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Elizabeth Warren's Pregnant Pause

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  • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
    I hate you. And Lil...


    I'm NEVER gonna hear the end of this!!!

    You know DARN WELL he's NEVER gonna let me forget this!!!


    Sam's correct about how probability works.


    The problem with the polling is that multiple different polls got pretty much the same results. THAT is NOT how probability - or polling - work. Part of why we trust weighted results is their consistency - and if they aren't truly representative, they shouldn't be consistent.

    So yes, sometimes the result simply falls in the lower estimate (poor weathermen know this only too well). But multiple different polls shouldn't have that happen (it's still possible but far less likely - like flipping heads one hundred times in a row).


    Poll herding has been pointed out as a reason polls seem to clump together sometimes. I know that Nate Silver has talked about how the 538 algorithms flag suspected herding. But we often should see different pollsters arrive at similar results if they're polling like groups (i.e., Nevada residents, national poll). That could be an example of herding but at least just as likely could show that pollsters are pulling from representative samples.

    --Sam
    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

    Comment


    • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
      And yet, they seem to not be getting the probable winner right in numbers important races. How well did things go in the last special election?

      Polls don't "pick" the probable winner.

      An election prediction is necessarily a question of probability, not certainty.

      Special elections are not typically well-polled.

      Trump won 2016 from <100,000 votes in three states. Pretty hard to predict that result specifically but it would fall in the ~30% probability.

      --Sam
      "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

      Comment


      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
        And yet, they seem to not be getting the probable winner right in numbers important races. How well did things go in the last special election?
        Lil, Horsey is skeletal - why are you still beating him?


        The problem lies in the tiny sample sizes and the weighting - yes, there was/is a problem. No, they're not all wrong.

        Why on Earth are you debating this with Sam?!

        "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


        "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

        My Personal Blog

        My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sam View Post
          Poll herding has been pointed out as a reason polls seem to clump together sometimes. I know that Nate Silver has talked about how the 538 algorithms flag suspected herding. But we often should see different pollsters arrive at similar results if they're polling like groups (i.e., Nevada residents, national poll). That could be an example of herding but at least just as likely could show that pollsters are pulling from representative samples.

          --Sam
          Zebra - I'd rather give the horse a good once over before worrying about him.

          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

          My Personal Blog

          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

          Comment


          • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
            The issue is they don’t seem to be doing all that great picking the most probable winner lately.
            Yep - sorta. But y'all are way out in the weeds - and you know danged well he'll never admit a problem with polling now.

            FYI: the way you phrased this makes no sense - they 'pick the most probable winner' just fine - not so hot on the actual winner, however. I get you but this isn't really correct.

            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

            My Personal Blog

            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

            Comment


            • I honestly kinda want to ask what the endgame is: the argument that Quinnipac's respondent sample is too much Republican, and the 53% who think it's OK for the President to seek a foreign government's investigation of his political rival is too high or the argument that the Quinnipac's sample is too little Republican and the 53% figure is too low.

              The latter seems problematic in its own right but the former would indicate that Trump's approval rating is ... not good.



              --Sam
              "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                Yep - sorta. But y'all are way out in the weeds - and you know danged well he'll never admit a problem with polling now.

                FYI: the way you phrased this makes no sense - they 'pick the most probable winner' just fine - not so hot on the actual winner, however. I get you but this isn't really correct.
                Sam would never admit there’s an issue with anything that tells him what he wants to hear.
                "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                Comment


                • That's a fitting coda to the day and the last couple hours of explaining how probability works, I guess.



                  Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                  Sam would never admit there’s an issue with anything that tells him what he wants to hear.
                  "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                    I honestly kinda want to ask what the endgame is: the argument that Quinnipac's respondent sample is too much Republican, and the 53% who think it's OK for the President to seek a foreign government's investigation of his political rival is too high or the argument that the Quinnipac's sample is too little Republican and the 53% figure is too low.

                    The latter seems problematic in its own right but the former would indicate that Trump's approval rating is ... not good.

                    --Sam
                    Like I said, polls are limited in what they can ask, how they can ask it, and how they can present the results, and very often all middle ground and nuance gets lost, especially for complex issues.
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                      You can't accurately judge a president until he's been out of office because you don't know everything he'll do until then, and you can't always judge him accurately for a few decades because (i) many documents won't be available before then and (ii) presidential-level decisions can have long-term consequences that won't necessarily be apparent in the short term.

                      However, there aren't any cases where presidents judged to be among the worst during their term in office were later judged to be among the best.
                      Um, Nixon.

                      More on point: Adams, Cleveland
                      Who thinks Nixon was among the best of presidents?

                      According to this survey of surveys, Nixon has always been considered below par, Adams' reputation has been roughly constant, and Cleveland's has dropped.
                      Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                      mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

                      Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                      Mountain Man: … this is how liberals argue these days, with labels instead of ideas.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                        *cough* Truman, Lincoln *cough*
                        What about them? Truman was never AFAICT considered one of the worst presidents.
                        Last edited by Roy; 10-15-2019, 07:54 AM.
                        Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                        mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

                        Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                        Mountain Man: … this is how liberals argue these days, with labels instead of ideas.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Roy View Post
                          Who thinks Nixon was among the best of presidents?

                          According to this survey of surveys, Nixon has always been considered below par, Adams' reputation has been roughly constant, and Cleveland's has dropped.
                          Some historians are warming to him - he probably was the best FP president since FDR.

                          Adams was regarded as a dog coming out of office but history has been much kinder to him. Similar to Cleveland.

                          I've got a busy morning lined up so I'll look at your link later on.

                          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                          My Personal Blog

                          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                            Some historians are warming to him - he probably was the best FP president since FDR.

                            Adams was regarded as a dog coming out of office but history has been much kinder to him. Similar to Cleveland.

                            I've got a busy morning lined up so I'll look at your link later on.
                            Nixon was a crook who surrounded himself with crooks, and a tax fraud, who commited treason in order to aide in his election bid, I don't think any historian is warming to him.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                              Yes -- and that's true for projectiles and politicians alike. So if someone finds something wrong with the model -- with the math or with the model's assumptions, they have the ability to point that out and refine the model so it better predicts reality.
                              And if there is something "wrong enough" with the poll results that they need to adjust the model, they don't know that until they are proven wrong by the actual election. There is no way - even the night before the election - to know that the model or assumptions need to be adjusted.

                              In the case of tracking an asteroid, the actual asteroid is being observed real time, and the closer it gets the more accurate the prediction of impact becomes. The 'model' and math are much more accurate because there are far fewer uncontrollable variables (people).

                              I just think you chose a bad analogy.
                              "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                                Nixon was a crook who surrounded himself with crooks, and a tax fraud, who commited treason in order to aide in his election bid, I don't think any historian is warming to him.
                                You really would help your case if you didn't go to extremes with your attacks, Jim. What "treason" did Nixon commit?
                                "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                                Comment

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