out in the article, some of the people who are moving from the blue states to escape the idiotic governance and taxation are, oddly enough, bringing their same beliefs and support for that kind of crap to the red states.
    Like plague bearers.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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    • #3
      Once Texas turns blue in the next decade where will Cow Poke go? Or stay and keep fighting the losing fight?

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by DivineOb View Post
        Once Texas turns blue in the next decade where will Cow Poke go? Or stay and keep fighting the losing fight?
        Cow Poke will stay right here serving the Risen Lord.
        "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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        • #5
          The thing is, they are also leaving their bubble. The question is will they continue to vote that way over time - the answer is probably not.

          Except the ones moving to Austin, obviously...

          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

          My Personal Blog

          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            Some of the people fleeing destructive blue-state taxes and regulations appear to drag their pro-big-government philosophy with them — apparently oblivious to the fact that those policies destroyed the state they are trying to escape.
            You read the craziest fantasy articles.

            Higher tax rates (aka 'big government') correlate with increased reported happiness on average, both among US states, and among OECD countries...

            Happiness v Taxes for US States.gif

            happiness plot3.jpg

            (Note the axes are different in those two graphs - happiest and highest taxed is bottom-right on first, and top-right on second)

            There are many things that contribute to happiness and success in a country or state, but overall, higher taxes appear to be among the things that make countries or states more successful and their citizens happier (note: because those taxes are spent on things that benefit people, I'm not suggesting that the act of paying taxes itself makes anyone happy). The happiest countries in the world are Finland Denmark and their taxes are the highest in the OECD at ~45% of GDP.

            Research shows that even rich people are happier in those countries with higher taxes. I guess having governments that spend more on their people and help the needy makes for a nicer society where rich people actually enjoy their lives more and that this more than offsets the pain of higher taxes.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
              You read the craziest fantasy articles.
              I think that pretty much every time I read one of your posts.
              "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                You read the craziest fantasy articles.

                Higher tax rates (aka 'big government') correlate with increased reported happiness on average, both among US states, and among OECD countries...

                [ATTACH=CONFIG]42062[/ATTACH]

                [ATTACH=CONFIG]42064[/ATTACH]

                (Note the axes are different in those two graphs - happiest and highest taxed is bottom-right on first, and top-right on second)

                There are many things that contribute to happiness and success in a country or state, but overall, higher taxes appear to be among the things that make countries or states more successful and their citizens happier (note: because those taxes are spent on things that benefit people, I'm not suggesting that the act of paying taxes itself makes anyone happy). The happiest countries in the world are Finland Denmark and their taxes are the highest in the OECD at ~45% of GDP.

                Research shows that even rich people are happier in those countries with higher taxes. I guess having governments that spend more on their people and help the needy makes for a nicer society where rich people actually enjoy their lives more and that this more than offsets the pain of higher taxes.
                I love how he tries to link happiness to taxes and argues that taxes make people happier. Okay, let’s raise taxes to 100%, that should make everyone really happy!
                "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                  I love how he tries to link happiness to taxes and argues that taxes make people happier. Okay, let’s raise taxes to 100%, that should make everyone really happy!
                  The correlation between higher taxes and happiness seems relatively linear in the range 20%-45% of GDP, but there is no OECD data above that and I presume that it begins to drop off in the higher ranges. I tend to presume the maximum probably occurs about 50% GDP, but it might be slightly higher than that, and it's possible it changes with time, technology, total wealth, and society.

                  Communist countries where one could loosely say they had 100% tax were pretty much uniformly very poor countries prior to the adoption of communism, so it's comparing apples and oranges to compare those with modern OECD nations, but the data on them suggests that happiness was pretty low among them, though its hard to know how much of that effect to attribute to the economic system as opposed to their authoritarian tendencies which we know impact happiness negatively.

                  Overall I would say the data currently points to something like 50% of GDP being taxed as optimal. Essentially that would make the economy an exact mix of public and private, with half the spending being private spending and half being public spending - a perfect middle ground between 100% government communism and 0% government libertarianism. In that sense, I advocate perfect centrism and am smack bang in the middle of an international political spectrum. Of course, as applied to the US (where taxes are currently ~24% of GDP) this would mean I suggest that the US should double its total tax revenues, and so am a leftist in a US content (note that doubling total tax revenues is not the same as doubling income tax rates, and I would suggest that the US raise those increased government revenues by taxing companies, wealth taxes on the rich, financial market taxes etc, not by taxing the average person more highly).

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                    You read the craziest fantasy articles.

                    Higher tax rates (aka 'big government') correlate with increased reported happiness on average, both among US states, and among OECD countries...
                    Which of course explains why they are fleeing "utopia" en masse and going to where they won't be happy.

                    I'm always still in trouble again

                    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      Which of course explains why they are fleeing "utopia" en masse and going to where they won't be happy.
                      It looks like the main effect is that boomers are retiring and moving to sunny states for their retirement. The OP admitted that people moving weren't changing their politics, and were maintaining their old voting behaviors in their new location, so it seems clear they weren't deliberately looking to 'flee' from a blue state to a red state.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        It looks like the main effect is that boomers are retiring and moving to sunny states for their retirement.
                        Oh, yes, that's why the BIGGEST gain (percentage) has actually been North Dakota - everybody knows North Dakota is a veritable land of "sunny beaches" and sunshine year round.

                        (they're moving there for jobs in the Baaken Shale oil & gas boom)

                        The OP admitted that people moving weren't changing their politics, and were maintaining their old voting behaviors in their new location, so it seems clear they weren't deliberately looking to 'flee' from a blue state to a red state.
                        Actually, it didn't say "they", it said "some".

                        But that trend also highlights a problem: Some of the people fleeing destructive blue-state taxes and regulations appear to drag their pro-big-government philosophy with them — apparently oblivious to the fact that those policies destroyed the state they are trying to escape.
                        Last edited by Cow Poke; 01-12-2020, 08:09 AM.
                        "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                          It looks like the main effect is that boomers are retiring and moving to sunny states for their retirement.
                          Which of course explains why they are fleeing Calfiornivania in droves.

                          I'm always still in trouble again

                          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                            The correlation between higher taxes and happiness seems relatively linear in the range 20%-45% of GDP, but there is no OECD data above that and I presume that it begins to drop off in the higher ranges. I tend to presume the maximum probably occurs about 50% GDP, but it might be slightly higher than that, and it's possible it changes with time, technology, total wealth, and society.
                            The average American is paying around 24% of their income in taxes, so looks like the US is already in that good range. Of course, I like how you pull a number out of thin air and declare that must be the ‘happiest tax rate’ with really no evidence to even support the idea that the tax rate has a thing to do with it.

                            Communist countries where one could loosely say they had 100% tax were pretty much uniformly very poor countries prior to the adoption of communism, so it's comparing apples and oranges to compare those with modern OECD nations, but the data on them suggests that happiness was pretty low among them, though its hard to know how much of that effect to attribute to the economic system as opposed to their authoritarian tendencies which we know impact happiness negatively.
                            So even when evidence suggests that tax rates alone, may not play into the happiness index, you ignore it and continue on your merry way.

                            Overall I would say the data currently points to something like 50% of GDP being taxed as optimal. Essentially that would make the economy an exact mix of public and private, with half the spending being private spending and half being public spending - a perfect middle ground between 100% government communism and 0% government libertarianism. In that sense, I advocate perfect centrism and am smack bang in the middle of an international political spectrum. Of course, as applied to the US (where taxes are currently ~24% of GDP) this would mean I suggest that the US should double its total tax revenues, and so am a leftist in a US content (note that doubling total tax revenues is not the same as doubling income tax rates, and I would suggest that the US raise those increased government revenues by taxing companies, wealth taxes on the rich, financial market taxes etc, not by taxing the average person more highly).
                            No it doesn’t. You have presented no data to support that conclusion. You’ve accepted it because it told you everything you wanted to hear. I’ll pass on tax and spend liberal policies I nor most Americans can afford. Taxing companies more will merely make things more expensive idiot. Like I said, I’ll pass on tax and spend liberal policies.
                            Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 01-12-2020, 10:23 AM.
                            "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                            GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                              It looks like the main effect is that boomers are retiring and moving to sunny states for their retirement. The OP admitted that people moving weren't changing their politics, and were maintaining their old voting behaviors in their new location, so it seems clear they weren't deliberately looking to 'flee' from a blue state to a red state.
                              If that is true, why do my husband and I have no plans to return to California when I retire out of the military, this decade and we’ll instead choose a red state to settle down in?
                              "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                              GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

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